The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[YM!]

On 7/1/2018 at 7:53 AM, YourMother the Edgelord said:

North Shore Cinema update 

 

Ant Man and The Wasp is running 48.5% behind Justice League ($47.9M) and 30% behind Homecoming ($82.3M). If we use Ultrascreen only for Justice League it is at $62.8M OW. Not going to lie, this isn’t looking the best right now, I should have a better idea Tuesday but I don’t like how far behind it is compared to Justice League and especially Homecoming as it was the most backloaded. My range is for $70M-$90M OW. Not sold on $100M unless sales pick up Tuesday.

 

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation is running 1000% ahead of Wrinkle ($350M OW), 150% ahead of Coco ($125M OW), 58% behind DM3 ($31.2M OW) and 33% behind The Star ($6.5M OW). These are not the best comparisons obviously but some of them are hilarious. The best one is probably DM3, which is a good start.

North Shore Cinema Update

 

Ant Man and The Wasp is running 30% behind Homecoming ($82.4M), 38% behind Ragnarok ($76.1M OW), 48% behind Fallen Kingdom ($78.22M OW), 47% behind IT ($64.5M OW), and 50% behind JL ($46.3M OW).

 

Well, here’s the thing this has less showtimes than all of them except IT but it seems showtimes are final since they added one showing, giving it four total also Fallen Kingdom is not at the same point in time, and AMATW and all the other comps are a day ahead. TBH I think this is probably in that $75M-$83M OW range given the comps, presales kind of died down here. I don’t see $90M anymore, unless hype really goes up.

[Nova]

7 hours ago, Finnick said:

SMH didn't show up until Wednesday (02 days before its release ) on  MT.  AMATW already show up on Monday. Taking on account SMH is more front-loaded than Ant-Man and the tracking between 70-$80M. I think Ant-Man is looking just fine and maybe doing more!!

According to the tracking thread, SMH showed up on July 3rd which is the Monday before it’s release so similar to Ant-Man. But you also have to take a look at the weekends they’re coming afterwards. SMH was coming after a weekend where the top 10 did $220.8M and

Ant-Man is coming off a weekend that did $166.8M for the top 10. 

 

SMH also was weaker in presales though than most MCU films from what I recall. It was at 45% of GOTG2 the Friday before its release according to Deep Wang’s update at the time. So SMH wasn’t as front loaded as most expected in that it had a last minute push the week of release in its sale. It’s preview to OW number would suggest it had front loading but when you factor where it was presales wise according to Deep Wang, its sales really came in the last week. I expect Ant-Man to be similar to SMH though in that it’s not going to be as presales driven as other MCU entries so the comps with SMH that other members are using on here I think are smart. I think it’s gonna have a last minute sales push as well so I’m thinking $75M-$90M for the 3-day. 

[WrathOfHan]

Tonight at my theater for The First Purge:

 

7:00: 16/78

9:30: 9/78

Total: 25/156

 

Very encouraging so far

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Tonight at my theater for The First Purge:

 

7:00: 16/78

9:30: 9/78

Total: 25/156

 

Very encouraging so far

Does your theatre have discount tuesdays? That could be contributing to strong #’s

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Does your theatre have discount tuesdays? That could be contributing to strong #’s

Yes, but idk if AMC applies it to new releases

[poweranimals]

Ant-Man doesn't seem to be gaining any momentum today on MT.com

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Ant-Man doesn't seem to be gaining any momentum today on MT.com

I would imagine between the US discount Tuesday and the Purge's previews / wednesday tickets its a bit harder to climb than normal.

[poweranimals]

I wonder if the holiday is hurting presales a bit. I imagine that family stuff and fireworks are probably the priorities for most people. 

[DAJK]

First Purge reviews seem to be on par with the last 2. Although considering how political the movies are, or seem, and the fact that it's likely a corny horror/action movie, you can't really expect better reviews than that. 

[dxmatrixdt]

Across 18 theaters and only counting these 13 movies, this is the % of showtimes each movie has relative to the others 13 during the Fourth of July holiday on Wednesday.  

around 1,000 to 1,500 showtimes running

Jurassic World - 23.5%

Incredibles 2 - 19.0%

The Purge 4 - 9.9%

Sicario 2 - 9.3%

Uncle Drew - 8.4%

Ocean's 8 - 7.1%

TAG - 6.4%

Deadpool 2 - 4.4%

Solo: Star Wars - 4.1%

Hereditary - 2.7%
Infinity War - 2.5%

Neighbor - 2.2%

Superfly - 1%

[Morieris]

I wish Neighbor opened wide tomorrow like Purge will. Though we will get it on Friday.

[Eric Prime]

15 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

The First Purge (3-Day)	0	1065
The First Purge (5-Day)	107	2042	5.24%
Ant-Man	343	3415	10.04%

 

Ant-Man comps (the following are final totals before previews, not at the same point in time):

37% of Thor: Ragnarok ($46.1M)

24% of Justice League ($22.9M)

96% of Coco ($48.8M)

8% of The Last Jedi ($18.7M)

171% of Jumanji ($62M)

7% of Black Panther ($14M)

159% of Ready Player One ($66.3M)

8% of Infinity War ($21.6M)

20% of Deadpool 2 ($25.5M)

32% of Solo ($26.8M)

13% of Incredibles 2 ($24.5M)

25% of Jurassic World ($37.2M)

 

Obviously, it's hard to compare since Ant-Man still has three full days to go. Thor and Jurassic World feel like the safest comparisons to make, both being walk-up driven franchise features with a family audience, and at least judging by  things right now, this should track to the Doctor Strange opening I've been predicting for months and months.

 

Purge only just added in showtimes for Thursday to Sunday about two or three hours ago, so all of its business is from Tuesday and Wednesday. It probably won't get a whole lot of business for the 3-Day weekend since the franchise is very frontloaded, but time will tell.

 

The First Purge (3-Day)	5	1065	0.47%
The First Purge (5-Day)	160	2042	7.84%
Ant-Man	397	3415	11.63%

 

Ant-Man comps:

43% of Thor: Ragnarok ($53.4M)

28% of Justice League ($26.5M)

111% of Coco ($56.5M)

10% of The Last Jedi ($21.6M)

198% of Jumanji ($71.8M)

8% of Black Panther ($16.2M)

184% of Ready Player One ($76.8M)

10% of Infinity War ($25M)

23% of Deadpool 2 ($29.6M)

37% of Solo ($31M)

15% of Incredibles 2 ($28.4M)

29% of Jurassic World ($43.1M)

 

I mean...yeah, it's still on track for Doctor Strange numbers. Me personally, I hope it goes below $84,420,489 for...petty fanboy reasons  (Just kidding Marvelites, I'm rooting for this movie, don't try and argue with me for 3 pages straight)

 

Purge comps:

 

I don't have time to do them before my shift today, but looking at a couple of them, using stuff like Happy Death Day and Insidious and other horror movies, they all point to absurdly high $40-60M 5-Days, while Breaking In and Superfly point to low sub-$20M results.

[Eric Prime]

Also, from Deadline:

https://deadline.com/2018/07/ant-man-and-the-wasp-the-first-purge-july-4th-box-office-1202421069/

Quote

Look for Disney-Marvel’s Ant-Man and the Wasp to overperform.

That’s our gut feeling at this point in time. While one particular tracking service at the high-end is showing $85M, it would not be a shocker if the Peyton Reed-directed follow-up to the 2015 title heads toward $100M. Really. Global start is estimated to be between $125M-$155M perhaps even more.

 

Also opening this weekend in U.S. and Canada is Universal-Blumhouse’s The First Purge which previews tonight at 7PM with a full opening tomorrow at roughly 3,000 theaters. Five-day out look for the prequel is between $25M-$36M. 

 

Meanwhile, industry sources see the offshore start for Ant-Man and the Wasp in the $50M-$70M range. That $50M looks conservative, even if the opening is missing two of Ant-Man’s Top 5 markets from 2015.

 

 

[narniadis]

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Also, from Deadline:

https://deadline.com/2018/07/ant-man-and-the-wasp-the-first-purge-july-4th-box-office-1202421069/

 

 

I mean, given the timely subject matter and the franchise history - a 45m 5 Day wouldn't surprise me.

5-days for the last 3:

P1 - 40.05

P2 - 36.7

P4 - 40.47

 

so 45m may be pushing it, but I doubt it goes under 35m

[WrathOfHan]

Purge is now third on Pulse

[TalismanRing]

EDIT:    Well this post is fucked up.  I had today's numbers under the Monday column even though I know its Tues.  

 

Fandango eye count since I don't have other comp numbers for a Monday  Tues afternoon. 

 

AM&TW is lagging seriously behind everything except JL and even then it's at about 80%.   Even if it stays at that rate though it could still hit $9-10m in previews 

 

AM&TW:  15.5 avg (1pm), 16.33 avg (3pm)

 

Tues #s

 

WW: 41avg (4pm)  (Reviews just came out)

Thor:R: 25 (10am)

JL: 19.2 (10am), 20.4 (11.30am), 22.2 (4:45)

 

Monday #s

 

WW:  15 avg (1pm)

SM:HC: 15 avg (11am), 20 avg (3pm)

Thor:R: 13.5 (12pm)

JL: 13.2 (11am), 19.8 (3pm)

BP: 65-70 (3pm)

AIW:  88.33 (1pm)

 

 

Edited July 3, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Nova]

9 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango eye count since I don't have other comp numbers for a Monday afternoon

 

AM&TW:  15.5 avg (1pm), 16.33 avg (3pm)

 

WW:  15 avg (1pm)

SM:HC: 15 avg (11am), 20 avg (3pm)

Thor:R: 13.5 (12pm)

JL: 13.2 (11am), 19.8 (3pm)

BP: 65-70 (3pm)

AIW:  88.33 (1pm)

 

For those in the general range of AM&TW - WW  (reviews also came out) & Thor:R  increased a lot on Tues while JL stagnated

 

Tues #s

 

WW: 41avg (4pm)

Thor:R: 25 (10am)

JL: 19.2 (10am), 20.4 (11.30am), 22.2 (4:45)

 

 

What did you get for AMTW for Tuesday afternoon? Or have you not done that yet? 

[WrathOfHan]

On 6/26/2018 at 2:41 PM, WrathOfHan said:

SuperFly is gone.

 

Sicario: Day of the Soldado: 5 (Average)

Uncle Drew: 5 (Average)

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 19 (Down 2; 15 2D/4 3D; XL x2, Average, and Smallest)

Incredibles 2: 14 (Down 3; Biggest x2 and Average)

Gotti: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

Ocean's 8: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

Tag: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

  Hide contents

 

XL: 300 (two screens are this size)

Biggest: 130 (two screens are this size)

Average: 100 (four screens are this size; one has five extra seats)

Smallest: 47 (four screens are this size)

 

 

Gotti and Tag are gone.

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: 18 (15 2D/3 3D; XL x2, Average, and Smallest x0.5)

The First Purge: 5 (Average)

Won't You Be My Neighbor?: 5 (Smallest)

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 11 (Down 8 and lost 3D; Biggest and Average x1.5)

Incredibles 2: 7 (Down 7; Biggest and Average x0.5)

Sicario: Day of the Soldado: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

Uncle Drew: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

Ocean's 8: 2 (Down 3; Smallest x0.5)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

Spoiler

 

XL: 300 (two screens are this size)

Biggest: 130 (two screens are this size)

Average: 100 (four screens are this size; one has five extra seats)

Smallest: 47 (four screens are this size)

 

 

Edited July 3, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Quake]

so some say Antman is running behind Homecoming and Thor but deadline say the oposite. Anyone else confused about this 

[dxmatrixdt]

Purge still has not entered top 5 ticket sales on MT.  it is almost 2pm East Coast.  not looking good for 3m Tuesday night.  Purge 3 made 3.64m Thursday night and 14.5 million for the full opening day July 1, 2016.