Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

[Jonwo]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Tons of families movies can survive during the Holiday season. If it's good, I can see The Star surprises us all, especially if Emoji, Nut Job 2, Pony, and (god forbid) Ninjago underperform.

 

$170m is a bit of a stretch though. Trolls did $44m on its OW and just did over $150m and that only had to compete with Moana and Sing. 

Edited May 14, 2017 by Jonwo

[The Panda]

14 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

I didn't know other members could see that.

 

Wow...

[YM!]

Just now, Jonwo said:

 

$150-170m is a bit of a stretch though. Even Trolls missed that and that did $44m on its OW and that only had to compete with Moana and Sing. 

Trolls did $153M it barely did over the $150M mark if that's what you mean.

[aabattery]

The Star will probably do Storks numbers. Maybe a bit more.

 

I really don't know why you have so much faith in it; SPA has released 12 films and only 4 of those have gotten above 100M. This one really doesn't feel like it's going to join that club. Or maybe I'm wrong. I just don't see anything particularly interesting about it.

Edited May 14, 2017 by aabattery

[YM!]

Just for some comparisons for The Star (as an Christmas themed family movie)

All of these released first weekend/second weekend of November:

Polar Express, which dealt with Incredibles, Spongebob, and National Treasure:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$185,618,322	59.9%
+ Foreign:	$124,140,582	40.1%
= Worldwide:	$309,758,904

Domestic Summary

Opening Weekend:	$23,323,463
(#2 rank, 3,650 theaters, $6,389 average)
% of Total Gross:	14.3%
> View All 17 Weekends

Widest Release:

3,650 theaters

Close Date:

March 10, 2005

In Release:

121 days / 17.3 weeks

 

 

Christmas Carol (2009) dealt with Planet 51:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$137,855,863	42.4%
+ Foreign:	$187,430,783	57.6%
= Worldwide:	$325,286,646

Domestic Summary

Opening Weekend:	$30,051,075
(#1 rank, 3,683 theaters, $8,159 average)
% of Total Gross:	21.8%
> View All 13 Weekends

Widest Release:

3,683 theaters

Close Date:

February 4, 2010

In Release:

91 days / 13 weeks.

Elf which dealt with Brother Bear, Looney Tunes, Cat in The Hat, The Haunted Mansion, and to a lesser extent Lord of The Rings:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$173,398,518	78.7%
+ Foreign:	$47,044,933	21.3%
= Worldwide:	$220,443,451

Domestic Summary

Opening Weekend:	$31,113,501
(#2 rank, 3,337 theaters, $9,323 average)
% of Total Gross:	17.9%
> View All 17 Weekends

Widest Release:

3,381 theaters

Close Date:

March 4, 2004

In Release:

119 days / 17 weeks

  

Santa 2 dealt with Harry Potter 2 and Treasure Planet:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$139,236,327	80.6%
+ Foreign:	$33,618,738	19.4%
= Worldwide:	$172,855,065

Domestic Summary

Opening Weekend:	$29,008,696
(#1 rank, 3,350 theaters, $8,659 average)
% of Total Gross:	20.8%
> View All 14 Weekends

Widest Release:

3,352 theaters

Close Date:

February 6, 2003

In Release:

98 days / 14 weekends

Edited May 14, 2017 by YourMother

[Jonwo]

Just now, YourMother said:

Trolls did $153M it barely did over the $150M mark if that's what you mean.

 

Just edited it just now. 

 

I could be wrong but I think to get $150-170m, it's going to need at least a $40m+ OW which no SPA apart from the two HT films have done and I don't think families will go out to see a Christmas film in November. Grinch is a classic so it's the exception but most Christmas films don't open huge in November.

[Jonwo]

5 minutes ago, aabattery said:

The Star will probably do Storks numbers. Maybe a bit more.

 

I really don't know why you have so much faith in it; SPA has released 12 films and only 4 of those have gotten above 100M. This one really doesn't feel like it's going to join that club. Or maybe I'm wrong. I just don't see anything particularly interesting about it.

 

Unintentional pun there!

 

 

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Just for some comparisons for The Star (as an Christmas themed family movie)

All of these released first weekend/second weekend of November:

Polar Express, which dealt with Incredibles, Spongebob, and National Treasure:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$185,618,322	59.9%
+ Foreign:	$124,140,582	40.1%
= Worldwide:	$309,758,904

Domestic Summary

Opening Weekend:	$23,323,463
(#2 rank, 3,650 theaters, $6,389 average)
% of Total Gross:	14.3%
> View All 17 Weekends

Widest Release:

3,650 theaters

Close Date:

March 10, 2005

In Release:

121 days / 17.3 weeks

 

 

Christmas Carol (2009) dealt with Planet 51:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$137,855,863	42.4%
+ Foreign:	$187,430,783	57.6%
= Worldwide:	$325,286,646

Domestic Summary

Opening Weekend:	$30,051,075
(#1 rank, 3,683 theaters, $8,159 average)
% of Total Gross:	21.8%
> View All 13 Weekends

Widest Release:

3,683 theaters

Close Date:

February 4, 2010

In Release:

91 days / 13 weeks.

Elf which dealt with Brother Bear, Looney Tunes, Cat in The Hat, The Haunted Mansion:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$173,398,518	78.7%
+ Foreign:	$47,044,933	21.3%
= Worldwide:	$220,443,451

Domestic Summary

Opening Weekend:	$31,113,501
(#2 rank, 3,337 theaters, $9,323 average)
% of Total Gross:	17.9%
> View All 17 Weekends

Widest Release:

3,381 theaters

Close Date:

March 4, 2004

In Release:

119 days / 17 weeks

  

Santa 2 dealt with Harry Potter 2 and Treasure Planet:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$139,236,327	80.6%
+ Foreign:	$33,618,738	19.4%
= Worldwide:	$172,855,065

Domestic Summary

Opening Weekend:	$29,008,696
(#1 rank, 3,350 theaters, $8,659 average)
% of Total Gross:	20.8%
> View All 14 Weekends

Widest Release:

3,352 theaters

Close Date:

February 6, 2003

In Release:

98 days / 14 weekends

 

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

Just edited it just now. 

 

I could be wrong but I think to get $150-170m, it's going to need at least a $40m+ OW which no SPA apart from the two HT films have done and I don't think families will go out to see a Christmas film in November. Grinch is a classic so it's the exception but most Christmas films don't open huge in November.

Again, if Sony makes The Star look fun, funny, and faithful it may surprise us. 

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

 

Again, if Sony makes The Star look fun, funny, and faithful it may surprise us. 

 

I wouldn't hold my breath. SPA's track record is mixed at best.

Edited May 14, 2017 by Jonwo

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

 

I wouldn't hold my breath. SPA's track record is mixed at best.

Again, it can have mixed reception on RT (40%-55%), but as with Dreamworks is kind of proving now, they just need to make the film appeal to the GA and families. 

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Again, it can have mixed reception on RT (40%-55%), but as with Dreamworks is kind of proving now, they just need to make the film appeal to the GA and families. 

 

Dreamworks ≠ Sony Pictures Animation.

 

 

[Jonwo]

Just now, YourMother said:

Again, it can have mixed reception on RT (40%-55%), but as with Dreamworks is kind of proving now, they just need to make the film appeal to the GA and families. 

 

SPA aren't DreamWorks though. The Boss Baby least had a good hook likewise Trolls but a talking animal film even with a Nativity theme doesn't scream must see in the eye of kids or parents. 

 

 

[YM!]

Just now, aabattery said:

 

Dreamworks ≠ Sony Pictures Animation.

 

 

This is also true. But I think Sony may surprise us for once, as previously stated this and Animated Spider-Man are their only films that have some potential to do over $150M domestic. As long as it looks appealing to the GA as with HT1 and HT2 did during the Halloween season, it could break out.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

SPA aren't DreamWorks though. The Boss Baby least had a good hook likewise Trolls but a talking animal film even with a Nativity theme doesn't scream must see in the eye of kids or parents. 

 

 

I remember a time when everyone thought Home, Trolls, and Baby would flop due to bad marketing. Again, The Star just needs to look appealing.

[aabattery]

Just now, YourMother said:

This is also true. But I think Sony may surprise us for once, as previously stated this and Animated Spider-Man are their only films that have some potential to do over $150M domestic. As long as it looks appealing to the GA as with HT1 and HT2 did during the Halloween season, it could break out.

 

Agree to disagree then. The Star seems to have a pretty niche appeal and quality wise I'm not expecting very much from it. I also don't see much coming from Animated Spider-Man so I think we just have different expectations for SPA's stuff.

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I remember a time when everyone thought Home, Trolls, and Baby would flop due to bad marketing. Again, The Star just needs to look appealing.

 

7 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Dreamworks ≠ Sony Pictures Animation.

 

 

 

I don't have anything against Sony Animation, but they really haven't done much to inspire hope in them. Plus Sony hasn't been as good at distributing as Fox have been.

Edited May 14, 2017 by aabattery

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Agree to disagree then. The Star seems to have a pretty niche appeal and quality wise I'm not expecting very much from it. I also don't see much coming from Animated Spider-Man so I think we just have different expectations for SPA's stuff.

To be honest I do not see much box office potential for SPA outside those 2 films, for the most part I tend to be an optimist for animated films.

Edited May 14, 2017 by YourMother

[Jonwo]

Just now, YourMother said:

To be honest I do see much potential for SPA outside those 2 films, for the most part I tend to be an optimist for animated films!

 

TBH I think SPA will be gone if things don't look up. 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

 

TBH I think SPA will be gone if things don't look up. 

Box office wise if Emoji, The Star, and Rabbit flop, they may be finished for a while.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

To be honest I don't see much box office potential for SPA outside those 2 films, for the most part I tend to be an optimist for animated films.

Fixed it due to a typo.

Edited May 14, 2017 by YourMother