The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

You don't think PR will get $25m opening?

It's likelier to go sub-15M than over 20M at this point IMO

 

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Paul's gonna beat it. He's bringing justice for what T'Challa did to our boy Samson.

SLAMMMMMMMMIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNGGGG!!!!!

 

[Krissykins]

44 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

lmfao if WIT really manages to stay second this weekend  

There you go again with that emoji

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

There you go again with that emoji

 

[Brainbug]

17 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Okay, so check this shit out. Here's the most weekends at #1 consecutive:

 

1	Titanic	Par.	15	15	$600,788,188	12/19/97
2	Beverly Hills Cop	Par.	13	14	$234,760,478	12/05/84
3	Tootsie	Col.	13	14	$177,200,000	12/17/82
4	Home Alone	Fox	12	12	$285,761,243	11/16/90
5	Crocodile Dundee	Par.	9	9	$174,803,506	9/26/86
6	Good Morning, Vietnam	BV	9	9	$123,922,370	12/25/87
7	Back to the Future	Uni.	8	11	$210,609,762	7/03/85
8	Fatal Attraction	Par.	8	8	$156,645,693	9/18/87
9	Porky's	Fox	8	8	$105,492,483	3/19/82
10	Avatar	Fox	7	7	$749,766,139	12/18/09
11	Ghostbusters	Col.	7	10	$229,242,989	6/08/84
12	On Golden Pond	Uni.	7	7	$119,285,432	12/04/81
13	E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial	Uni.	6	16	$359,197,037	6/11/82
14	The Fugitive	WB	6	6	$183,875,760	8/06/93
15	Rocky IV	UA	6	6	$127,873,716	11/27/85
16	The Sixth Sense	BV	5	5	$293,506,292	8/06/99
17	Rain Man	MGM	5	6	$172,825,435	12/16/88
18	Look Who's Talking	TriS	5	5	$140,088,813	10/13/89
19	The Silence of the Lambs	Orion	5	5	$130,742,922	2/14/91
20	Wayne's World	Par.	5	5	$121,697,323	2/14/92
21	The Golden Child	Par.	5	5	$79,817,937	12/12/86
22	Mr. Mom	Fox	5	5	$64,783,827	7/22/83
23	The Secret of My Success	Uni.	5	5	$66,995,879	4/10/87
24	Stakeout	BV	5	5	$65,673,233

Notice that the ONLY film from the last ten years is Avatar, and there's only 2 films in the last 20 years on there (Avatar and 6th Sense)

 

Well BP is about to join that list of fives, and likely make it to the sixes also. This is just outrageous to think how phenomenal BP really is. Just when you think its performance amazes me, BAMMMM it goes and surprises yet again.

 

Its phenomenal to be sure, but lets not forget how weak this march it. Last year this month had Logan, Kong and BatB and Power Rangers each scoring 50M+ debuts after one another. Films like The Avengers and Jurassic World would have also been #1 for 4-7 weeks if there werent any other big and appealing movies to serve as their competition.

 

Edited March 14, 2018 by Brainbug

[Eric the Minion]

On 3/13/2018 at 1:23 PM, CoolEric258 said:

Tomb Raider	55	1560	2.82%
Ready Player One	63	1866	3.38%

 

Both are doing pretty whatever at the moment. Also my theater isn't getting Love, Simon. Considering it's a 10-minute drive away from a university with a huge LGBT community, either the managers have no idea what they're doing, or the movie's tracking is just that terrible. Probably the latter.

Tomb Raider	76	1560	4.87%
Ready Player One	78	1866	4.18%

 

Tomb Raider's looking hella weak. There hasn't been a single ticket sold for Sunday yet, and there's only one more day until previews.

[ZeeSoh]

18 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Its phenomenal to be sure, but lets not forget how weak this march it. Last year this month had Logan, Kong and BatB and Power Rangers each scoring 50M+ debuts after one another. Films like The Avengers and Jurassic World would have also been #1 for 4-7 weeks if there werent any other big and appealing movies to serve as their competition.

 

Jurassic World would have fallen to WiT in its 4th weekend and Avengers would have fallen to Tomb Raider in its 5th weekend (Avengers made about 20.4 million in its 5th weekend). 

 

But yes this March is comparatively weaker which definitely is helping BP with its incredible legs

[TalismanRing]

55 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

@TalismanRing do you have any Insidious 4 comps for Love, Simon? That was something that took ages to show up on Pulse and MT yet shocked everyone

Sorry, that was a post holiday malaise period where I didn't bother to track it

 

But a horror sequel wouldn't be a good comp anyway.

[KP1025]

6 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Jurassic World would have fallen to WiT in its 4th weekend and Avengers would have fallen to Tomb Raider in its 5th weekend (Avengers made about 20.4 million in its 5th weekend). 

 

But yes this March is comparatively weaker which definitely is helping BP with its incredible legs

Besides the release schedule, the time of year would also have to be taken into account. Jurassic World would have had bigger weekends if it wasn't burning demand in the summer boosted weekdays. It does seem releasing in the holidays/winter (weak competition and bigger weekends) gives the best chance of holding #1 consecutively.

[ZeeSoh]

9 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Besides the release schedule, the time of year would also have to be taken into account. Jurassic World would have had bigger weekends if it wasn't burning demand in the summer boosted weekdays. It does seem releasing in the holidays/winter (weak competition and bigger weekends) gives the best chance of holding #1 consecutively.

At the end of the day statistics like these are inconsequential. TFA despite having less weekend at #1 will have a higher multi than BP. 

 

And with such big and popular movies, it doesnt really matter when they open, they will be huge regardless

[Durden]

1. Black Panther - $29,000,000 (-29%)  Total $606,500,000
2. Tomb Raider - $21,500,000
3. A Wrinkle In Time - $17,100,000 (-48%)  Total $60,700,000
4. Love, Simon - $14,300,000
5. Game Night - $6,400,000 (-19%)  Total $55,100,000

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-tomb-raider-love-simon-can-imagine/

[Hiccup23]

2 hours ago, Hiccup23 said:

Mid-afternoon Pulse 15 minute watch

 

Love, Simon: 68 tickets 

Tomb Raider: 109 tickets

I Can Only Imagine: 134 tickets 

 

 

Love, Simon is staying consistent, which is fine but it will need to pick up.

 

Tomb Raider is starting to get momentum...could be to late though.

 

ICOI is dropping off. I am not surprised by this. 

Early evening Pulse 15 minute watch

 

Love, Simon: 81 tickets 

Tomb Raider: 99 tickets

I Can Only Imagine: 157 tickets 

 

 

Love, Simon is picking up  

 

Tomb Raider might be dropping or just settling into the flow of things...still a low number.

 

ICOI: Same comments as Tomb Raider.

 

I will give a final update around 10pm central time for today. I'll do tomorrow at 9am, 12pm, and 3pm CT. Unfortunately, I'll be out celebrating a friend's birthday in the evening so I won't be able to do the 15 minute evening and night watches. Friday morning though I'll give a 9am # and my theater's final preview attendance #'s. Then I am off to Chicago for St. Pats!!!!  

[Hiccup23]

Love, Simon	45	312	14.4%
Tomb Raider	58	848	6.8%
I Can Only Imagine	54	156	34.6%

 

 

24 hours out!

 

If Love, Simon keeps at current pass it will end with 60-70 tickets sold (~20 ticket increase from my previous forecast)

If Tomb Raider keeps at current pass it will end with 80-90 tickets sold (~30 ticket increase from my previous forecast)

If ICOI keeps at current pass it will end with 60-70 tickets sold (~20 ticket drop from my previous forecast) 

 

Edited March 14, 2018 by Hiccup23

[YLF]

10 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Welcome

 

There are two sites that show tickets sold.

 

Movietickets.com gives a rolling 24 hour % of tickets sold for the top 5 films

 

Fandango ranks the top 5 but not by %.  But it does show a 15-20 minute delay of tickets sales  (including the theater they're being sold)

https://www.fandango.com/dataviz/index.html#

 

One can also check seating charts at MT.com and Fandango to see sellouts or how many or what % of seats have been sold.

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/  gives tracking and projection updates as well as predictions for the upcoming w/e.  They also give Twitter and Facebook numbers.

 

https://boxofficemjo.com also gives weekly predictions

 

HSX and their forum are another resource for projections

https://www.hsx.com/

https://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3

 

IMDB.com also shows the rank of films in terms of page hits

 

Variety semi regularly has Comscore data on social media from twitter to Youtube. 

 

Youtube trailers with views, likes & comments are another piece of info - though most useful when comparing films in similar genres and audience base

 

Thank you for taking the time our to write this! When people list the "pulse" what data are they referring to?

[YLF]

9 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Also to add to what TalismanRing mentioned above. Many users report screen counts updates for their local cinema. Other users tally and report seats available and seats sold for their local cinema or all cinemas in their town or city (kudos to them for their hard work). 

Cool. I def will help out with that once im done with finals next week. When people on this sub refer to "pulse" what is that? and how do you find out what that is?

[Premium George]

8 minutes ago, YLF said:

Thank you for taking the time our to write this! When people list the "pulse" what data are they referring to?

Pulse is fandango.

https://www.fandango.com/dataviz/index.html#

[ZeeSoh]

On 5/16/2017 at 11:24 PM, grim22 said:

Talk about the presales, tracking, Fandango Pulse and MT Top Sellers in this thread.

 

Resources:

 

http://www.movietickets.com - for the top 5 sellers in the past 24 hours

http://www.fandango.com/dataviz/index.html - Fandango Pulse updates

 

14 minutes ago, YLF said:

Cool. I def will help out with that once im done with finals next week. When people on this sub refer to "pulse" what is that? and how do you find out what that is?

Pulse is Fandango ticket sales updates. Shows how many tickets are being sold of movies as well as shows the top 5 highest seller at the moment. 

 

MT is movietickets which doesnt show each ticket being sold but presents that data as percentages. It shows the 5 highest ticket seller of the last 24 hours. 

 

Links to both are in the post I quoted above

Edited March 15, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[ZeeSoh]

16 minutes ago, YLF said:

Cool. I def will help out with that once im done with finals next week. When people on this sub refer to "pulse" what is that? and how do you find out what that is?

You can use these websites and their data to see trends, compare to past movies and extrapolate that. For example Tomb Raider has still not shown up on MovieTickets which is not a very good sign, especially if it wants to open to mid 20’s. 

[Hiccup23]

LOVE, SIMON IS #4 ON PULSE AND HAS SURPASSED TOMB RAIDER!!!!!!!

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

End of night MT.com - ICOI still very strong, no other openers yet (which is bad for Tomb Raider, but not as bad for Love Simon, since teen movies tend to have lesser presales on this site)...

22.3% Black Panther

19.4% Wrinkle in Time, A

11.9% I Can Only Imagine

5.4% Peter Rabbit

4.8% Game Night

[Hiccup23]

3 hours ago, Hiccup23 said:

Early evening Pulse 15 minute watch

 

Love, Simon: 81 tickets 

Tomb Raider: 99 tickets

I Can Only Imagine: 157 tickets 

 

Night Pulse 15 minute watch

 

Love, Simon: 172 tickets 

Tomb Raider: 169 tickets

I Can Only Imagine: 211 tickets 

 

Love, Simon is the most impressive jump of all. 

 

Tomb Raider is gain speed but behind Love, Simon on Pulse...which isn't good.

 

ICOI regained momentum and sits at #2 on Pulse......