AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR | 1369.5 M overseas ● 2048.4 M worldwide

[1Robert1]

14 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

The 1.904 was also after the whole memorial weekend first estimate(which was a hair over 20 million so it gained over 2 million just from the u.s in the actuals)  and included   Monday.

 

Basically the memorial weekend went like 20.4->21.2-> 22.5 and I think China did better as well.

According to China Box office thread IW was 336 after weekend, and according to BOM it's 333.7. So i'm not sure why you're thinking that it did better.

[Thrylos 7]

6 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

According to China Box office thread IW was 336 after weekend, and according to BOM it's 333.7. So i'm not sure why you're thinking that it did better.

Eeeeh, BOM has it almost 2.5 million less ? Anyway because I was observing the bom numbers for this weekend from their inception the 1.904 initial number included the u.s Monday.

[Ephemeris]

OS actuals: weekend was overestimated by $286k, but the total went up by $3.89M(Edit: I think it already includes the Monday OS number):

 

Country (click to view chart)	Rank	Days in Wknd	Weekend Gross	% Change	Screens/ Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
FOREIGN TOTAL	3	3	$32,214,038	-62.6%	36	-19	$894,834	$1,286,889,282	5

Edited May 29, 2018 by Ephemeris

[Asyulus]

Let us say China adds more $24m to the total. That’s $1.310b OS.

 

China is $336m total by end of Sunday. $1.286b - $336m = $950m OS-C currently.

 

DOM should do $680m final.

[boxofficefreak]

 

"Part 1OS-China actuals" 

"Possible 3M increase from calculated estimate of 946.2Million. "

 

I cited "Part 1" so..... couldn't you deduce that there could be other iterations? I also mentioned Possible further implying that it could be up for change. 

 

 

38 minutes ago, Ephemeris said:

The foreign total and weekend number are both still the same estimates, actuals have not been reported yet.

 

The China total is off because boxofficemojo always uses exchange rates the wrong way. They always recalculate the entire USD total every week using the latest ER. China total is actually higher than what they say it is.

 

OS-China actuals are not in yet.

 

Just b/c it seems like you're in the business of "pointing things out", would you happen to guess how multinational firms calculate overseas earnings on financial disclosures?

Regarding volatility of exchange rates there's an accounting method of constant currency that's used by firms to establish core earning reports. Constant currency calculated on a consistent manner then further reconciled with GAAP methods allows investors to fully interpret the data. 

 

 Feel free to look it up and educate yourself so you can nitpick others more eloquently in the future. 

 

What your'e saying about BOM is a farce because 

A) you're implying that the site is explicitly using a fluctuating ER calculation, which is not true. They have a varying exchange rate calculation that's calibrated based on past ER rates for a given period and also updates international OS #s on a recent ER period.

.B) They do not only calculate exchange rates on a weekly basis, it's a combination of both.

 

 

Exhibit1

 

 

 

 

 

[1Robert1]

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$627,649,180	32.8%
+ Foreign:	$1,286,889,282	67.2%
= Worldwide:	$1,914,538,462

[1Robert1]

33 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Eeeeh, BOM has it almost 2.5 million less ? Anyway because I was observing the bom numbers for this weekend from their inception the 1.904 initial number included the u.s Monday.

Avengers: Infinity War grossed an estimated $32.5M internationally over the 3-day weekend. International total through Sunday is $1.283B, global total through Sunday is $1.905B

 

So it didn't include Monday, and it's UNDER 1.91 after SUNDAY.

[boxofficefreak]

18 minutes ago, Ephemeris said:

OS actuals: weekend was overestimated by $286k, but the total was underestimated by $3.89M:

 

Country (click to view chart)	Rank	Days in Wknd	Weekend Gross	% Change	Screens/ Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
FOREIGN TOTAL	3	3	$32,214,038	-62.6%	36	-19	$894,834	$1,286,889,282	5

 

Much, much better. Feed us more #s and less tangential nonsense. 

[Quigley]

UPDATE BASED ON WEEKEND ACTUALS

Estimated NA total: $660-668M

Estimated China total: $355-360M

Estimated OS total: $980-987M

 

WW total: $1.995-2.015B

[Andreas]

Doesn't the new updated OS figure include Monday?

[Quigley]

10 minutes ago, Andreas said:

Doesn't the new updated OS figure include Monday?

BOM says May 27. Could be a mistake, but how could one know?

Edited May 29, 2018 by Quigley

[boxofficefreak]

1 minute ago, Quigley said:

BOM says May 27. Could be a mistake, but who could one know?

Resident expert  Ephemeris

[Thrylos 7]

43 minutes ago, Andreas said:

Doesn't the new updated OS figure include Monday?

Just the u.s Monday if I had to guess. I don’t think that after the first 2-3 week’s os revenue is added on a daily basis.

[Ephemeris]

First off, there's really no need get so passive aggressive. It's not like I'm attacking you or something, I'm just trying to help and I never insulted anyone or anything. Don't understand why you seem to be taking something very impersonal so personally.

 

Also, yes, I am aware of what constant currency is, it's just not really relevant here since that's not what boxofficemojo is using for their per market totals.

1 hour ago, boxofficefreak said:

What your'e saying about BOM is a farce because 

A) you're implying that the site is explicitly using a fluctuating ER calculation, which is not true. They have a varying exchange rate calculation that's calibrated based on past ER rates for a given period and also updates international OS #s on a recent ER period.

.B) They do not only calculate exchange rates on a weekly basis, it's a combination of both.

 

 

Exhibit1

 

 

 

 

 

First off, boxofficemojo's overall OS totals(and the combined OS weekend totals) are not affected by their wonky usage of ER for the per market totals(pretty sure the combined totals come from the studios themselves)

 

But for their per market totals, they most definitely do use varying ER to recalculate the total each week. It's not combined with anything else.

 

Boxofficemojo's per market totals come from many separate sources, which usually report numbers in local currencies. Boxofficemojo then calculates the USD per market totals using the latest ER(yes they recalculate those every week). So their per market totals for most markets are accurate in local currency, but a bit off in USD(for some markets it's the other way around though). The overall USD total however does not depend on their per market totals(Like I said I think it comes from the studios themselves), so that is unaffected.

 

Not sure what you mean to prove with that picture btw? It just shows that ER had an effect, but it doesn't say anything about how it affected it.

 

For most markets, they recalculate the total each week using the latest total in local currency and the latest ER(this includes China). Nothing else goes into it. That causes issues at times, where the total goes down when the ER gets worse and goes up again when it gets better, like this:

 

CHINA
Weekend Box Office

2017

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross / % Change		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Jul. 28–30	1	$131,773,219	-	$146,942,986	1
Aug. 4–6	1	$162,397,405	+23.2%	$469,638,678	2
Aug. 11–13	1	$83,921,355	-48.3%	$679,495,519	3
Aug. 18–20	1	$35,969,957	-57.1%	$768,421,294	4
Aug. 25–27	2	$16,277,906	-54.8%	$810,843,045	5
Sept. 1–3	3	$8,713,726	-46.5%	$848,349,872	6
Sept. 8–10	4	$3,824,495	-56.1%	$866,010,440	7
Sept. 15–17	5	$1,178,189	-69.2%	$861,802,414	8
Sept. 22–24	6	$880,032	-25.3%	$858,811,960	9
Sept. 29–Oct. 1	14	$201,885	-77.1%	$851,645,984	10
Oct. 6–8	10	$587,061	+190.8%	$853,239,087	11
Oct. 13–15	14	$133,732	-77.2%	$863,080,932	12
Oct. 20–22	20	$91,655	-31.5%	$858,015,301	13
Oct. 27–29	19	$40,914	-55.4%	$854,248,869	14

 

Compare those numbers in local currency to another source that has those numbers in local currency(like Maoyan), and you'll see they are in fact just using that varying ER, and there aren't any other calculations going into it.

 

This also causes issues like Guardians of the Galaxy's China gross being listed too low because they updated it in 2017, when the ER was worse:

May 5–7, 2017 (US $1 = 6.9031 Chinese Yuan Renminbi)

< Prev Wk Currency: Return to IndexUS DollarsChinese Yuan Renminbi Next Wk >

TW LW Movie Weekend Gross Change Gross-to-Date Week

17

-

Guardians of the Galaxy

$12,820

-

$86,346,366

135

 

The total was actually $10M+ higher than that, but they updated the gross in 2017 and in doing so they also recalculated the total using 2017's worse ER...

 

So yeah, they are in fact just using that varying ER, and there aren't any other calculations going into it. That's how they do things, and yeah, it's far from ideal...

Edited May 29, 2018 by Ephemeris

[Ephemeris]

47 minutes ago, Quigley said:

BOM says May 27. Could be a mistake, but how could one know?

I think it is a mistake. I checked Solo, and they do say it's as of May 28 for that... Since that's Disney too, and since the total is so much higher than the estimate(especially without the weekend being higher), it probably does include the OS Monday number.

Edited May 29, 2018 by Ephemeris

[boxofficefreak]

28 minutes ago, Ephemeris said:

First off, there's really no need get so passive aggressive. It's not like I'm attacking you or something, I'm just trying to help and I never insulted anyone or anything. Don't understand why you seem to be taking something very impersonal so personally.

 

 

          While you say you're trying to "help" this is the second instance where you nitpicked data and argued over accounting methods. You initiated an argument last week concerning aggregate method accounting vs ema, when the data was readily available and and the interpretation is user's context. 

            I've glanced over your post (tltr) but your main points are "varying" and "fluctuating", right?

 

Wolf Warrior 2 (WW2) Closing wknd 27/10/2017

                                                

                                                    $6.651853**                 $6.620050***

                       YUAN                   27/10/17  ER USD            20/10/17 ER USD

WW2          5.679Billion*               $853,747,069        $857,848,506

 

If you were correct in your assessment (how BOM is wrong, but you are right) their total OS total would have been any of those two numbers BOM only used "weekly exchange rates" calculation. You are wrong, it's okay. 

 

I will just fluctuate my way out of this discussion with you because you're just needlessly repeating yourself. 

 

*ENT group

**X-rates

***X-rates

[Ephemeris]

@boxofficefreak, you misunderstood/misread. I never said boxofficemojo recalculated the complete OS total each week, just the totals for individual markets.

 

For most movies, boxofficemojo simply uses the OS total the studio gives them, so - like I said - the OS total is not affected by this wonky use of the ER, but the per market totals are. Wolf Warrior 2 was an exception where the OS total was affected though since the Chinese distributor didn't report official OS totals, and boxofficemojo had to piece it together themselves(I'll explain why they got the number the have in the spoiler tag at the bottom, since it's beside the point).

 

The only thing I was pointing out was that boxofficemojo's per market totals are off because those are recalculated every week using the latest ER, and this understandably caused you to use the wrong China total to calculate the OS-China gross in that post(BOM's China gross was too low because the ER got worse). That is all I pointed out, and yeah, doing that should only be helpful. Don't see a reason to get worked up about any of this.

 

And no, I wasn't wrong, nor would I care if was. Whenever I make a mistake I'll happily admit it, I really couldn't care less about "winning an argument". "Winning" will never be my goal in any discussion... the goal of a discussion is to clear something up. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Spoiler

For Wolf Warroir 2, the OS total reached a peak when ER led to the highest China total(Sept 8-10), and it never changed since then, even though it made millions more. So WW2 is an instance where the OS total is arguably off. If the ER got better again before it ended its run in China, that OS total could have been significantly higher...

 

Edited May 30, 2018 by Ephemeris

[titanic2187]

4 hours ago, boxofficefreak said:

 

"Part 1OS-China actuals" 

"Possible 3M increase from calculated estimate of 946.2Million. "

 

I cited "Part 1" so..... couldn't you deduce that there could be other iterations? I also mentioned Possible further implying that it could be up for change. 

 

 

 

Just b/c it seems like you're in the business of "pointing things out", would you happen to guess how multinational firms calculate overseas earnings on financial disclosures?

Regarding volatility of exchange rates there's an accounting method of constant currency that's used by firms to establish core earning reports. Constant currency calculated on a consistent manner then further reconciled with GAAP methods allows investors to fully interpret the data. 

 

 Feel free to look it up and educate yourself so you can nitpick others more eloquently in the future. 

 

What your'e saying about BOM is a farce because 

A) you're implying that the site is explicitly using a fluctuating ER calculation, which is not true. They have a varying exchange rate calculation that's calibrated based on past ER rates for a given period and also updates international OS #s on a recent ER period.

.B) They do not only calculate exchange rates on a weekly basis, it's a combination of both.

 

 

Exhibit1

 

 

 

 

 

This is the extra remark put up by BOM, may help in the evaluation.

* Territories Tracked is the number of territories with reported box office results and does not necessarily represent all countries a movie may have played in. As a result, individual coutnries breakdowns may not add up to the total Overseas Total gross.

[Thrylos 7]

3 hours ago, Ephemeris said:

I think it is a mistake. I checked Solo, and they do say it's as of May 28 for that... Since that's Disney too, and since the total is so much higher than the estimate(especially without the weekend being higher), it probably does include the OS Monday number.

But solo is a new release and new releases are updated daily in their first two weeks. The studios usually stop updating their os earnings on a daily basisafter two weeks and this happened with infinity war last week, when only the daily u.s number was being added to its worldwide gross. Why would it start being updated on a daily basis again so late in its run ?

[Fake]

There seems to be some confusion regarding whether the new gross figure 1286.9M is till Sunday or Monday.

 

What we know: The addition since last Sunday is 65.35M. China added 210/6.4 = 32.9M for Mon-Sun. Weekend figure is 32.2M out of which China did 114/6.4 = 17.8M.

 

Case I: The gross is till Sunday

 

Which means OS-C did 65.4-32.9 = 32.5M. Now weekend gross was 32.2-17.8 = 14.4M. So the weekdays would be 18M, which seems too high after a 32M weekend.

 

So either this was an exchange rate adjustment, or Disney is pushing it for 2B mark.

 

Case II: The gross is till Monday

 

Monday weekdays should have been close to 4M (nearly 2M each from CH and OS-C), which means weekdays last week would have been 14M, which, albeit a bit high, is acceptable.

 

Both these scenarios are possible right now. So we will need to wait for the next update to say anything for sure. However, BOM mentions the gross as of Sunday, and I have rarely seen BOM making a mistake in that aspect.