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grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

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3.3 million in screenings has to totally screw the Thursday numbers as well as predictions for the weekend. Many have told me how accurate presales are so before Thursday I'd like to see a range. I remember seeing 200+ predictions for CM and  several 175+ ones which were way behind. I assume for movies which are predictable this is true but not for all films. How accurate were they for BP?

 

Personally I have it at 55+ but that's only assuming presales somehow represent a huge portion of Thursday night previews. If it explodes past it via walk-ups I will go straight to 70+.

 

Edited by cdsacken
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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

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7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

3.3 million in screenings has to totally screw the Thursday numbers as well as predictions for the weekend. Many have told me how accurate presales are so before Thursday I'd like to see a range. I remember seeing 200+ predictions for CM and  several 175+ ones which were way behind. I assume for movies which are predictable this is true but not for all films. How accurate were they for BP?

 

Personally I have it at 55+ but that's only assuming presales somehow represent a huge portion of Thursday night previews. If it explodes past it via walk-ups I will go straight to 70+.

 

most people thought around 150-165 for cap marvel though and the presales here suggested that too

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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

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I just read through a dozen pages from March 6th through March 7th. Range was 120 from DC marvel haters to multiple 200+. 140-185 was the compressed range comps all over the damn place. A couple people who dug in deep did incredible with a few 145 to 150 predictions that just nailed it. I probably would have been way off as the comps didn't help and frankly it was crazy to see the level of demand right before.

 

Conversely, less demand for Shazam does not necessarily dictate the 25-35 million OW that the numbers would would show. It could be wrong in the exact opposite way that CM was.

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Litio Sleeper Hit

Litio

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Shazam feels like a non-event. I don't think it will be as upfront as these sequels. Also, Aquaman was in Justice League movie and even Captain Marvel got a teaser in Infinity War. Shazam didn't have something like that to increase the hype. With these presales, $55m+ should be a good target if I'm right.

 

As for Pet Sematary, Predator should be a good comparison, but Pet don't have 3D, neither IMAX and theaters count won't help it if it doesn't go up. I would say $34m.

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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

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1 minute ago, Litio said:

Shazam feels like a non-event. I don't think it will be as upfront as these sequels. Also, Aquaman was in Justice League movie and even Captain Marvel got a teaser in Infinity War. Shazam didn't have something like that to increase the hype. With these presales, $55m+ should be a good target if I'm right.

 

As for Pet Sematary, Predator should be a good comparison, but Pet don't have 3D, neither IMAX and theaters count won't help it if it doesn't go up. I would say $34m.

Presales indicate way worse than 55 but yes I agree 55+ is my target as well.

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Matthew Sleeper Hit

Matthew

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1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Will Shazam Tuesday presales take a really big hit from Endgame presales later today?

Yup, most likely. People will buy Imax and Dolby multiple tickets for Endgame now so Shazam will face some repercrussion. 

 

But always we will see. 

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Litio Sleeper Hit

Litio

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6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Presales indicate way worse than 55 but yes I agree 55+ is my target as well.

Some comparisons indicate it will open worse than 55m. Maybe we aren't choosing the right ones. :thinking:

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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

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2 minutes ago, Litio said:

Some comparisons indicate it will open worse than 55m. Maybe we aren't choosing the right ones. :thinking:

I mean most have that's the problem with presales and comps. So many variables to consider.

 

I'd like this film to open up to more than 50 imo of course but it's brand is way smaller than Aquaman as a part of Justice League or Wonder Woman. It's reviews are close to the level of Wonder Woman which had a good opening and even better legs.

 

All this to say I have no frickin idea what this thing opens to. Failing miserably and data is right I guess 35 is possible, exploding way out of the range of data would be 75. Lol 35 to 75 is like saying 120 to 200 for CM. 

 

Honestly Im picking 55 because it's middle of 35 to 75.....that's how not confident I am haha.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

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Thankfully they started selling early on Fandango, so I was able to get the info I need. 👍

 

...

 

Except a FUCKING GLITCH IS REPORTING TWO SHOWINGS AS SOLD OUT.

 

I WANT TO SLEEEEEEEEPPPP.   

 

giphy.gif

 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

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Okay, you know what?  I've seen this before.  I give this about a small chance it actually sold out by 5:03 my time (especially since earlier shows are still available).  I'm reasonably sure this thing has crashed on me and I'm not going to keep staying up to find out.

 

So I'm going to crowd source this.   If anyone can get me the AUDITORIUM NUMBER for the 7pm and 7:30pm showings at the following theater, I'd be REALLY REALLY grateful:

 

https://www.fandango.com/blue-oaks-century-theatres-and-xd-AAWFR/theater-page?mytheaters=true&date=2019-04-25

https://www.cinemark.com/northern-california/blue-oaks-century-theatres-and-xd?showDate=04/25/2019 (alt link directly from their website)

 

If I can get the auditorium number, I can figure out the seats.  Hopefully it'll pop back up by the time I wake up in a few hours.

 

If not... Well, I might be able to figure something out.  Hopefully won't come to that though. :)

 

I'm crashing now.  See ya'll in a few hours.:)

Edited by Porthos
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