The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric the Minion]

As the unofficial "Pulse tracker" here on BOT, I'm just gonna mention this. I'm not gonna publish anything here until later tonight, but while things can definitely change, at least looking at Aladdin's sales at the moment, some of you guys are way too concerned over this. Sales, at least when using the comps I decided would fit, are pretty solid and seem to indicate a solid opening.

[Yandereprime101189]

Mulder, I've pretty much accepted the fact the film might not do well, but I also think it might at least do better than what this board thinks it will do. I don't really think people put much thought into reviews, unless they don't want to think for themselves.

 

I care way more for Lion King, which is likely going to be the Endgame of the Disney live action remakes. That monster is going to make money.

Edited May 13, 2019 by Yandereprime101189

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

As the unofficial "Pulse tracker" here on BOT, I'm just gonna mention this. I'm not gonna publish anything here until later tonight, but while things can definitely change, at least looking at Aladdin's sales at the moment, some of you guys are way too concerned over this. Sales, at least when using the comps I decided would fit, are pretty solid and seem to indicate a solid opening.

No offense and you're very good at Pulse tracking, but your Pikachu comps ended up not being exactly accurate. While I'm not saying this would repeat I think it's important to look at a lot of different methods to extrapolate what it'll end up being.

 

3 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Mulder, I've pretty much accepted the fact the film might not do well, but I also think it might at least do better than what this board thinks it will do. 

 

I care way more for Lion King, which is likely going to be the Endgame of the Disney live action remakes. That monster is going to make money.

TLK'll definitely make money. Perfect spot for it and it's obvious of Disney's four theatrical remakes this year that it's the one they're most invested in.

[Yandereprime101189]

I mean, yeah, I'm not blind, they're clearing pushing Lion King and Avengers more. 

 

The only thing I think could equal the soon to be popularity of Lion King is Little Mermaid. Out of all the remakes, these two are the ones they cannot afford to screw up. It's also the reason why Little Mermaid hasn't been announced yet, the amount of CGI in that film would be intense. Get James Wan dammit. 

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Aladdin [] is not a movie that screams preorders, it screams walk ups.

Which is why I gave it a 9x/10x internal multi off the mooted preview number and not a lower one.

[Mulder]

Just now, Yandereprime101189 said:

I mean, yeah, I'm not blind, they're clearing pushing Lion King and Avengers more. 

 

The only thing I think could equal the soon to be popularity of Lion King is Little Mermaid. Out of all the remakes, these two are the ones they cannot afford to screw up. It's also the reason why Little Mermaid hasn't been announced yet, the amount of CGI in that film would be intense. Get James Wan dammit. 

Well done Little Mermaid would be massive. A shame they've messed up Mulan already, that could've been big as well.

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Mulder said:

While I'm not saying this would repeat I think it's important to look at a lot of different methods to extrapolate what it'll end up being.

I know you're keep an eye on Aladdin and @Perfundle was/is (though they haven't posted in a few days).  

 

Who else is doing a regular track?  I know that @cax16 posted an update today.  Is @Nova providing any Aladdin tracking?

 

Trying to remember now all of the people providing local looks at it.

 

Speaking of which, @Mulder, I forget.  Did you keep any tracks for Pikachu locally?  Might be an interesting compare/contrast with Aladdin at a similar point in time.  Not perfect comp, I realize.  But a general ballpark thing might not be too bad.

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

I know you're keep an eye on Aladdin and @Perfundle was/is (though they haven't posted in a few days).  

 

 Who else is doing a regular track?  I know that @cax16 posted an update today.  Is @Nova providing any Aladdin tracking?

 

Trying to remember now all of the people providing local looks at it.

 

Speaking of which, @Mulder, I forget.  Did you keep any tracks for Pikachu locally?  Might be an interesting compare/contrast with Aladdin at a similar point in time.  Not perfect comp, I realize.  But a general ballpark thing might not be too bad.

Yep I did. The only issue with Pikachu is how long it's pre-sales went on for and by the time I dove into it it was about half-way through it's very long pre-sale cycle. I could always dig it up though.

[Mulder]

On 4/30/2019 at 2:02 PM, Mulder said:

Rn at my theater (Just Thursdays)-

 

Aladdin-41 (+15), 6 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Detective Pikachu-99, 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular)

John Wick-47, 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

Aladdin got a massive boost from last night surprisingly.

This was the furthest back I started tracking, this was Pikachu 10 days out (I posted this at 12 AM ET) vs Aladdin's 11 days out and Pikachu had a lot longer pre-sales. Still Pikachu was 27 tickets ahead of where Aladdin is rn. Sure maybe Pikachu's more fanboy/girl driven and/or overperformed at my theater but uh...not great.

 

EDIT: @Porthos because you were curious

Edited May 13, 2019 by Mulder

[cax16]

I can’t really speak on how much a movie will open to but on May 5th Pikachu had 64 tickets sold for both of its shows on preview night, and that’s 4 days before the movie opened. The fact that Aladdin has 42 sold already seems pretty decent to me, especially for the type of movie it is. I can understand that these Disney remakes will most probably be a bit more pre-sales heavy cause of the built in fan base but the number still seems fine to me. 

 

This is also coming from someone who doesn’t see many of the remakes so I have no skin in the game for playing favourites, to me Aladdin isn’t appealing in the slightest but the number still seems pretty good for this stage in the game, at least in terms of what I tracked recently.  This is all relative to what people’s expectations are for the movie of course. 

Edited May 13, 2019 by cax16

[cdsacken]

29 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Which is why I gave it a 9x/10x internal multi off the mooted preview number and not a lower one.

Why not at minimum DP multiplier so 10x or higher?

[Mulder]

Also I did a quick look around at the other theaters in my area with KOTM because the Friday sales were a bit concerning to me. Very glad to see most of them have recovered nicely and are now looking a lot healthier. 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Why not at minimum DP multiplier so 10x or higher?

9x if reviews are bad, 10x if mediocre is more or less what I was thinking.  Maybe 9x on a really bad RT overview.

 

Like, I took a quick glance and saw that BatB had a 10x and used that as a guideline.  Now it opened much higher, so something opening lower would have an easier time getting a larger multi.  Plus, you know Memorial Day Sunday.

 

But if my comps currently point to 7.5-8m (which I don't expect to last but that's what I was going with), that might point to an 82-95 three day (11x-12x), and that's far enough ahead of tracking to make me shift back down to 9x to 10x as a conservative guess.

 

The lower the preview, the 'easier' it is to get a higher multi though.  So I guess it kinda depends on what the preview number is when all is said and done. 

 

===

 

I also suck at forecasting internal multis though, so there is that.

[YM!]

54 minutes ago, Mulder said:

No offense and you're very good at Pulse tracking, but your Pikachu comps ended up not being exactly accurate. While I'm not saying this would repeat I think it's important to look at a lot of different methods to extrapolate what it'll end up being.

The Incredibles 2 and Spider Verse comparisons were very accurate imho. And to be fair Pikachu was harder to predict.

[Mulder]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

The Incredibles 2 and Spider Verse comparisons were very accurate imho. And to be fair Pikachu was harder to predict.

Yeah but it doesn't make it a good idea to ignore other bad signs just for Fandango and to also act like your comps are perfect after they weren't right this weekend.

[YM!]

1 hour ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

 

Or you know, the lack of reviews and reactions won't matter and people go see it anyway because they grew up with the original and want to see how it is live action/take their children to go see it.  Aladdin will at least do better than Dumbo. I'm sorta convinced it will have a big Memorial Day weekend. Maybe not no 150 million, but it won't be 40-60 million. It's likely going to be like Pirates 5.

 

It's at least not another Solo where they had to scramble to reshoot an almost entire second movie.

 

Aladdin (and Godzilla) is not a movie that screams preorders, it screams walk ups. They'll end up doing both fine, and then Toy Story 4 will come and then Spider-man and then Lion King and then we all calm down until Frozen 2 and Star Wars.

I’d argue Aladdin would be much more previews based than the average family film. Not as much as Pikachu or Incredibles 2 so to speak but I’d imagine if it appeals primarily to the female demographic, the previews would be more inflated.

 

Though I agree, $60M OW is the absolute worst for Aladdin. I still think it’ll be around $75M-$90M OW.

[YM!]

3 hours ago, Alli said:

Don't celebrate just yet. Godzilla is a fanboy movie. Of course it is going to do better in pre sales. Aladdin is a family movie, walk ups will be great. Just wait...

This is almost just as much denial as some of us Pikastans.

[YM!]

I’ll try to do Wick 3, Aladdin and Godzilla 2 Tuesday. Sorry I’ve haven’t been updating much, finals are a real stressor.

[Biggestgeekever]

2019-05-12 19:00:00	716	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-05-12 19:00:00	681	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
2019-05-12 19:00:00	214	The Hustle (2019)
2019-05-12 19:00:00	200	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

 

BABA YAGA

[Nova]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

I know you're keep an eye on Aladdin and @Perfundle was/is (though they haven't posted in a few days).  

 

Who else is doing a regular track?  I know that @cax16 posted an update today.  Is @Nova providing any Aladdin tracking?

 

Trying to remember now all of the people providing local looks at it.

 

Speaking of which, @Mulder, I forget.  Did you keep any tracks for Pikachu locally?  Might be an interesting compare/contrast with Aladdin at a similar point in time.  Not perfect comp, I realize.  But a general ballpark thing might not be too bad.

I have been keeping track with Aladdin. It's been more or less selling in the range of Pikachu at my theater. However, Pikachu did over perform at my theater compared to other comps I had it for it. So not really sure what to think of Aladdin at the moment.