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Stewart

July 2017 has the potential to be the Largest Month Ever | March 2017 becomes largest March ever

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After writing a long-ass post on Reddit about how I believe July 2017 can become the largest ever, I thought I'd copy it here, to keep all you guys' opinions.

 

But first: March 2017

 

All information below concerns calendar grosses, not adjusted for inflation, as per BoxOfficeMojo

 

As you can see from BOM, March 2017 grossed a whopping $1,166,562,431 (EDIT: actuals now in) $1,166,491,996 (inc. estimate for Friday 31st). This is not only the largest March ever (beating March 2016's $948,696,754 by over $200M) but it is also the 13th largest month ever. Below you can see the table for the top 15 months:

 

Rank     Month     Gross
1     July, 2011     $1,395,075,899
2     July, 2016     $1,371,410,333
3     July, 2013        $1,370,748,402
4     July, 2012     $1,320,887,484
5     July, 2010     $1,319,401,012
6     December, 2015     $1,304,989,205
7     July, 2007     $1,304,384,470
8     June, 2013     $1,246,141,267
9     July, 2008     $1,245,213,649
10     June, 2015     $1,233,722,360
11     December, 2016     $1,190,588,602
12     July, 2015     $1,183,636,438
13     March, 2017     $1,166,491,996
14     July, 2009     $1,161,129,344
15     July, 2006     $1,157,640,553

 

Some results we can see from this, is that March 2017 has also beating beaten every calendar gross for May, which may change the industry perspective on release dates as May is generally considered to be the start of the Summer Season, but clearly Summer (or a Holiday season in the case of Star Wars) is not a necessity.

 

Another notable point is that 10/15 of the top grossing months are of July, in fact all of the top 5 are. So based on the stellar start to 2017, is it reasonable to believe that July 2017 could be making this chart too?

 

Looking at the top 3 films for each of the top 5:

 

July 2011:

  • Harry Potter 7 part 2 - $318m
  • Transformers 3 - $273m
  • Captain America 1 - $117m
  • 4th to 11th made over $30m

 

July 2016:

  • Secret Life of Pets - $296m
  • Finding Dory - $138m
  • Tarzan - $121m
  • 4th to 13th made over $30m

 

July 2013:

  • Despicable Me 2 - $313m
  • Grown Ups 2 - $106m
  • The Heat - $104m
  • 4th to 14th made over $30m

 

July 2012:

  • Dark Knight Rises - $304m
  • Amazing Spiderman 1 - $244m
  • Ted - $157m
  • 4th to 9th made over $30m

 

July 2010:

  • Twilight Eclipse - $218m
  • Despicable Me - $185m
  • Inception - $184m
  • 4th to 11th made over $30m

 

So, what can we extrapolate for this in general. Well firstly each one, except 2010, has had a big hit making over $300m (or $296 for SLoP). Then either had another big grosser (2011 and 2012) or had more mid level grossers (2016 and 2013). 2010 seems to be a special case where instead of one outright winner, there were 3 films not far off from each other. It is clear to see why July 2011 made the top, as it had two big hits and a decent amount of smaller ones.

 

So looking ahead to July 2017, to top the leaderboard, we need 1 or 2 big hits, and several smaller hits. Here's my take on some films which I think could contribute to make July 2017 the largest month ever.

 

Cars 3, although releasing on June 16th, it's gross is largely expected to increase beyond Cars 2's $191m. Most estimates seem to suggest this will make in the region of $240m, so after an opening weekend of $75m, weekdays of $35m for a first week of $110m, estimating a week-on-week drop of 45% gives $60m second week, leaving roughly $60m to be grossed in July (estimating remaining $10m beyond July). So Cars 3 contributes mid-level with $60m.

 

Transformers 5, releasing June 23rd, is expected to fall domestically from the previous installment after fatigue. It should open large but fall fast, being frontloaded. I currently have an estimate of $200m, with an $85m opening weekend and $30m weekdays, leaving roughly $80m of gross left for July, and a further $5m beyond that. So Transformers 5 contributes a mid to high level with $80m.

 

Despicable Me 3, releasing June 30th, will have one day of June, while most of it's gross will be July. Trailer reactions seem to be positive and most expect this to continue Illuminations streak and improve upon DM2. Using the 2nd's adjusted gross gives a total of $400m, which seems about right, after an opening weekend of $120m. As this is expected to be slightly front loaded, I'd say $50m OD inc. previews, leaving $350m left, and again using DM2 adj., giving DM3 a gross of $25m from August onwards. So Despicable Me 3 contributes a mega hit with $325m.

 

Spider-Man: Homecoming, releasing July 7th, following the good reactions from the trailers, and the inclusion of RDJ to the film, most expect this to perform similarly to Iron Man 2, with $130m OW and $310m overall. However due to good word of mouth, and likely to be one of the better Spiderman films, it's more likely to perform with $130m OW and $330m total. Having over 3 weeks in July should allow it to gather some decent gross, with $270m possible. So Spider-Man: Homecoming contributes a mega hit with $270m.

 

Next up we have War for the Planet of the Apes, releasing July 14th. This is also an increasingly popular franchise with large potential to outgross its predecessor. Pegged in at an OW of $100m, and a total of $250m, due to strong competition, this should make about $190m in its July frame, leaving $60m for August and beyond. So War for the Planet of the Apes contributes a big hit with $190m.

 

The final two, Dunkirk and Valerian, both releasing on July 21st, have had some strange predictions behind them. Some believe Dunkirk to have a total under $100m while others believe its OW could be over $100m, being a surprise breakout. For the sake of this, and its 10 days in July, I shall go in the middle and say Dunkirk contributes a large $100m to July 2017, with an OW of $55m, weekdays of $15m and 2nd weekend of $30m (due to WOM). The other stranger is Valerian. Some believe this to bomb similarly to Ghost in the Shell, while others believe it can make well over $100m. I shall say its 10 days get Valerian a contribution of $80m to July 2017.

 

The final weekend, starting July 28th, gives each newcomer just 4 days to make some bucks. The wide notable openers are Atomic Blonder and The Emoji Movie. I haven't seen any predictions for Atomic Blonde, but it seems that perhaps $40m over the 4 day frame doesn't seem too far fetched. Next up, the Emoji Movie is largely expected to be frontloaded and have bad WOM, but it should pull a nice $30m-50m OW through pure curiosity of the GA. I've put The Emoji Movie at a moderate $50m for the 4-day frame.

 

Below you can see a table summarising the grosses in July 2017 above in order:

  • Despicable Me 3 - $325m
  • Spider-Man: Homecoming - $270m
  • War for the Planet of the Apes - $190m
  • Dunkirk - $100m
  • Transformers 5 - $80m
  • Valerian - $80m
  • Cars 3 - $60m
  • Emoji Movie - $50m
  • Atomic Blonde - $40m

 

Remember these grosses are just what I believe they could make in July only. Looking through the release schedule, I believe a further 5 or so movies may be able to hit the mark for $30m in July, giving a scorecard as follows:

July 2017:

  • Despicable Me 3 - $325m
  • Spider-Man: Homecoming - $270m
  • War for the Planet of the Apes - $190m
  • 4th to 14th over the $30m mark

 

This stacks up compared to the top 5 July's at July 2011 level, or possibly even more. I'm going to say now that July 2017 is the biggest month ever, making $1,425m in calendar grosses, baring in mind my prediction above gives $1,345m if the other 5 movies make just $30m, so its not hard to believe that the other $80m could be made up from those 5, or perhaps the movies grossing <$30m.

 

What are your July 2017 Calendar Gross predictions? And do you think it can break the record?

Also this was my first ever, in-depth, box office analysis that I've formally written up on here, any constructive feedback would be much appreciated :)

 

Sorry for the direct copy/paste from my Reddit post, but I didn't feel there was anything I particularly needed to change. As I mention at the bottom, any feedback and thoughts are very much welcome!

 

(For those wondering, here's my Reddit post)

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2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

You might be overestimating Despicable Me 3 there, especially considering that its first day is in June.

 

I have seen others predicting about that level for it, although I suppose the tough competition this year could limit its legs. I did factor in the first day in june by taking off the $50M I estimated for OD.

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1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

 

I have seen others predicting about that level for it, although I suppose the tough competition this year could limit its legs. I did factor in the first day in june by taking off the $50M I estimated for OD.

I think that $375m is way too high, then.

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I think overall you are in the high side, particularly with Spiderman and DM3 but your analysis is sound and well thought out. 

 

Would be good for the box office if this happened, particularly since it would spill over into what is looking to be a bad august. 

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Great thread and post

 

I really love to follow monthly rankings. While I see DM3 falling slightly below your prediction, I am sure SMH is going to do better than expected. Also, Apes 3 and Dunkirk both are looking huge.

 

Right now I would say it's a close race for best July ever

 

320M - SMH (125M - 60M - 35M - 20M = 240M + strong Summer dailies)

250M - DM3 (65M + 55M + 35M + 20M + 12M = 187M + dailies)

205M - Apes3 (90M - 45M - 25M = 160M + dailies)

105M - Dunkirk (55M - 30M = 85M + dailies)

 

880M

 

Add in TF5 (80M), Valerian (55M), Cars3 (50M), Baby Driver (35M), Emoji (30M), The House (40M), Girls Trip (30M)...

 

1.2B without late legs from many movies

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Spoiler

May 2017 ($1.1 billion)

  1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $165 million/$420 million
  2. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $75 million 4-day/$160 million
  3. Baywatch: $55 million 4-day/$145 million
  4. Alien - Covenant: $55 million/$140 million
  5. Snatched: $30 million/$115 million
  6. King Arthur - Legend of the Sword: $15 million/$35 million
  7. Everything, Everything: $10 million/$30 million
  8. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - The Long Haul: $7.5 million/$25 million
  9. Lowriders: $2.5 million/$5 million

June 2017 ($1.4 billion)

  1. Despicable Me 3: $110 million/$320 million
  2. Wonder Woman: $100 million/$245 million
  3. Cars 3: $75 million/$225 million
  4. Transformers - The Last Knight: $75 million/$170 million
  5. The Mummy: $50 million/$135 million
  6. All Eyez on Me: $25 million/$85 million
  7. The House: $25 million/$75 million
  8. Rough Night: $15 million/$50 million
  9. Baby Driver: $15 million/$50 million
  10. It Comes At Night: $5 million/$15 million
  11. Amityville - The Haunting: $7.5 million/$15 million
  12. Wish Upon: $5 million/$10 million
  13. 47 Meters Down: $5 million/$10 million

July 2017 ($1.09 billion)

  1. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $135 million/$345 million
  2. Dunkirk: $55 million/$240 million
  3. War for the Planet of the Apes: $65 million/$180 million
  4. Girls Trip: $25 million/$110 million
  5. The Emoji Movie: $30 million/$100 million
  6. Atomic Blonde: $15 million/$50 million
  7. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $12.5 million/$35 million
  8. Midnight Sun: $7.5 million/$20 million
  9. An Inconvenient Sequel: $5 million/$15 million

 

August 2017 ($465 million)

  1. The Dark Tower: $40 million/$135 million
  2. Annabelle - Creation: $30 million/$70 million
  3. All Saints: $15 million/$60 million
  4. All I See Is You: $15 million/$50 million
  5. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $15 million/$50 million
  6. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $15 million/$45 million
  7. Tulip Fever: $7.5 million/$25 million
  8. Villa Capri: $7.5 million/$20 million
  9. Polaroid: $7.5 million/$15 million

 

September 2017 ($775 million) 

  1. IT: $55 million/$175 million 
  2. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $50 million/$135 million 
  3. Ninjago: $40 million/$125 million 
  4. American Made: $20 million/$65 million 
  5. Granite Mountain: $20 million/$55 million 
  6. Battle of the Sexes: $7.5 million/$45 million 
  7. The Solutrean: $15 million/$40 million 
  8. Flatliners: $15 million/$35 million 
  9. American Assassin: $10 million/$30 million 
  10. Samson: $7.5 million/$25 million 
  11. Renegades: $10 million 4-day/$20 million 
  12. Leap: $5 million/$17.5 million 
  13. Friend Request: $2.5 million/$5 million 

 

October 2017 ($785 million) 

  1. Blade Runner 2049: $60 million/$205 million 
  2. My Little Pony: $30 million/$95 million 
  3. mother!: $20 million/$85 million 
  4. Cloverfield 3: $30 million/$75 million 
  5. Geostorm: $25 million/$70 million 
  6. The Snowman: $20 million/$65 million 
  7. Thank You For Your Service: $15 million/$55 million 
  8. Saw - Legacy: $20 million/$35 million 
  9. Insidious - Chapter 4: $15 million/$35 million 
  10. The Mountain Between Us: $7.5 million/$20 million
  11. War With Grandpa: $5 million/$15 million 
  12. Same Kind of Different As Me: $5 million/$15 million 
  13. Marshall: $5 million/$10 million 

 

November 2017 ($1.48 billion) 

  1. Justice League: $170 million/$355 million 
  2. Coco: $90 million 5-day/$275 million 
  3. Thor - Ragnorak: $95 million/$230 million 
  4. The Star: $35 million/$150 million 
  5. Murder on the Orient Express: $55 million 5-day/$140 million 
  6. Daddy's Home 2: $35 million/$105 million 
  7. Red Sparrow: $25 million/$75 million 
  8. A Bad Moms Christmas: $15 million/$50 million 
  9. Suburbicon: $10 million/$45 million 
  10. Wonder: $10 million/$35 million 

 

December 2017 ($1.44 billion) 

  1. Star Wars - The Last Jedi: $255 million/$730 million 
  2. The Greatest Showman on Earth: $25 million/$165 million 
  3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $25 million/$155 million 
  4. Pitch Perfect 3: $25 million/$125 million 
  5. Downsizing: $15 million/$80 million 
  6. Ferdinand: $15 million/$75 million 
  7. The Six Billion Dollar Man: $10 million/$45 million 
  8. Bastards: $10 million/$35 million 

 

 

Overall, while July 2017 will likely bring in the most since DM3, The House and Baby Driver are all pretty much July releases, June 2017 is technically the strongest calendar slate.

 

And August looks absolutely putrid :o Kingsman, American Made or Blade Runner should move to August 11th or 18th. The Dark Tower isn't going to be big enough competition IMO ($120-140 million DOM sounds about right unless the film gets phenomenal WOM) and then there would be pretty much no competition other than IT and Ninjago until October.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Spidey appeals to kids. It has more overlap than Jurassic World.

Most any kid aged 3 to 9 loves dinosaurs, though :lol: I do agree Spidey will be more light-hearted than JW, so there's more crossover between DM3/Spidey than JW/IO. However, DM3 will likely have similar legs to Minions since the July 4th holiday week will inflate its first seven days, so I think both can coexist.

 

Spidey: $340 million

DM3: $320 million

 

$345 million behind JW/IO's combined total.

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12 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I doubt it unless reviews are terrible.  It has no competition.  

Cars 3? It comes out two weeks earlier, but should still be doing solid enough business when DM3 comes out that I'd call it competition.

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