The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, stealthyfrog said:

Is Brightburn under 1M OW club-worthy?

I doubt it goes that low but I'll be impressed by anything more than $10M over the 4-day.

[Biggestgeekever]

2019-05-11 22:00:00	1354	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-05-11 22:00:00	1258	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
2019-05-11 22:00:00	296	The Hustle (2019)
2019-05-11 22:00:00	189	Long Shot
2019-05-11 22:00:00	151	The Intruder (2019)
2019-05-11 22:00:00	126	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

 

[Mulder]

Can't see John Wick going under 50 million OW.

[Gavin Feng]

2 hours ago, Mulder said:

Official count later but KoTM is about four tickets away from matching Aladdin's total ticket sales in two days.

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This is pretty funny

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Quote

‘Aladdin’ Looks To Mine $70M-$90M In Memorial Day Gold – Early Box Office Tracking

https://deadline.com/2019/05/aladdin-box-office-opening-weekend-projection-will-smith-1202606259/

 

Quote

Box Office: 'Godzilla' Tracking for $50M Debut

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-godzilla-tracking-50m-debut-rocketman-blast-25m-1208750

 

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

↑

This is pretty funny

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Ended up being a bit further away ((6 vs 4)) but yeah it's hilarious. Either Aladdin's being overpredicted or Godzilla's being underpredicted or both. 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

Ended up being a bit further away ((6 vs 4)) but yeah it's hilarious. Either Aladdin's being overpredicted or Godzilla's being underpredicted or both. 

Though I do want to stress as well that maaaaybe Godzilla's just overperforming at my theater and Aladdin's doing the opposite. One theater isn't really enough to go off of fully. I did however do a check earlier of the other theaters in my area and Godzilla grew a decent amount in there as well.

[Nova]

Aladdin's on par with Pikachu at my theater (take that however you want ) and Godzilla hasn't really sold much (5 tickets for Thursday) which I'm kinda surprised about given its activity in Fandango on recent days BUT I would assume that Godzilla would act more like Jurassic World than anything else so I'll wait and see as release date gets closer how it does. 

 

The real movie making a killer at my theater is John Wick. 

Edited May 12, 2019 by Nova

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

Aladdin's on par with Pikachu at my theater (take that however you want ) and Godzilla hasn't really sold much (5 tickets for Thursday) which I'm kinda surprised about given its activity in Fandango on recent days BUT I would assume that Godzilla would act more like Jurassic World than anything else so I'll wait and see as release date gets closer how it does. 

 

The real movie making a killer at my theater is John Wick. 

How many showtimes did Godzilla get OoC and what kinds? I'm noticing the PLF theaters are getting the most Godzilla sales with 2D trailing behind IMAX or Dolby and then Real-D-3D being dead last. Also same here @ Wick. That's really posed to be huge for it's genre and break-out.

[Porthos]

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	70	9134	9997	8.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      46

 

The best comp I have so far is Detective Pikachu.  I also have less ideal comps with JW2 and FB2.  Use the later comps with caution.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.4879x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 12 days before release. 

PRE-SALES NOTE:  [Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24]

 

T-12:

Pika:    29  tickets sold  [0 sellouts/75 showings   |  8069/8648 seats left   |  6.71% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.5229x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 12 days before release.

.4764x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 12 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales and FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

T-12 days:

JW2                 45 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |   8583/10113 seats left | 15.13% sold]

Aladdin (JW)    35 tickets sold [0 sellouts/70 showings |   7853/8653 seats left   |   9.25% sold]

FB2                 51 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 11681/13377 seats left |  12.68% sold] 

Aladdin (FB)    37 tickets sold [0 sellouts/70 showings |   8283/9091 seats left    |  8.89% sold]  

*  Aladdin (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Aladdin (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

How many showtimes did Godzilla get OoC and what kinds? I'm noticing the PLF theaters are getting the most Godzilla sales with 2D trailing behind IMAX or Dolby and then Real-D-3D being dead last. Also same here @ Wick. That's really posed to be huge for it's genre and break-out.

My theater that I track only has 3D and 2D. It got 1 3D and 1 2D for Thursday which is the same as Aladdin and Wick. 2D is at 7PM and the 3D is at 10PM. I'm really really surprised that it didn't get the 3 showtimes that Pikachu got but I assume they probably figured its not a 4PM seller so they'd want the later shows to sell out and during release week, add shows accordingly. 

 

During the FSS frame, it has the same start showtimes as Pikachu (5) which is one more than Aladdin and John Wick has. But just like with Pikachu, showtimes will be added during release week. 

 

But essentially my theater is pretty much treating all the bigger May openers very similarly which makes sense given their 3 days have been tracking in a similar range.

[Porthos]

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	57	7620	7954	4.20%

 

Total Showings Added Today:             2

Total Seats Added Today:                410

Total Seats Sold Today:                     47

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be Fallen Kingdom.  I might add some more comps in the coming days, but I haven't yet decided which ones, if any.

 

.4090x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after two day of pre-sales.           

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while KotM had 20.  Also some theaters had KotM tickets on sale for a few days before they were officially announced to the public for sale. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 2 of Pre-sales:

JW2             180 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings   |   8760/9355 seats left   |   6.36% sold]

KotM (JW)      47 tickets sold [0 sellouts/57 showings   |   6579/6896 seats left   |   4.60% sold]

KotM (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

My theater that I track only has 3D and 2D. It got 1 3D and 1 2D for Thursday which is the same as Aladdin and Wick. 2D is at 7PM and the 3D is at 10PM. I'm really really surprised that it didn't get the 3 showtimes that Pikachu got but I assume they probably figured its not a 4PM seller so they'd want the later shows to sell out and during release week, add shows accordingly. 

 

During the FSS frame, it has the same start showtimes as Pikachu (5) which is one more than Aladdin and John Wick has. But just like with Pikachu, showtimes will be added during release week. 

 

But essentially my theater is pretty much treating all the bigger May openers very similarly which makes sense given their 3 days have been tracking in a similar range.

Ah I see makes sense. Thanks for the reply Nova!

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	57	7620	7954	4.20%

 

Total Showings Added Today:             2

Total Seats Added Today:                410

Total Seats Sold Today:                     47

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be Fallen Kingdom.  I might add some more comps in the coming days, but I haven't yet decided which ones, if any.

 

.4090x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after two day of pre-sales.           

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while KotM had 20.  Also some theaters had KotM tickets on sale for a few days before they were officially announced to the public for sale. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 2 of Pre-sales:

JW2             180 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings   |   8760/9355 seats left   |   6.36% sold]

KotM (JW)      47 tickets sold [0 sellouts/57 showings   |   6579/6896 seats left   |   4.60% sold]

KotM (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

Damn it's keeping pace with JW really well.

[Porthos]

On 5/10/2019 at 10:09 PM, Porthos said:

Reports are gonna be delayed by about 45minutes or so, as I got curious at the state of Wick 3 locally.

 

Ummm....

 

Wick 3 has matched Pika Pika on a pure ticket basis six days out in Sacramento despite being in 8 fewer theaters on a reserved seating basis (43 reserved seating vs 51):

 

Wick 3: 1028 tickets sold six days away

Pika:     1024 tickets sold six days away

Not sure if I'll keep doing this or not, but just do folks don't get the wrong idea:

 

Wick 3: 1083 tickets sold five days away (+55)

Pika:     1137 tickets sold five days away (+113)

 

====

 

The pattern of showtimes is hurting Wick 3, it looks like.  At least for this day.  There are lots and lots of sales in the 7pm hours. But it falls off a giant cliff for the 10pm showings.  Only Century Arden has any decent 10pm hour sales (32% of seats sold for the 10:15 showing).  Elsewhere nada.

 

Folks may want Wick, but not enough to see it at 10pm or later.  Not yet at least.   And not enough to break down the doors at the lesser trafficked theaters in town.

 

The good news for it, I suspect, is there should be a good amount of interest for showtimes in the 7pm to 9pm window.  And it isn't close to final set yet.  So should see a good boost once theaters in the region start setting their lineups for Thursday.

 

Don't get me wrong, it is selling very very well.  But it did fall behind Pika Pika a bit today.

 

Be interested to see how it continues to play out.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Not sure if I'll keep doing this or not, but just do folks don't get the wrong idea:

 

Wick 3: 1083 tickets sold five days away (+55)

Pika:     1137 tickets sold five days away (+113)

 

====

 

The pattern of showtimes is hurting Wick 3, it looks like.  At least for this day.  There are lots and lots of sales in the 7pm hours. But it falls off a giant cliff for the 10pm showings.  Only Century Arden has any decent 10pm hour sales (32% of seats sold for the 10:15 showing).  Elsewhere nada.

 

Folks may want Wick, but not enough to see it at 10pm or later.  Not yet at least.   And not enough to break down the doors at the lesser trafficked theaters in town.

 

The good news for it, I suspect, is there should be a good amount of interest for showtimes in the 7pm to 9pm window.  And it isn't close to final set yet.  So should see a good boost once theaters in the region start setting their lineups for Thursday.

 

Don't get me wrong, it is selling very very well.  But it did fall behind Pika Pika a bit today.

 

Be interested to see how it continues to play out.

Fair enough and I know we're sick of this phrase but wouldn't Wick 3 be somewhat walk-up based considering it's an R-Rated action movie?

Edited May 12, 2019 by Mulder

[Porthos]

Just now, Mulder said:

Fair enough and I know we're sick of this phrase but wouldn't Wick 3 be somewhat walk-up based considering it's an R-Rated action movie?

It's funny you mention that.  I was thinking earlier today that we might want to implement a moratorium on the phrase "walkup based" in this thread for ANY movie that hadn't clearly already established it yet in a franchise/genre.

 

===

 

I get the point.  But it's already sold so many tickets (and I base this not just on local numbers but according to @Deep Wang's post from a few days ago) that I'm not sure how walkup based it'll be.

 

Of course that it's even within spitting distance of Pika Pika with fewer reserved seating showings (and it was a few days ago on Deep Wang's charts [which is part of the reason I decided to start checking]) makes me think that'll do gangbusters.

 

It'll probably greatly depend on how many showings get added in the 7pm to 9:30 time frame and how many people feel like attending an R-rated film 9pm or later at the spur of the moment (after dinner or a night on the town - that sort of thing).  That's the sort of 'walkup' that I think will benefit this type of movie.  Folks showing up after 9pm and just wanting to relax to some gun-fu action. 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

It's funny you mention that.  I was thinking earlier today that we might want to implement a moratorium on the phrase "walkup based" in this thread for ANY movie that hadn't clearly already established it yet in a franchise/genre.

  

===

 

I get the point.  But it's already sold so many tickets (and I base this not just on local numbers but according to @Deep Wang's post from a few days ago) that I'm not sure how walkup based it'll be.

 

Of course that it's even within spitting distance of Pika Pika with fewer reserved seating showings (and it was a few days ago on Deep Wang's charts [which is part of the reason I decided to start checking]) makes me think that'll do gangbusters.

 

It'll probably greatly depend on how many showings get added in the 7pm to 9:30 time frame and how many people feel like attending an R-rated film 9pm or later at the spur of the moment (after dinner or a night on the town - that sort of thing).  That's the sort of 'walkup' that I think will benefit this type of movie.  Folks showing up after 9pm and just wanting to relax to some gun-fu action. 

Makes sense, thanks Porthos! How does KoTM's numbers look to you?

[Nova]

@Porthos it’s interesting that you bring up Wick selling very little at 10PM because that’s how it is at my theater. 95% of it sales for Thursday night at my theater are coming from the 7PM hour 

Edited May 12, 2019 by Nova

[Mulder]

The 10:00 IMAX showing at my theater for Wick is doing really good. But the 2D one's only got like 6 or 8 seats sold.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Makes sense, thanks Porthos! How does KoTM's numbers look to you?

Good enough.  Not great, not bad.  Pretty good.  It is handicapped by the missing theaters I've already talked too much about.  And it is still showing signs of growth at some of the PLFs in town (the TrueIMAX theater sold 25 tickets between its two showings for instance).

 

But it is slowing down.  Those three days of pre pre-sales did in fact take some of the edge off the initial demand locally so a pure Day 2 to Day 2 with JW is a little off. Also I am a little surprised that it hasn't sold much at Regal Delta Shores, even at its FauxIMAX showings.  It's early days though.

 

In fact, as I think about it, I kinda think the TrueIMAX theater is sucking up some of the business that might have gone to the other PLFs in town, as it is in fact doing very well there all things considered.  So as that starts to fill out in the middle, I'd expect folks to go to the other PLFs in town instead.  Great seat at a different PLF instead of a mediocre seat at the TrueIMAX theater in town, if you see what I am saying.

 

All in all, about where I expected it to be, I think.  I'll let you know when/if I start seeing signs of a breakout.

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Good enough.  Not great, not bad.  Pretty good.  It is handicapped by the missing theaters I've already talked too much about.  And it is still showing signs of growth at some of the PLFs in town (the TrueIMAX theater sold 25 tickets between its two showings for instance).

 

But it is slowing down.  Those three days of pre pre-sales did in fact take some of the edge off the initial demand locally so a pure Day 2 to Day 2 with JW is a little off. Also I am a little surprised that it hasn't sold much at Regal Delta Shores, even at its FauxIMAX showings.  It's early days though.

 

In fact, as I think about it, I kinda think the TrueIMAX theater is sucking up some of the business that might have gone to the other PLFs in town, as it is in fact doing very well there all things considered.  So as that starts to fill out in the middle, I'd expect folks to go to the other PLFs in town instead.  Great seat at a different PLF instead of a mediocre seat at the TrueIMAX theater in town, if you see what I am saying.

 

All in all, about where I expected it to be, I think.  I'll let you know when/if I start seeing signs of a breakout.

Out of likes but thanks Porthos! That fits with what me and captainwondyful discussed last night about the true IMAXes for KoTM getting a lot of business while other theaters got left out in the cold. As long as it passes 60 million OW I'm happy.