Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | May 5, 2023 | The 9th most profitable film of 2023

[John Marston]

TheWraP says 125m

 

 

 

[Saul Goodman]

 

[Krissykins]

$125m would seem decent considering the tracking thread. But it’s still less than the last film. 

[Sckathian]

I still think it gets a late boost and Marvel are holding out some marketing splash for that but if Guardians does sufficiently underperform it will be interesting to see what the Marvel hangers on do (YouTubers etc.) as it must be a dwindling grift for them as well.

 

It's an interesting time when a franchise begins to buckle. It can turn into quite a death spiral if you don't pause and rebuild.

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, Sckathian said:

I still think it gets a late boost and Marvel are holding out some marketing splash for that but if Guardians does sufficiently underperform it will be interesting to see what the Marvel hangers on do (YouTubers etc.) as it must be a dwindling grift for them as well.

 

It's an interesting time when a franchise begins to buckle. It can turn into quite a death spiral if you don't pause and rebuild.

If Vol 3 can open decently enough to what Variety and Deadline are Box Office Pro are currently considering the range and Gunn delivers... It should still have decent legs and maybe somehow finishing above Vol 1 DOM but below Vol 2 DOM. Trying to stay optimistic. Mario will have finished the bult of its run by May 5th and I assume that Vol 3 trailer playing in front of Mario can't hurt.

 

I do think, if well received, the review embargo should be dropped early.

[Sckathian]

12 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I do think, if well received, the review embargo should be dropped early.

I still think it's best waiting. Mario is king right now so might as well wait for that to die down. Not convinced good reviews wil lead to long legs, seems it's all about the opening now for Marvel (makes sense it's grown to capture its peak audience) - but hopefully good reviews boost that.

 

If you went to the ant Man 3 launch your probably holding out.

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, Sckathian said:

I still think it's best waiting. Mario is king right now so might as well wait for that to die down. Not convinced good reviews wil lead to long legs, seems it's all about the opening now for Marvel (makes sense it's grown to capture its peak audience) - but hopefully good reviews boost that.

 

If you went to the ant Man 3 launch your probably holding out.

Hmm... Ant-man did get pretty middling to bad reviews though. I do think reviews and general word of mouth still matter even for MCU stuff... See Strange 2 and Black Panther 2... BP2 opened with a bit less than Strange 2 but managed to gross a bit more DOM with 454M DOM to Strange 2's 411M DOM.

[Krissykins]

Didn’t get the GOTG trailer before Mario. Got it before Shazam though. 

[Deep Wang]

32 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

 I assume that Vol 3 trailer playing in front of Mario can't hurt.

 

I haven't seen Mario so I can't speak from first hand experience, but I doubt most theaters are showing that trailer in front of Mario?   We were pretty strict about trailers being the same rating as the movie that was playing.  

[JohnnyGossamer]

Honestly, this was my most anticipated MCU anything even prior to Endgame. And, Gunn followed up Vol. 2 with a very well received Suicide Squad follow up. A well received Peacemaker series. And, a well received Guardians Christmas Special. I have high hopes... Even if the box office disappoints, I'm expecting Vol. 3 to be best received MCU anything post-Endgame by audiences (at least those that actually see it given presales are down) and critics. I expect it to be better received overall than Black Widow, Shang Chi, Eternals, Strange, Thor, Blank Panther and Ant-man... Maybe not No Way Home but was a special circumstance.

 

I'll be a bit hurt if it can't at least manage 100M+ DOM OW and I think it will... I still feel that most like the Guardians as a group and, honestly, the only real stain on their names was their incredibly brief appearance in Thor 4. Otherwise, most really enjoyed the gang in Vol. 1, Vol. 2, Infinity War, Endgame and the Christmas Special. 

 

So, with that, I think this really has a shot to be the best MCU trilogy yet. Some will say the new Holland Spider-man flicks or the Captain America trilogy but I think this one really has a shot to stick the landing.

 

So, again, box office aside, I'm pretty optimistic of this one's quality. I can't see Gunn mailing it in a bit as Taika did with Thor 4. I think he has too much of a connection to the characters and story he's telling through them.

[JohnnyGossamer]

9 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I haven't seen Mario so I can't speak from first hand experience, but I doubt most theaters are showing that trailer in front of Mario?   We were pretty strict about trailers being the same rating as the movie that was playing.  

I thought I saw some others on here report that they did get it before Mario last weekend. I haven't seen Mario so I just assumed. My mistake, guys.

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I thought I saw some others on here report that they did get it before Mario last weekend. I haven't seen Mario so I just assumed. My mistake, guys.

 

They might have, I don't know either!  I'm just saying some theaters watch that very carefully.

[CoolioD1]

this is also for me the only upcoming MCU thing i'm excited for, and i do think it'll be really good, but i'm so out on the rest of it that if this does poorly i'll still be a smug little prick about it.

[eXtacy]

Yeah regardless of box office most likely will be a good movie. Guardians my favourite sub-franchise and Gunn yet to do a bad superhero project.

[Saul Goodman]

WB would be really worried if this under performs massively. It's funny how a lot is riding on this movie at the moment!

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

$125m would seem decent considering the tracking thread. But it’s still less than the last film. 

 

It's got a (rumored) $250M production budget.  $125M DOM is what it really needs to open to, or we could see the 1st Marvel non-Covid theatrical money loser (aka, won't profit til streaming and beyond) in awhile, since I don't expect INT to more than roughly match DOM...

[JohnnyGossamer]

Just now, CoolioD1 said:

this is also for me the only upcoming MCU thing i'm excited for, and i do think it'll be really good, but i'm so out on the rest of it that if this does poorly i'll still be a smug little prick about it.

One the refreshing things about this trilogy is that it's pretty much the only self-contained MCU trilogy aside from using Thanos in the first one but that actually his first legit appearance in anything outside a 5 second end credit scene... But, Captain America, Thor, Ant-man will forced some crap in there in including other characters from other moves. These days this actually feels almost like a throwback. Pretty all superheroes stuff has crap shoehorned... Even the DC ones shoehorn a lot it. Guardians does a bit too but not like the others.

 

I think the marketing looks great but I get others complaining that they're emphasizing the fun and hijinks enough. But, this one looks like it will succeed in all the ways Ant-man failed honestly. It looks better aesthetically. Given how well we know the characters, the heavy dramatic beats should hit. Gunn nailed that stuff in the first two. He'll do it again here. Gunn is very adept at directing cosmic stuff as seen by his Guardians whereas Peyton Reed was completely out of his element in the quantum realm... Just not in his bag there at all. 

 

The Guardians movie more than any other set of movies in the MCU have a pretty distinct director's stamp all over them. Vol. 2 was a lot more cinematic than just about all the MCU stuff otherwise. 

 

So, yeah, ticket sales are down and that's a bummer... I don't really care about the MCU at large but more so a bummer because this is last the last Guardians and I was hoping, especially they've kept all the creatives in tact for 3 movies, it would get something like 130M+ OW and decent legs. At this point, that just doesn't seem likely... The OW at least. I still think legs could be good if Gunn delivers.

[JohnnyGossamer]

12 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said:

WB would be really worried if this under performs massively. It's funny how a lot is riding on this movie at the moment!

They shouldn't be... People might just be a bit burned and letdown by MCU. I think Ant-man was a big blow. Wakanda Forever had restored some faith then that happened. There's absolutely no reason to be worried about Gunn. Unless you mean just worried about the state of superheroes movies maybe still making nice money but nothing close to what they were making in the boom there? It's possible that will be a thing... Even the next Batman and Spider-man movies could run into that and those two are biggest superheroes in movies pretty comfortably.

 

I think his Superman will be pretty refreshing and probably break out more than any of the Superman movies that have come out since, well, the original two long, long ago.

 

If you actually get Superman right and it's fun, it can be pretty huge. Not Batman and Spider-man huge but very, very big. I think he can capture the sense of fun. Whatever that latest Superman was and even the Singer one... Neither really captured a sense of fun... Neither really even tried to... They were busy doing other things and living in the heavy messianic junk that's kind of boring and even antiquated really.

 

Until he starts to really trip up, I have faith in Gunn. His track record in superhero stuff since Vol. 1 is pretty impressive.

[robertman2]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I haven't seen Mario so I can't speak from first hand experience, but I doubt most theaters are showing that trailer in front of Mario?   We were pretty strict about trailers being the same rating as the movie that was playing.  

I gotten this, Barbie, About My Father, Transformers, Fast X and the Flash between my two screenings

[Saul Goodman]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

They shouldn't be... People might just be a bit burned and letdown by MCU. I think Ant-man was a big blow. Wakanda Forever had restored some faith then that happened. There's absolutely no reason to be worried about Gunn. Unless you mean just worried about the state of superheroes movies maybe still making nice money but nothing close to what they were making in the boom there? It's possible that will be a thing... Even the next Batman and Spider-man movies could run into that and those two are biggest superheroes in movies pretty comfortably.

 

I think his Superman will be pretty refreshing and probably break out more than any of the Superman movies that have come out since, well, the original two long, long ago.

 

If you actually get Superman right and it's fun, it can be pretty huge. Not Batman and Spider-man huge but very, very big. I think he can capture the sense of fun. Whatever that latest Superman was and even the Singer one... Neither really captured a sense of fun... Neither really even tried to... They were busy doing other things and living in the heavy messianic junk that's kind of boring and even antiquated really.

 

Until he starts to really trip up, I have faith in Gunn. His track record in superhero stuff since Vol. 1 is pretty impressive.

I mean Shazam 2 bombed out of the gate, Ant-Man 3 failed to match the first movie's gross. If a well received GoTG Vol.3 under performs that's a bad sign for both studios. Superman Legacy would be lucky to match MoS numbers and that was coming right after peak DC era of TDK, while Avengers/Iron Man 3 were breaking box office records in that year span.

Edited April 16, 2023 by Saul Goodman