Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

What's your beef with Deadpool and Logan?

Not enough JLaw (or any JLaw at all), I guess.

[YM!]

Telling you guys now, the more bizzare or unique CBMs will break out hugely (Black Panther, Wonder Woman, Animated Spider-Man, New Mutants, Captain Marvel, Aquaman) as in $250M-$350M, the non huge sequels and new origin stories will do around $200M-$275M (Doctor Strange 2, Cyborg, Green Lantern Corps, Shazam, Ant Man 2), while the big event CBMs (like Infinity War, JL, Dead2ool, Suicide Squad 2, and Guardians Volume 2 and 3) will open to $145M-$200M, but have legs under a 2.5x multiple, with most around 2.3x. CBM team ups (like Homecoming and Rangarok, and potentially The Flash) will open to around $120M-$135M but have legs under 2.5x. There's also going to be handful of underperformers like Venom (if happening) and Dark Phoenix.

Edited May 14, 2017 by YourMother

[aabattery]

7 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Telling you guys now, the more bizzare or unique CBMs will break out hugely (Black Panther, Wonder Woman, Animated Spider-Man, New Mutants, Captain Marvel, Aquaman) as in $250M-$350M, the non huge sequels and new origin stories will do around $200M-$250M (Doctor Strange 2, Cyborg, Green Lantern Corps, Shazam, Ant Man 2), while the big event CBMs (like Infinity War, JL, Dead2ool, Suicide Squad 2, and Guardians Volume 3) will open to $145M-$200M, but have legs under a 2.5x multiple, with most around 2.3x. CBM team ups (like Homecoming and Rangarok, and potentially The Flash) will open to around $120M-$135M but have legs under 2.5x.

 

Shading Ragnarok.

 

Bad post.

Edited May 13, 2017 by aabattery

[Alli]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Telling you guys now, the more bizzare or unique CBMs will break out hugely (Black Panther, Wonder Woman, Animated Spider-Man, New Mutants, Captain Marvel, Aquaman) as in $250M-$350M, the non huge sequels and new origin stories will do around $200M-$250M (Doctor Strange 2, Cyborg, Green Lantern Corps, Shazam, Ant Man 2), while the big event CBMs (like Infinity War, JL, Dead2ool, Suicide Squad 2, and Guardians Volume 3) will open to $145M-$200M, but have legs under a 2.5x multiple, with most around 2.3x. CBM team ups (like Homecoming and Rangarok, and potentially The Flash) will open to around $120M-$135M but have legs under 2.5x.

sooooo many CBMs. when will the bubble burst?

[fabiopazzo2]

15 Marvel film.. what you expect? 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

 

No mention of Ragnarok.

 

Bad post.

Rangagod (by Taika "the God")is mentioned but I'll recap, is part of the team ups that perform big OW ($120M-$130M) but have legs around 2.3x-2.5x.

[The Futurist]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

sooooo many CBMs. when will the bubble burst?

 

When Movies like  Moonlight, Hotel Budapest, 12 years a Slave, Her and Manchester by the Sea will be able to have 150m OW domestic and be 1B WW grossers.

 

 

 

 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

sooooo many CBMs. when will the bubble burst?

The bubble won't burst, but after Infinity War 2, CBMs won't do over $400M for a while. Let alone OWs over $165M.

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Shading Ragnarok.

 

Bad post.

It'll cross $300M but remember it has a lot of competition in November, like Homecoming in July.

[TLK]

It looks like GOTG2 will be less profitable than GOTG but should make more than enough money to guarantee a sequel. There are 9 Superhero movies supposed to be released next year and I wonder what the returns will be like. Fox has three movies and Deadpool 2 looks like the only sure shot. The other two can easily disappoint. Marvel has 3. Avengers will be a hit. Black Panther can go either way. Ant-Man 1 made $520 million Worldwide so nothing is guaranteed if the budget is much higher than the first one. Then  there is DC. 2018 could be the year where Super Hero movies start behaving like other big budget movies.

[Krissykins]

Deadpool 2 will drop from Deadpool. 

 

It'll perform like a comedy sequel.

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

When Movies like  Moonlight, Hotel Budapest, 12 years a Slave, Her and Manchester by the Sea will be able to have 150m OW domestic and be 1B WW grossers.

 

 

 

 

Those will obviously never make that much, but something else will. i wonder what it will be....what will replace CBMs? people will get tired of them and a new fad will appear.

[aabattery]

Just now, YourMother said:

It'll cross $300M but remember it has a lot of competition in November, like Homecoming in July.

 

Eh. It'll be hurt but November stuff generally has pretty good legs. The average multiplier of all the highest grossing ones is like 2.7, and that's including some really front loaded ones (Twilight etc). I think 2.6 is pretty doable, if reception is good which it will be because it's the best CBM of the year.

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Next summer's schedule puts this one's to shame in terms of sheer insanity.

I doubt Star Wars is staying in summer so that'll lighten it a bit

[Krissykins]

15 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Not enough JLaw (or any JLaw at all), I guess.

 

Talk about Deadpool being so February 2016.

 

JLaw is someone who is so March 2012. 

[The Futurist]

What is the difference between a hero and a superhero ?

Not much.

Will people get tired of heroes winning against bad guys anytime soon ?

 

 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

I doubt Star Wars is staying in summer so that'll lighten it a bit

Pretty sure it is staying where it is. Disney's holiday slate is already stacked for next year (Wreck-It Ralph 2, Mary Poppins Returns, and they still have Mulan dated in early November but I'm guessing it moves back given how quiet that's been).

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Eh. It'll be hurt but November stuff generally has pretty good legs. The average multiplier of all the highest grossing ones is like 2.7, and that's including some really front loaded ones (Twilight etc). I think 2.6 is pretty doable, if reception is good which it will be because it's the best CBM of the year.

True. But remember JL comes on its third weekend (and to a lesser extent deals with a potential breakout in Sony Animation's The Star and Daddy's Home 2). However Disney may do double screenings with Coco.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Pretty sure it is staying where it is. Disney's holiday slate is already stacked for next year (Wreck-It Ralph 2, Mary Poppins Returns, and they still have Mulan dated in early November but I'm guessing it moves back given how quiet that's been).

Mulan will do over $300M domestic easily. However thinking Ralph 2 will be another TLBM/Dragon 2 here on the forums where every overpredicts it. Poppins I can see doing $150M but nothing much else.

[aabattery]

Just now, YourMother said:

True. But remember JL comes on its third weekend (and to a lesser extent deals with a potential breakout in Sony Animation's The Star and Daddy's Home 2). However Disney may do double screenings with Coco.

 

The Star isn't doing shit. SPA has a pretty trash track record. I think it'll be able to coincide along Daddy's Home 2 since they're going for pretty different audiences.

 

Justice League is obviously gonna cut it short a bit but I don't think it'll be as disastrous as some are predicting. Not the best comparison, but Strange and FB managed to coexist pretty nicely so I think a similar thing might happen with Thor/JL.