Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

The Star isn't doing shit. SPA has a pretty trash track record. I think it'll be able to coincide along Daddy's Home 2 since they're going for pretty different audiences.

 

Justice League is obviously gonna cut it short a bit but I don't think it'll be as disastrous as some are predicting. Not the best comparison, but Strange and FB managed to coexist pretty nicely so I think a similar thing might happen with Thor/JL.

The Star could break out for two reasons imo. 1.) Sony has surprised us with Hotel Transylvania 1 and 2 breaking out due to coinciding with Halloween even with mixed reviews. The Star is a movie about talking animals witnessing the birth of Jesus, and has the potential to be a huge Christmas hit.  2.) It's has certain voice talents that could draw in audiences like Oprah, Key (from Key and Peele), and Tyler Perry. 

 

I agree with you you on the JL statement but mainly because it'll rebound with Coco double screenings for Thanksgiving.

Edited May 14, 2017 by YourMother

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

The Star could break out for two reasons imo. 1.) Sony has surprised us with Hotel Transylvania 1 and 2 breaking out due to coinciding with Halloween even with mixed reviews. The Star is a movie about talking animals witnessing the birth of Jesus, and has the potential to be a huge Christmas hit.  2.) It's has certain voice talents that could draw in audiences like Oprah, Key (from Key and Peele), and Tyler Perry. 

 

I agree with you you on the JL statement but mainly because it'll rebound with Coco double screenings for Thanksgiving.

 

Not seeing it on The Star. It's about as different as you can get from Hotel Translyvania and it's too early in the year for it to really get in on that Christmas gravy train. I expect sub-100M for it.

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Not seeing it on The Star. It's about as different as you can get from Hotel Translyvania and it's too early in the year for it to really get in on that Christmas gravy train. I expect sub-100M for it.

To be fair but not the best comparison, Grinch (both 2000 and 2018) opened/opens the second week of November, the latter will overperform due to Illumination. Predicting $35M/$120M for The Star, but $150M+ wouldn't surprise me.

Edited May 14, 2017 by YourMother

[Napoleon]

It's pointless to make predictions for Deadpool 2 before seeing how it will look and how it will be marketed. It can look very interesting, or it can look more of the same. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 in my opinion was a wasted opportunity, it could have opened way higher with a more effective marketing (or a better movie, I can't really judge because I didn't see it).

[Plain Old Tele]

2 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Guardians of the Galaxy 2 in my opinion was a wasted opportunity, it could have opened way higher with a more effective marketing (or a better movie, I can't really judge because I didn't see it).

 

Huh, and to think you gave it an F in the RTM thread. 

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, Hades said:

I personally find the MCU over predictions more amusing. Ultron making 2 billion, Guardians 2 making a billion and Civil War doing Avengers numbers. The funny thing is people keep doing this every year. 

 

Aside from Ultron, those other franchises made a big jump WW, so ultimately MCU fans keep winning. 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

It's pointless to make predictions for Deadpool 2 before seeing how it will look and how it will be marketed. It can look very interesting, or it can look more of the same. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 in my opinion was a wasted opportunity, it could have opened way higher with a more effective marketing (or a better movie, I can't really judge because I didn't see it).

GV2 increased over 50% on OW, the second biggest increase for a MCU sequel. Dead2ool is in a much more crowded June dealing Han Solo, Bumblebee, Incredibles 2, and Jurassic World 2. It's probably going to decrease domestic wise. Henceforth thinking OW around GV2 but weaker legs.

[Daxtreme]

1 minute ago, Tele Came Back said:

 

Huh, and to think you gave it an F in the RTM thread. 

 

[YM!]

Should I see King Arthur on Tuesday night? @That One Valerian any thoughts?

[TwoMisfits]

24 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Not seeing it on The Star. It's about as different as you can get from Hotel Translyvania and it's too early in the year for it to really get in on that Christmas gravy train. I expect sub-100M for it.

 

I threw it on as my surprise #10 movie of the year...huge voice actors, Christmas theme, guaranteed huge long legs b/c no theater will drop this til after New Years b/c it will continue to draw in kids and families all through the season...I'm hoping it's actually good b/c then I'd feel like it was a guarantee, but for a totally original concept movie, I figured it was worth not putting yet another supers sequel on my top 10:)...

 

I'm hoping it's like a version of Hop meets the Passion of the Christ (the totally secular fun meets the totally religious meaning - 2 Easter movies that scored big embracing the holiday) - I'm hoping it's a family animated movie that's sweet and uplifting with a little serious thrown in that hits the holiday square and brings in a DOM BO between those 2 movies...

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

It's pointless to make predictions for Deadpool 2 before seeing how it will look and how it will be marketed. It can look very interesting, or it can look more of the same. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 in my opinion was a wasted opportunity, it could have opened way higher with a more effective marketing (or a better movie, I can't really judge because I didn't see it).

 

The original was a break out hit yet the sequel will outgross it DOM and WW.

 

Many people consider it a top 5 MCU film.

 

Yeah what a waste. 

[Napoleon]

7 minutes ago, Tele Came Back said:

 

Huh, and to think you gave it an F in the RTM thread. 

I didn't know other members could see that.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I threw it on as my surprise #10 movie of the year...huge voice actors, Christmas theme, guaranteed huge long legs b/c no theater will drop this til after New Years b/c it will continue to draw in kids and families all through the season...I'm hoping it's actually good b/c then I'd feel like it was a guarantee, but for a totally original concept movie, I figured it was worth not putting yet another supers sequel on my top 10:)...

 

I'm hoping it's like a version of Hop meets the Passion of the Christ (the totally secular fun meets the totally religious meaning - 2 Easter movies that scored big embracing the holiday) - I'm hoping it's a family animated movie that's sweet and uplifting with a little serious thrown in that hits the holiday square and brings in a DOM BO between those 2 movies...

Not to mention Sony will use this for double screenings for drive ins with Jumanji, which will be big. Thinking The Star if good could outgross HT2 ($169M), as SPA highest grossing movie domestic.

[Napoleon]

5 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

The original was a break out hit yet the sequel will outgross it DOM and WW.

 

Many people consider it a top 5 MCU film.

 

Yeah what a waste. 

Yeah, it's successful, but I think it had potential to make more. That's what I mean.

[Plain Old Tele]

4 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

I didn't know other members could see that.

 

You can see who graded what by clicking the little people icon next to how many votes for each grade. 

[Rman823]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

BTW I saw Snatched this afternoon (it was eh) and before the movie was a special introduction from Amy Schumer and Goldie Hawn thanking everyone for coming to see the movie in the theater as it was meant to be seen. The studios are really pushing back against piracy, aren't they.

I got it too. Seems to be a trend with some Fox releases. First one I remember is Apocalypse. 

[aabattery]

Do we have any actual stats/numbers that shows how much double screenings actually add to a films BO? I feel like their impact gets overstated here a lot.

[Jonwo]

50 minutes ago, YourMother said:

The Star could break out for two reasons imo. 1.) Sony has surprised us with Hotel Transylvania 1 and 2 breaking out due to coinciding with Halloween even with mixed reviews. The Star is a movie about talking animals witnessing the birth of Jesus, and has the potential to be a huge Christmas hit.  2.) It's has certain voice talents that could draw in audiences like Oprah, Key (from Key and Peele), and Tyler Perry. 

 

I agree with you you on the JL statement but mainly because it'll rebound with Coco double screenings for Thanksgiving.

 

The Star will be lucky to break $100m, HT1 and 2 were flukes with a much more appealing concept. Not every Christmas animated films has been successful and I doubt this will either. It's going to be hit by both Murder on the Orient Express and Daddy's Home 2, the latter will eat into its family audience and Coco will kill it stone dead.

Edited May 14, 2017 by Jonwo

[Barnack]

21 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

It's pointless to make predictions for Deadpool 2 before seeing how it will look and how it will be marketed. It can look very interesting, or it can look more of the same. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 in my opinion was a wasted opportunity, it could have opened way higher with a more effective marketing (or a better movie, I can't really judge because I didn't see it).

 

Isnt all prediction absolutely pointless ?

 

Deadpool is one of the most predictable movie in term of look and marketing, it is a sequel.

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

The Star will be lucky to break $100m, HT1 and 2 were flukes with a much more appealing concept. Not every Christmas animated films has been successful and I doubt this will either. It's going to be hit by both Murder on the Orient Express and Daddy's Home 2, the latter will eat into its family audience and Coco will kill it stone dead.

Tons of families movies can survive during the Holiday season. If it's good, I can see The Star surprises us all, especially if Emoji, Nut Job 2, Pony, and (god forbid) Ninjago underperform.