The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

Okay so I have Fallen Kingdom numbers from Saturday before release (16th of June), Tuesday (19th of June) and Thursday of release. 

 

June 16th this is what Fallen Kingdom looked at my theater: 

 

7PM 106/142 

10:30PM 30/142 

Total: 136 

 

3D 

7PM 68/142 

10PM 12/142

total:80 

 

Total between 3D and 2D is 216 

*Im gonna hold off on posting 19th and Thursday of release right now as they’re pretty pointless imo I will post them on their respective days though 

 

Heres how Detective Pikachu is looking: 

2D

4PM () 22/142 

9:30PM  40/142 

Total 2D: 62 

 

3D 

6:45PM  38/142

Total 3D: 38 

 

Total Tickets: 100 

 

So it’s roughly at 46.5% of Fallen Kingdom. I want to add that this comp will obviously be better when this Saturday hits to see exactly how it stacks up. I also want to add that I’m not sure Fallen Kingdom is a good comp but I’m using it since @Porthos has used it as a data point and also the Shazam! and Dumbo comps are useless at my theater as Pikachu is running like 170% ahead of Shazam! And 240% ahead of Dumbo. I’ll still use them but like I don’t think theyre accurate comps tbh 

 

Also @Minnale101 to answer your question. Yes. Pikachu sold 11 tickets today for Thursday night. Didn’t check for the rest of the weekend and probably won’t do that tbh unless I see an uptick in sales either A) on Fandango or B). For Thursday night 

The reason why I used JW:FK was that it was 1) walk-up based (and how!), 2) still had strong steady sales leading up to release with only the barest of dips and 3) it had the lowest of bases to start from of all the films I'd tracked so far.

 

At the start, I figured it could have given a 'best case' scenario for Pika Pika, even if it started from a lower base.  Mostly wanted to see if it had similar growth patterns and so forth.

 

FB2 also had a small base to work from as well.  Didn't really want to include it since it over-performed so strongly in Sacto, but I also didn't want just one comp.  Not being a CBM or SW it also had a different pre-sale pattern, so that's what ultimately pushed me into including it.

 

Could have thrown in DP2 (ironic for it to match up against DP) as it had much of the same selling pattern locally, but it being an R-rated funnybook movie just made the comp a comp too far.

[Biggestgeekever]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Meanwhile they have only 2 films scheduled during the back half of summer (July/August): The Kitchen and Blinded by the Light.

I'm sure WB would have loved to put Godzilla in that mid July slot, but there's a little something called The Lion King there.  And Godzilla vs. Kong is scheduled for March, so much latter than than this summer is just not a good idea.

 

WB are great at late marketing pushes, and I'm expecting them to go all out on Godzilla once Detective Pikachu releases.

[stealthyfrog]

10 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Putting this here because I don't know where else to talk about it:

 

The November schedule is seriously a mess. It'll probably sort itself as we go along, as the August schedule has, but I'd like to know what's going to move, what's going to be delayed, what's maybe not even coming out on that date period etc.

 

For instance, WB has three wide releases in a row scheduled: Motherless Brooklyn (November 1), Doctor Sleep (November 8), and The Good Liar (November 15). Meanwhile, Paramount has 3 wide releases in 4 weeks: Terminator: Dark Fate (November 1), Sonic the Hedgehog (November 8 ) and Rhythm Section (November 22).

Paramount should move Sonic. It would only have two weeks to itself before Frozen 2 steals the vast majority of its target audience. November 8 is a horrible date. (Maybe Paramount knows exactly what they're doing.)

Spoiler

Better yet, Paramount should cancel the whole damn movie.

 

[Nova]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The reason why I used JW:FK was that it was 1) walk-up based (and how!), 2) still had strong steady sales leading up to release with only the barest of dips and 3) it had the lowest of bases to start from of all the films I'd tracked so far.

 

At the start, I figured it could have given a 'best case' scenario for Pika Pika, even if it started from a lower base.  Mostly wanted to see if it had similar growth patterns and so forth.

 

FB2 also had a small base to work from as well.  Didn't really want to include it since it over-performed so strongly in Sacto, but I also didn't want just one comp.  Not being a CBM or SW it also had a different pre-sale pattern, so that's what ultimately pushed me into including it.

 

Could have thrown in DP2 (ironic for it to match up against DP) as it had much of the same selling pattern locally, but it being an R-rated funnybook movie just made the comp a comp too far.

I actually think Fallen Kingdom will be a decent comp IF (and that's a big IF) Pikachu ends up being walk-up based. I say that because like you Fallen Kingdom never set my theater on fire in terms of sales. I was even bitching about it in the tracking thread when tickets went on sale and throughout its sale cycle. Sorry @Brainbug. Another thing is that *spoiler alert* Fallen Kingdom sold 18 tickets total between Saturday and Tuesday of release. Another *spoiler alert* But my Thursday morning of release note had it increased by 100 tickets between that Tuesday update and Thursday update. Will it be a good comp in the end? Who knows. But I might as well use the data that I have and see if it lines up in the end. 

 

*I also have *cough Solo cough* numbers and Deadpool 2 numbers too. Solo I have a couple days before release and Deadpool 2 I am pretty sure I have good data for it. I guess I could also see how it compares to those two as well. 

Edited May 1, 2019 by Nova

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Nova said:

*I also have *cough Solo cough* numbers and Deadpool 2 numbers too. Solo I have a couple days before release and Deadpool 2 I am pretty sure I have good data for it. I guess I could also see how it compares to those two as well. 

Solo: Terrible walk-ups (it's alright, I can stomach talking it now.   Honest!)

DP2: Great walk-ups (at least locally)

 

I just can't pull the trigger on pulling in a Solo comp, although it would be the poster child for a comp for relatively lackluster/anemic pre-sales beyond the initial burst, including the week of release.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Porthos

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

I'm sure WB would have loved to put Godzilla in that mid July slot, but there's a little something called The Lion King there.  And Godzilla vs. Kong is scheduled for March, so much latter than than this summer is just not a good idea.

 

WB are great at late marketing pushes, and I'm expecting them to go all out on Godzilla once Detective Pikachu releases.

Yeah nothing in July is understandable. There's room in the schedule but two blockbusters are scheduled 2 weeks apart (FFH on the 1st weekend, TLK on the 3rd weekend) so anything released alongside or between those is going to get walloped. 

 

Honestly, maybe there's just nothing you can do. Disney went all out with massive releases at the best times of the year. Studios probably recognized this, gave a big sigh, and decided to just let the chips fall as they may.

[MrPink]

29 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Yeah I think 4 PM is just way too early on school days for previews. I don't know why WB's doing them.

 

I also find it greatly annoying because a good amount of theaters in my area are adopting a 2 showings of 2D approach and one showing in 3D.

 

The 3D showing tends to be the one around 6:30 to 7:00pm, the one I'd most likely want to go to.

[Nova]

Just now, Porthos said:

Solo: Terrible walk-ups (it's alright, I can stomach talking it now.   Honest!)

DP2: Great walk-ups (at least locally)

 

I just can't pull the trigger on pulling in a Solo comp, although it would be the poster child for lackluster/anemic pre-sales beyond the initial burst, including the week of release.

Solo had pretty decent sales at my theater but yes never saw a pop after that. Deadpool 2 at my theater had some pretty solid sales initially then went crickets (Infinity War bitches) and then week of release and especially Thursday really blew up. But the one thing that DP2 had in its advantage is the number of showtimes. It sold 705 tickets for Thursday night (final number that I could track) but was playing on 9 screens. Solo also I believe had 9 showtimes. Thats another reason I liked Fallen Kingdom for my theater. It ended with just 5 showtimes for Thursday (and started on 4). But I'll see how the rest of the week goes to see if I should consider using Solo and DP as comps. 

[Biggestgeekever]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The reason why I used JW:FK was that it was 1) walk-up based (and how!), 2) still had strong steady sales leading up to release with only the barest of dips and 3) it had the lowest of bases to start from of all the films I'd tracked so far.

 

At the start, I figured it could have given a 'best case' scenario for Pika Pika, even if it started from a lower base.  Mostly wanted to see if it had similar growth patterns and so forth.

 

FB2 also had a small base to work from as well.  Didn't really want to include it since it over-performed so strongly in Sacto, but I also didn't want just one comp.  Not being a CBM or SW it also had a different pre-sale pattern, so that's what ultimately pushed me into including it.

 

Could have thrown in DP2 (ironic for it to match up against DP) as it had much of the same selling pattern locally, but it being an R-rated funnybook movie just made the comp a comp too far.

Another solid reason to use JW2 is that it was also in the wake of a monster hit (Incredibles 2), and that impacted presales to the point that quite a few people were expecting a sub-100M opening by Thursday.

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I also find it greatly annoying because a good amount of theaters in my area are adopting a 2 showings of 2D approach and one showing in 3D.

 

The 3D showing tends to be the one around 6:30 to 7:00pm, the one I'd most likely want to go to.

Same here. 4PM 2D, 3D is at 6:45PM and then the only other 2D is at 9:30PM 

[Eric Prime]

5 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Yeah nothing in July is understandable. There's room in the schedule but two blockbusters are scheduled 2 weeks apart (FFH on the 1st weekend, TLK on the 3rd weekend) so anything released alongside or between those is going to get walloped. 

 

Honestly, maybe there's just nothing you can do. Disney went all out with massive releases at the best times of the year. Studios probably recognized this, gave a big sigh, and decided to just let the chips fall as they may.

I still think one of the May movies could've been moved to June with no hassle and give good breathing room to both months. The two massive blockbusters of that month are animated family films, while stuff like Dark Phoenix and MIB are total no1currs. Wick or Godzilla could have moved on the same day as Toy Story and there would probably be little to no audience overlap between the two.

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I also find it greatly annoying because a good amount of theaters in my area are adopting a 2 showings of 2D approach and one showing in 3D.

 

The 3D showing tends to be the one around 6:30 to 7:00pm, the one I'd most likely want to go to.

 

11 minutes ago, Nova said:

Same here. 4PM 2D, 3D is at 6:45PM and then the only other 2D is at 9:30PM 

So glad Sacramento theaters look to be giving less of the 'prime' slots to 3D here. Right now of the 65 showings for Pikachu region wide, only 6 are 3D (9:40pm, 6:45pm, 6:45 pm, 10pm, 9:50pm, 9:30pm).

 

Does suck that two theaters locally are putting the 6:45's in between a 4pm and a 9:30pm 2D showings (Both of them are Regal theaters, naturally ), but the vast majority of the theaters locally aren't playing that game, thankfully.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Porthos

[YM!]

Imho considering how weak November is, I’m surprised WB didn’t move Pikachu or Godzilla early in November.

[Minnale101]

Jurassic world 2 had some reviews out June 5th 

 

17 days before release 

 

since movie released in Malaysia and Singapore June 7th 

 

i wonder if if that helped or hurt movie 

 

detective pikachu having reviews out 8 days before movie release May 2nd. Depending on if it’s positive could help the movie more in late legs of pre sales 

[YM!]

42 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Yeah I think 4 PM is just way too early on school days for previews. I don't know why WB's doing them.

I’ll say it and I’ll keep on saying: WB sucks with family films.

 

They need to get someone for their family film division who can market.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Imho considering how weak November is, I’m surprised WB didn’t move Pikachu or Godzilla early in November.

Neither films have been released and if presales continue the way they are for a certain film its certainly NOT too late to move 

[Mulder]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

Neither films have been released and if presales continue the way they are for a certain film its certainly NOT too late to move 

I think we all agree DP's pre-sales aren't lighting the wold on fire but to move it now ((It (as in DP) and Godzilla)) would be disastrous.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Mulder

[Cap]

8 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Imho considering how weak November is, I’m surprised WB didn’t move Pikachu or Godzilla early in November.

How is November weak?  Between Frozen 2 and Rian's Cinematic Masterpiece Knives Out, it's gonna a monster.  Plus Charlies Angels and Doctor Sleep.  I also would not count of Last Christmas AT ALL for being the sleeper hit/little engine that could for the Winter.  

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

How is November weak?  Between Frozen 2 and Rian's Cinematic Masterpiece Knives Out, it's gonna a monster.  Plus Charlies Angels and Doctor Sleep.  I also would not count of Last Christmas AT ALL for being the sleeper hit/little engine that could for the Winter.  

So you’re gonna ignore Sonic the thicccc Hedgehog now? I see how it is. 

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I think we all agree DP's pre-sales aren't lighting the wold on fire but to move it now ((It (as in DP) and Godzilla)) would be disastrous.

*Whispers* it cant get any worse than this