Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | May 5, 2023 | The 9th most profitable film of 2023

[MovieMan89]

24 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I’m a little late regarding the ‘edgelord’ discussion, but I would definitely say that it’s a pretty accurate description of Gunn’s style. Much of his work relies on the kind of shock humor that was all the rage post-South Park, and he’s not exactly shy about dealing with some dark and morbid subject matter. 

69% RT a win then? 

[Eric S'ennui]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Oh my God it´s extremely rare for a movie to drop 18% after 100 reviews, especially with a 7.0 average, stop with this rotten score nonsense 

 

And while MCU does have a story of audience reception agreeing with critics recently, there are examples of movies from them in their 70´s getting A´s on CinemaScore. This movie reviews isn´t simply a case of opinions being mostly mid, people are just divided, you just have to read the reviews [or look at how Metacritic is way higher than Thor and MOM despite the %], this can lead to a very different audience reception. So, predicting bad multiplier based on reviews alone is simply absurd. 

 

 

Yeah I'm lost to this whole handwringing here. Like its RT score is fine right now and there's nothing that indicates some dramatic downfall. Like this is what Marvel movies have typically gotten and people who have seen it said they like it as much as other popular Marvel movies.

 

It really does feel like people here are desperately doing this Chicken Little schtick just because they're bored.

[BluKyberCrystal]

12 minutes ago, Eric Foreman said:

Yeah I'm lost to this whole handwringing here. Like its RT score is fine right now and there's nothing that indicates some dramatic downfall. Like this is what Marvel movies have typically gotten and people who have seen it said they like it as much as other popular Marvel movies.

 

It really does feel like people here are desperately doing this Chicken Little schtick just because they're bored.

Not exactly.

 

https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/guide/all-marvel-cinematic-universe-movies-ranked/

 

MCU has a ridiculous amount of movies 80% and up. 19 of 31, if you don't count Vol. 3. 3 others at 79%. The most likely thing is for Vol. 3 to end up mid 70s, which puts it firmly in the bottom third.

Edited May 1, 2023 by BluKyberCrystal

[Eric S'ennui]

2 minutes ago, BluKyberCrystal said:

Not exactly.

 

https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/guide/all-marvel-cinematic-universe-movies-ranked/

 

MCU has a ridiculous amount of movies 80% and up. 19 of 31, if you don't count Vol. 3. 3 others at 79%. The most likely thing is for Vol. 3 to end up mid 70s, which puts it firmly in the bottom third.

I mean it's still close enough and we don't need this insipid and obnoxious hyperbole and concern trolling regardless, so...yeah.

[M37]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

It's absolutely insane how a week ago people were talking how it'd be 70-80 but now that it's tracking much higher it's still somehow terrible 

What I said a week ago was that the total sales and pace at that time were in such a bad spot that if things didn't break right - like we got AMWQ level reviews and similar limp to the finish - that the floor was way lower than most had in mind, but over $100M was still possible even with an average trek form there (range was $80-$105M). But of course, everyone just focused on the lower bound value as if it were a pinpoint forecast

 

Since then things have broken well, in that reviews were mostly good, Disney released them early along with WOM screenings, and that has helped sales picked up, so the range including the floor has come up. But - at least IMO - there's still a lot of work to be done to even reach the lower bound of PRO's most recent $110-$130M range, which is still a value well below many had it pegged before we had any hard ticketing data in hand

[PrinceRico]

Well it Monday and it already at 77 so I think it’s not unrealistic for it to settle around 72 to 74 on RT. Definitely not what people was expecting before last Friday. 

[M37]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think there was any prediction of this opening to 70m !!! There is this legendary post from @M37 about 80-105m OW based on sales trend. But its not absolute. He has updated his trend as well. I dont think we even have a crazy club about this missing 1st movie OW or 100m OW or even below Ant 3 OW. 

Before last Thursday, those first two would have been interesting, and even now the third one is by my math still in toss-up range. But arrow is pointing up, so probably few takers

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

GOTG 3 is now at 77% on RT. Usully these movies have 300/350 reviews and so far, we've had a little more than 100.

 

No idea about the final tomatometer, but it can go both ways. Getting rotten would be a truly disaster, getting less than Love and Thunder (which wasn't rotten ) and not rotten would also be a disaster.

 

All in all, I'm curious about sales. 

It's not going rotten man, be real. That would be an EXTREME outlier. Films drop but they don't usually drop this much. It'll probably settle in the low-mid 70s, at worst it goes in the 60s.

[thajdikt]

I wouldn´t be surprised if this is probably be 5-10% lower than it would have been if it wasn´t for the darker stuff that clearly has divided some, but then again  maybe that´s me just coping.  I just see so many positive comments about this. It seems so many are loving it. Letterboxd reviews are very strong and I mean from critics who have slaughtered stuff like Ant-Man,  not just random fans. Metacritic is also solid. Really curious to see the audience reception because I feel like it could go both ways. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by thajdikt

[PrinceRico]

Do we know what overseas is looking like. I know tracking for China is awful, but what about the other markets?

[thajdikt]

1 minute ago, PrinceRico said:

Do we know what overseas is looking like. I know tracking for China is awful, but what about the other markets?

It´s not encouraging, we will see what the projection from Deadline is tomorrow. They usually post Tuesday the week of release. It better be 225M+ worldwide opening or we have a big problem

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Do we know what overseas is looking like. I know tracking for China is awful, but what about the other markets?

HK presales are below Quantumania

 

South Korea probably will open similar to Quantumania

 

Germany last checked was pretty dismal

[PrinceRico]

6 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

HK presales are below Quantumania

 

South Korea probably will open similar to Quantumania

 

Germany last checked was pretty dismal

So interest seems to be down everywhere 

[John Marston]

It will be hard to claim a 650m or so gross is good in any shape or form when most easily expected this to be the highest grossing film of the franchise when it was first announced thanks to goodwill not only f rom GOTG 1 and 2 but IW/Endgame 

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

It will be hard to claim a 650m or so gross is good in any shape or form when most easily expected this to be the highest grossing film of the franchise when it was first announced thanks to goodwill not only f rom GOTG 1 and 2 but IW/Endgame 

 

With a production budget between $232-$250M, we can declare it not a flop at 2x.  So, about $500M WW.  Now, I find that "not a flop" means good.  I mean, yes, it could be better, but that's the baseline, "okay, this is an okay number, don't fully panic".

 

So, we'll see if this movie gets there WW...it should, but the MCU is in a weird place right now, especially INT, so I'm not betting on anything...

 

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

16 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Critics and audiences usually parallel on MCU movies, so with MOM reviews it would likely mean a B+ Cinemascore, no? I'd be surprised if went down that far (I was thinking at leat an A-), but then again TSS got a B+ and this sounds more akin to that than the first two Guardians so IDK.

Oops I accidentally caused a bit of a ruckus. Forgot my golden rule: Do not enter review discourse.

 

Anyway for what it’s worth I wasn’t trying to imply things were bad for the film just making an observation. And as I said here I still think the response to the film will be I better, just speculating based on recent trends. I’ve been on the realistically optimistic side of things for this movie and also agree some folks are overreacting on this movie’s downfall.
 

Probably should have expanded a bit more and made my point clearer. My bad 

Edited May 1, 2023 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[Mr Roark]

The main reason people were hyped about the MCU was the interconnection between movies and storylines all leading up to a huge finale.

GotG3 is a standalone send off instead of something leading to something greater. Add to that superhero fatigue and mixed Phase 4/5 films and there you have your MCU stagnating with GotG3 likely being the worst of the three at the box-office.

There’s just little hype.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Mr Roark

[ChipDerby]

Just crunched a lot of numbers, and I was unable to find any direct correlation between RT scores, RT avg, MC score, RT audience, IMDB scores... and box office. MAYBE a hint of it between MC and box office, but it's a pretty flat line.

 

There IS a pretty decent correlation between MC scores and box office multiplier.

 

But if anyone is curious:

Average MCU RT score: 81.3

Average MCU RT avg: 7.1

Average MCU RT audience: 83.8

Average MCU MC score: 66.8

Average MCU IMDB: 7.3

Average MCU multiplier: 2.72

Only 4 MCU films have a multiplier under 2.3 - Civil War, Black Widow, MOM, and AMWQ

[JohnnyGossamer]

Eh... Metacritic is still at 67 with 41 reviews. Right in line with Guardians Vol. 3 and Infinity War. Just seems a little more divisive. Will be interesting to see how audiences react.

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by kayumanggi