AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR | 1369.5 M overseas ● 2048.4 M worldwide

[Legion Again]

365 China   

670 DOM    

 

Would only need 965 from OS-China. It will be close, but I still think it will get there.

[Quigley]

Disney has crossed $4B WW this year ($4.12B).

 

http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-opening-weekend-deadpool-2-avengers-infinity-war-china-global-international-box-office-1202398686/

 

Existing movies will propel it to about $4.5B. Then it's got Incredibles 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Christopher Robin, The Nutcracker, Wreck-It Ralph 2 and Mary Poppins Returns.

 

I2: $800M-$1B

AM2: $650-850M

CR: $200-400M

Nutcracker: $400-700M

WR2: $550-750M

MP2: $600-900M

 

Low end: $3.2B

High end: $4.6B

 

Assuming WR2 and MP2 will make some of their money in 2019, the range is revised to $2.45-3.65B. That means a final total of $6.95-8.15B. On the low end, that is the second-biggest yearly total ever for studio, behind Disney's own $7.6B and ahead of current #2, Universal's $6.9B. At the high end it is an all-time record and the first time a studio would cross $8B.

Edited May 27, 2018 by Quigley

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, Quigley said:

Disney has crossed $4B WW this year ($4.12B).

 

http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-opening-weekend-deadpool-2-avengers-infinity-war-china-global-international-box-office-1202398686/

 

Existing movies will propel it to about $4.5B. Then it's got Incredibles 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Christopher Robin, The Nutcracker, Wreck-It Ralph 2 and Mary Poppins Returns.

 

I2: $800M-$1B

AM2: $650-850M

CR: $200-400M

Nutcracker: $400-700M

WR2: $550-750M

MP2: $600-900M

 

Low end: $3.2B

High end: $4.6B

 

Assuming WR2 and MP2 will make some of their money in 2019, the range is revised to $2.45-3.65B. That means a final total of $6.95-8.15B. On the low end, that is the second-biggest yearly total ever for studio, behind Disney's own $7.6B and ahead of current #2, Universal's $6.9B. At the high end it is an all-time record and the first time a studio would cross $8B.

Good analysis. However I think you're better swapping CR and Nutcracker totals, and I think AM2 can go higher.

 

Nice to see that, even on the low end, Disney is killin' it

[Quigley]

31 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Good analysis. However I think you're better swapping CR and Nutcracker totals, and I think AM2 can go higher.

 

Nice to see that, even on the low end, Disney is killin' it

I guess some of the individual grosses may be slightly off on either side, but the important thing is that, when all of them are added together, I would like to think that the range is quite accurate.

[boxofficefreak]

We shall see, maybe there's a bump in actuals similar to last weekend. Eurocup def had an effect and world cup coming up in 2.5 weeks. Will be interesting for sure. 

 

Avengers Ultron legs - $991.704M

Avengers Legs - 1000.690M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Juby]

I still believe in:

$675 mln DOM

$975 mln OS-Ch

$355 mln China

= +$2.005B WW

 

[Asyulus]

Since using Ultron’s OS -C legs results to $991m, and the fact that in terms of domestic IW has surpassed AoU multiplier, I’m not seeing how IW drops to more than 40-45% from the subsequent weekends. Weekend OS percentage will eventually drop.

[Asyulus]

DOM: $670m

OS: $970m

China: $360m (POTUS tracking)

 

For me.

[KeepItU25071906]

as I've said before: 2 bln is still a big question's mark.

 

Welcome in 2010th: you can be enormous, but if you can plenty rivalse in the same time- theaters will cut you legs anyway.

 

 

 

Edited May 28, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[TalismanRing]

4 hours ago, Asyulus said:

DOM: $670m

OS: $970m

China: $360m (POTUS tracking)

 

For me.

Avengers is going to be around $627m after MD. 

 

I don't see it making only $43m (after a $17.5m w/e) more with the next two weeks lacking serious competition and summer days.    Avengers made another $51m after a $11.2m w/e.   GOTG2 did another $49m and it had a 52.9% drop the next w/e against WW.

 

Also Incredibles 2 is coming up.  It may get double bills with that or more likely Disney will try to pump up Solo with them. 

Edited May 28, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Asyulus]

8 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Avengers is going to be around $627m after MD. 

 

I don't see it making only $43m (after a $17.5m w/e) more with the next two weeks lacking serious competition and summer days.    Avengers made another $51m after a $11.2m w/e.   GOTG2 did another $49m and it had a 52.9% drop the next w/e against WW.

 

Also Incredibles 2 is coming up.  It may get double bills with that or more likely Disney will try to pump up Solo with them. 

Just trying to get conservative.. DOM aside, I’m not sure whether Rth state IW Sunday as 6.8m or 5.8m, either typo or not. I’m still expecting $2b WW minimum and I’d be happy for that figure. 

Edited May 28, 2018 by Asyulus

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

Just trying to get conservative.. DOM aside, I’m not sure whether Rth state IW Sunday as 6.8m or 5.8m, either typo or not. I’m still expecting $2b minimum and I’d be happy for that figure. 

I doubt it's a typo.  5.8 would mean ~ a 11% drop and previous MCU films only dropped 3-4%

[Asyulus]

11 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Avengers is going to be around $627m after MD. 

 

I don't see it making only $43m (after a $17.5m w/e) more with the next two weeks lacking serious competition and summer days.    Avengers made another $51m after a $11.2m w/e.   GOTG2 did another $49m and it had a 52.9% drop the next w/e against WW.

 

Also Incredibles 2 is coming up.  It may get double bills with that or more likely Disney will try to pump up Solo with them. 

Is the TA $11.2m figure 5th week or 6th?

 

Also, how’s my OS prediction?

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Asyulus said:

Is the TA $11.2m figure 5th week or 6th?

 

Also, how’s my OS prediction?

6th (June 8-10) and I think that's about where AIW's 6th w/e lands as well and it should be over $640m by then 

[Asyulus]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

6th (June 8-10) and I think that's about where AIW's 6th w/e lands as well and it should be over $640m by then 

$700m still in game?

 

The weekend OS -C percentage drop doesn’t guarantee $2b WW yet.

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

$700m still in game?

 

The weekend OS -C percentage drop doesn’t guarantee $2b WW yet.

If Home Video wasn't releasing mid August and they gave it a re-release Labor Day push then $700m might still be in play.  Without it - not likely

 

 

[Juby]

Not likely at all. With strong competition, Digital HD in late July and Blu-ray/DVD on August 14th this would finish with $670-680 mln.  

[Quigley]

54 minutes ago, Juby said:

Not likely at all. With strong competition, Digital HD in late July and Blu-ray/DVD on August 14th this would finish with $670-680 mln.  

REPOSTING FROM DOMESTIC FORUM

 

Infinity War's Sunday is $6.63M. Monday will drop 20% (at most) to $5.3M. The long weekend total will be $22.7M and the cume-to-date will be $627.9M (at least).

 

Based on its $17.4M weekend, comparison with other Marvel movies's 3-day Memorial weekend gross suggest that it will have a multiplier around 2.2-2.6x [gross made from Memorial Day onwards divided by 3-day Memorial weekend]. This means that it will make about $660-668M.

 

Even a Black Panther-like hold (3.36x) would only take it $680M. $700M is dead.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Continuing with OS box office

Avengers will finish with $355-360M in China, according to the China experts (off-chance of $365M with extension).

 

As for OS–China, using the same method as domestic: AoU's multiplier is 1.68x. Avengers's mulitplier is 2.97x. IM3's multiplier is 1.94x. Civil War's mulitplier is 2.48x.

 

I'll choose a random range for Infinity War near the low end 2.1-2.5x. This gives a range of 946.2 + 13.9 x (2.1 OR 2.5) = $975-981M.

 

ADD IT ALL UP: $1.990-$2.009B

 

Too close to call.

[GraceRandolph]

Disney is so annoying with their early Blu-ray releases

[Thrylos 7]

On 27/5/2018 at 7:14 PM, Thrylos 7 said:

Nah, it won’t do just around 60 million more , cause I expect it to be substantially higher with actuals, os+China+u.s . It will be between 1.990-2.010 in the end.

 

We are at a point where every dollar matters and even small weekday and weekend grosses outside of the U.S will prove to be very significant.

Quoting myself just to point out that the 1.904 from bom yesterday became 1.909,5  today and will surpass 1.910 when the u.s actuals comes so IW needs less than 90 million worldwide to reach 2 billion. Still seems like a lock to me as I have been preaching for ages....