The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TalismanRing]

Monday's totals should go up a bit when the next hour's number come in - they're always revising the previous hour's numbers. Edit: Updated

 

Shazam!	5083
Pet Sematary	2,116

 

Fandango Archive under the spoiler cut
 

Spoiler

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
Black Panther	35,429	36,302	39,934	65,453
Love Simon	863	1,256	2,907
A Wrinkle In Time	3,698	4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching (1k expansion)	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,980	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2k expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Girl In The Spider's Web	286	691	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	605	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts 2	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Creed II (Wed)	7,005	12,131	15,354	15,559
Ralph 2 (Wed)	6,712	12,083	19,183	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (1k exp)	387	922	89	2,268
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	3,475
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	6,235
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins Returns (Wed)	7,713	9,137	16,304	11,857
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063	25,201
Bumblebee	1,553	1,817	3,157	6,056
Second Act	353	611	1,146	1,915
Welcome To Marwen	299	403	658	928
Escape Room	111	368	1,543	7,297
A Dogs Way Home	259	623	1,560	3,257
On the Basis of Sex (2k expand)	537	1,043	2,275	3,511
The Upside	394	1,431	3,769	6,602
Replicas	21	133	352	1,002
Glass	3,106	3,978	6,478
The Kid Who Would be King	107	318	980
Serenity	6	128	1,074
Miss Bala	350	420	1,041
Lego Movie 2	2,552	4,130	8,601	13,321
What Men Want	1,383	2,505	5,405	9,328
Cold Pursuit	181	827	2,155	4,862
The Prodigy	161	359	847	2,288
Alita (Thur)	4,259	6,072	11,483	15,500
Isn't It Romantic (Wed)	3,576	5.367	12,411	12,304
Happy Death Day 2U (Wed)	1,296	1,843	5,445	5,825
How To Train Your Dragon 2	3,724	6,674	12,935
Fighting With My Family (2.5k exp)	165	368	1,284
Run The Race			338
Madea Family Funeral	1,587	2,482	4,951
Greta	120	287	824
Captain Marvel	33,951	37,060	49,745	64,456
Captive State	60	172	402
Five Feet Apart	613	1,053	2,225
Wonder Park	607	988	1,749
US	10,742	13,597	27,634
Dumbo	3,069	4,624	9,193	15,842
Unplanned		754	1,397	2,071
The Beach Bum		99	232	592
Shazam!	5,083
Pet Sematary	2,116

 

 

 

Edited April 2, 2019 by TalismanRing

[TalismanRing]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday		B.O.
Black Panther	35,429	36,302	39,934	65,453		$25.2m/$202m
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000		$39m/ $257.698m
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212			$18.6m/$125.5m
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533			$14.1m/$84.42m
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266			$15.3m/ $148m
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108			$11.5m/ $75.8m
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569		$10m/$80.2m
Fantastic Beasts 2	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880		$9.1m/$62.16m
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063	25,201		($4.7m)+$9m/$67.87m
Captain Marvel	33,951	37,060	49,745	64,456		$20.7m/$153.43m
Shazam!	5083

 

Shazam! shows will start at 4pm

 

Fantastic Beasts & Venom showtimes began at 5pm

 

BP, AIW, DP2 & CM started at 7pm  (The HSX chart has Cap Marvel erroneously at 6pm when those were scattered fan event showings)

 

I think the others started at 7pm as well.  Anyone have any different times?

Edited April 2, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Monday's totals should go up a bit when the next hour's number come in - they're always revising the previous hour's numbers

 

Shazam!

4,996

 

1.63x Dumbo             (4.24m)

.147x Captain Marvel (3.04m)

.588x Aquaman          (5.29m)

 

Anywhere from 3 to 5.25m

 

...

Well THAT clears things up. 👍

Edited April 2, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday		B.O.
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108			$11.5m/ $75.8m

Since the first Ant-Man has been used as a comp by many, including myself:

 

4,996/6,613 = .75545x

.75545 x 11.5 = 8.688m

 

That might be an outlier, but if there's a roadmap for Shazam!, that's it.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday		B.O.
Black Panther	35,429	36,302	39,934	65,453		$25.2m/$202m
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000		$39m/ $267.698m
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212			$18.6m/$125.5m
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533			$14.1m/$84.42m
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266			$15.3m/ $148m
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108			$11.5m/ $75.8m
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569		$10m/$80.2m
Fantastic Beasts 2	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880		$9.1m/$62.16m
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063	25,201		($4.7m)+$9m/$67.87m
Captain Marvel	33,951	37,060	49,745	64,456		$20.7m/$153.43m
Shazam!	4,996

 

Shazam! shows will start at 4pm

 

Fantastic Beasts & Venom showtimes began at 5pm

 

BP, AIW, DP2 & CM started at 7pm  (The HSX chart has Cap Marvel erroneously at 6pm when those were scattered fan event showings)

 

I think the others started at 7pm as well.  Anyone have any different times?

Solo and JW2 both started at 7 (Solo had 6pm fan events and JW2 had scattered double features with JW1 starting at 3pm).  I didn't track Aquaman, but I don't believe that one started early.

Edited April 2, 2019 by Porthos

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Since the first Ant-Man has been used as a comp by many, including myself:

 

4,996/6,613 = .75545x

.75545 x 11.5 = 8.688m

 

That might be an outlier, but if there's a roadmap for Shazam!, that's it.

Except that AM&TW's Thur previews were inflated not only b/c it was the summer but it was in the middle of the 4th of July w/e - hence the much smaller than usual for a MCU film this size - 6.59x w/e internal (smaller than AIW's)

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

Except that AM&TW's Thur previews were inflated not only b/c it was the summer but it was in the middle of the 4th of July w/e - hence the much smaller than usual for a MCU film this size - 6.59x w/e internal (smaller than AIW's)

Didn't really factor that in at all, so yeah, totally fair point.  👍

 

Doing a quick scan, JW2 is the other sore thumb sticking out (8.2m), but as you said previously no reason at the moment to expect this to be as walkup friendly as JW2 was.

 

BP = 3.55

IW = 3.91

DP2 = 4.02

Solo = 5.14 (Memorial Day Weekend)

Venom = 3.67

FB2 = 5.08

 

If I did my math right.

 

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Didn't really factor that in at all, so yeah, totally fair point.  👍

 

Doing a quick scan, JW2 is the other sore thumb sticking out (8.2m), but as you said previously no reason at the moment to expect this to be as walkup friendly as JW2 was.

 

BP = 3.55

IW = 3.91

DP2 = 4.02

Solo = 5.14 (Memorial Day Weekend)

Venom = 3.67

FB2 = 5.08

 

If I did my math right.

 

4pm previews should inflate those comp %s

 

But then the internal multi goes down

 

Basically.... whatever... 

 

 

[Tom Swelling]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Didn't really factor that in at all, so yeah, totally fair point.  👍

 

Doing a quick scan, JW2 is the other sore thumb sticking out (8.2m), but as you said previously no reason at the moment to expect this to be as walkup friendly as JW2 was.

 

BP = 3.55

IW = 3.91

DP2 = 4.02

Solo = 5.14 (Memorial Day Weekend)

Venom = 3.67

FB2 = 5.08

 

If I did my math right.

 

What is this referring to? Sorry, I'm new here. Previews to opening day multiplier? 

[Matthew]

So we are looking at 

 

Shazam : 40M+ OW

 

Pet Sematary :30M+ OW

 

Am I right? 

[Mulder]

Honestly if Shazam hits Ant-Man numbers it'll be fine.

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, Tom Swelling said:

What is this referring to? Sorry, I'm new here. Previews to opening day multiplier? 

Thur Previews $ based on the % of tickets sold on Monday compared to other Monday #s

[reddevil19]

To me, it appears that Monday has solidified the idea that it should at least hit tracking and not open under 40. But beyond that, even with the work you guys put in - which is greatly appreciated, as always - in terms of comps... It's basically still a head scratcher. 

 

It's definitely going to be far more dependent on walk-ups than pretty much any superhero movie in recent memory, and that will be what might push it over 50, but it's probably the wrong thing to assume that just because it works as a walk-up, family-friendly movie, it will actually play like one... 

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, Matthew said:

So we are looking at 

 

Shazam : 40M+ OW

 

Pet Sematary :30M+ OW

 

Am I right? 

Too early for both, especially PS where comps are all over the map

 

Glass: $27.25m
US: $19.69m
The Nun: $54.37m
Hereditary: $43m
AQP: $48.79m

[reddevil19]

5 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Honestly if Shazam hits Ant-Man numbers it'll be fine.

Strictly from a financial point of view, of course. Even less than that will be fine. But, as you can see even on this board, there are still plenty of people ready to jump at the chance to disparage DC, so this movie doing less than Ant Man, even though it will be profitable, will generate negative, clickbait articles (and then articles written in defense, pointing out financial facts, will be derided as spin, because the negative narrative will be in place). The best thing though is that the movie is good and has critical backing, so WB continues to right the ship. 

[Eric Burnett]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

A Quiet Place

2,177

4,003

10,665

SW: Solo

13,688

15,855

28,533

Hereditary

659

1,178

3,181

Incredibles 2

20,872

23,430

39,337

Jurassic World 2

9,310

12,761

23,266

Antman & The Wasp

6,613

5,990

11,108

The Nun

2,082

5,938

13,806

28,881

BlackkKlansman

432

682

1,934

5,017

Predator

1,295

2,476

4,545

13,063

White Boy Rick

136

567

1,458

4,587

Venom

13,602

13,818

20,867

31,569

First Man

654

909

3,610

7,586

Fantastic Beasts

8,956

14,238

21,861

31,880

Widows

310

868

2,219

4,179

The Mule

791

1,779

3,882

6,235

Spider-Verse

3,715

5,208

9,858

19,972

Aquaman

8,502

9,671

15,063

Bumblebee

1,553

1,817

3,157

Upside

394

1,431

3,669

8,602

Glass

3,106

3,978

6,478

17,810

How to Train Your Dragon 3

3,724

6,674

12,935

21,313

Shazam	5,099
Pet Sematary	2,115
The Best of Enemies	251

Shazam Comps:

37% of Solo (31.4M)

24% of Incredibles 2 (44.6M)

55% of Jurassic World 2 (81.1M)

77% of Ant-Man 2 (58.4M)

37% of Venom (30.1M)

57% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (35.4M)

137% of Spider-Verse (48.5M)

60% of Aquaman (40.7M)

333% of Bumblebee (72M)

137% of Dragon 3 (75.3M)

 

It's a tad all over the place, but admittedly my comps are kinda all over the place. I'd say Incredibles/Ant-Man/Spider-Verse/Aquaman are the best comps here. Hopefully the Ant-Man comp comes into fruition.

 

Pet Sematary Comps:

97% of A Quiet Place (48.8M)

321% of Hereditary (43.6M)

101% of The Nun (54.7M)

163% of The Predator (40.2M)

68% of Glass (27.5M)

 

This one is pretty consistent, but that Glass comp does give me a bit of pause. Either way, even if the King brand might inflate things a bit, this is off to a great start

 

Best of Enemies Comps:

58% of BlacKkKlansman (6.3M)

185% of White Boy Rick (16.3M)

38% of First Man (6.1M)

81% of Widows (10M)

32% of The Mule (5.5M)

64% of The Upside (13M)

 

Well, if it looks like a single-digit opener, talks like a single-digit opener, and acts like a single-digit opener...

[Krissykins]

7 hours ago, JB33 said:

Great to hear!! Can't wait! Doing Shazam! on opening day Friday and Pet Sematary on Saturday.

I would swap them. 

 

Shazam is really good, but Pet Sematary is much better!

[Krissykins]

So, no useful comps for either film yet. 

 

Not looking great for Shazam though 

[Napoleon]

Ads didn't make it clear that Shazam was a fun, colorful and childish movie, which, you know, it's what audiences always demanded from DC according to the media. Once they watch it and realize it's a fun, colorful and childish movie, word of mouth will spread like fire.

[Matthew]

2 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Ads didn't make it clear that Shazam was a fun, colorful and childish movie, which, you know, it's what audiences always demanded from DC according to the media. Once they watch it and realize it's a fun, colorful and childish movie, word of mouth will spread like fire.

You are a sarcastic person.. I think.

Edited April 2, 2019 by Matthew