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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited) 
Dark Phoenix has almost hit Number One on the rolling Fandango 24 hr chart:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-05 15:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1       17.996% 12709   Aladdin (2019) [combined] 
2	17.298%	12216	Dark Phoenix [combined]
3	14.124%	9975	The Secret Life of Pets 2
4	11.809%	8340	Rocketman
5	11.523%	8138	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]

 

Should pass on the next hour update.

Edited by Porthos
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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted (edited)

Final preview update

 

Silvercity london june 6

 

Dark Phoenix 

IMAX fan event
615 80/323 ( +4(
10pm. 23/323 (+6)

 

Westmount 

VIP
615 27/63  (+4)
1000 13/63 (+3)


Secret life of pets 2

 

Silvercity london 
Recliner 3d
715 33/111(+3)
930 17/111 (+6)


Westmount

615 19/59(+7)
930 8/59(+2)

 

Dark Phoenix for previews at least has had a little more numbers up here than pets. It will be interesting going into weekend to see if the trend continues.

Edited by Tinalera
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MrFanaticGuy34 Blockbuster

MrFanaticGuy34

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

SLOP 2 has the second widest release in history with 4,561 theaters per BOM. Crazy how high theater counts are this year (for everything except Dark Phoenix, heh), I assume The Lion King will be breaking the record next month.

Well, Aladdin has the fifth widest release with 4,476 theaters. So i don’t see why TLK wouldn’t have a more wider release, especially since that will be THE film of July to dominate.

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MrFanaticGuy34 Blockbuster

MrFanaticGuy34

Posted
Posted (edited)

Also....is it just me....or have the big CGI-driven/animated summer-films so far (after Avengers: Endgame’s 94% on RT) ended up with between mixed to negative RT-critic reception (from 20-65%)?

 

First Pikachu, then Aladdin, then Godzilla...and now both Pets 2 & Dark Phoenix. Did those films not impress critics as much as Endgame?

Edited by MrFanaticGuy34
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Porthos said: 

Dark Phoenix has almost hit Number One on the rolling Fandango 24 hr chart:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-05 15:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1       17.996% 12709   Aladdin (2019) [combined] 
2	17.298%	12216	Dark Phoenix [combined]
3	14.124%	9975	The Secret Life of Pets 2
4	11.809%	8340	Rocketman
5	11.523%	8138	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]

 

Should pass on the next hour update.

And now official:

  

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-05 16:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	18.049%	12747	Dark Phoenix [combined]
2	17.674%	12482	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
3	14.710%	10389	The Secret Life of Pets 2
4	11.621%	8207	Rocketman
5	11.191%	7904	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
6	04.793%	3385	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
7	04.578%	3233	Ma (2019)
8	03.942%	2784	Avengers Endgame (2019)
9	02.553%	1803	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
10	01.861%	1314	Booksmart

SLOP2 should hit second on the next update, or soon thereafter.  

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Also....is it just me....or have the big CGI-driven/animated summer-films so far (after Avengers: Endgame’s 94% on RT) ended up with between mixed to negative RT-critic reception (from 20-65%)?

 

First Pikachu, then Aladdin, then Godzilla...and now both Pets 2 & Dark Phoenix. Did those films not impress critics as much as Endgame?

It's normal for big CGI-driven movies to get mixed reception. Endgame (and the MCU in general) is the outlier here.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted

LEGO2 did 16x the previews and APOC did 8x the previews (with inflated Mem Day Sunday)

 

With those multis for SLOP2 and DARKP respectively,

3.5-4m for SLOP2 gives 56-64 ow

4.5-5m for DARKP gives 36-40 ow.

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Biggestgeekever Box Office Gold

Biggestgeekever

Posted
Posted

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4518&p=.htm

 

  • The Secret Life of Pets 2 (4,561 theaters) - $51.0 M
  • Dark Phoenix - $39.0 M
  • Aladdin - $26.0 M
  • Godzilla: King of the Monsters (4,108 theaters) - $16.7 M
  • Rocketman (3,610 theaters) - $16.0 M
  • Ma (2,816 theaters) - $8.3 M
  • John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum (2,776 theaters) - $6.3 M
  • Avengers: Endgame - $5.5 M
  • Pokemon Detective Pikachu (2,161 theaters) - $3.7 M
  • Booksmart (1,134 theaters) - $1.4 M

 

Gotta agree with BOM this weekend on the openers, presales just look that sluggish for both.

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Cookson Box Office Gold

Cookson

Posted
Posted

Hoping Godzilla can do a bit more than that... at least 18m. Trying to push it to 120m domestically. Needs just 60m more for that... might be tough.

 

Can someone do a breakdown with a 60% drop this weekend then 55 the rest? 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted

Gonna guess 4.5-5 based on Pulse for DP's previews. Don't have the energy to do a full set of comps like usual but that seems to be the approximate range. For some reason the Saturday/Sunday ratios against Godzilla are way stronger than the Thursday/Friday, maybe this will have a stronger IM than we think.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Gonna guess 4.5-5 based on Pulse for DP's previews. Don't have the energy to do a full set of comps like usual but that seems to be the approximate range. For some reason the Saturday/Sunday ratios against Godzilla are way stronger than the Thursday/Friday, maybe this will have a stronger IM than we think.

APOC did 8x and ha infldated Sunday.

KOTM did 7.6x last weekend. 

DOFP did 11x 5 years back again with inflated Sunday that DARKP doesn't have.

 

7.5-8.0x for DARKP imo. 5m previews would give 37.5-40m with that.

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Biggestgeekever Box Office Gold

Biggestgeekever

Posted
Posted

Anyone else have some theater reports for SLOP 2? I'm looking around Seattle and it just... insanely dire. And the Fandango tracker has been below LEGO Movie 2 the last couple days and it doesn't appear it'll finish much higher than it today. I would think LEGO Movie 2 probably skewed older, but still these are very weak numbers compared to every other major animated release. 

 

SLOP 2 can't possibly open below $40M, right?

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, a2k said:

APOC did 8x and ha infldated Sunday.

KOTM did 7.6x last weekend. 

DOFP did 11x 5 years back again with inflated Sunday that DARKP doesn't have.

 

7.5-8.0x for DARKP imo. 5m previews would give 37.5-40m with that.

Idk, the Pulse sales seem to be suggesting a stronger multiplier than Godzilla, and by a significant margin. Maybe because this movie had such bad buzz some of the fanbase wasn't that excited to see it on Day 1, but will still see it throughout the weekend. 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Anyone else have some theater reports for SLOP 2? I'm looking around Seattle and it just... insanely dire. And the Fandango tracker has been below LEGO Movie 2 the last couple days and it doesn't appear it'll finish much higher than it today. I would think LEGO Movie 2 probably skewed older, but still these are very weak numbers compared to every other major animated release. 

 

SLOP 2 can't possibly open below $40M, right?

Lego 2 along with Dragon 3 were extremely Pulse-heavy compared to most animated movies. I wouldn't be too shocked if it did open 40 million or close to it, after all the previews don't look to beat Hotel Transylvania 3 by all that much, which did 44 million I believe. It's been outselling that movie but the late June/July 2018 comps for Pulse tend to overestimate by a significant amount.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Cookson said:

Hoping Godzilla can do a bit more than that... at least 18m. Trying to push it to 120m domestically. Needs just 60m more for that... might be tough.

 

Can someone do a breakdown with a 60% drop this weekend then 55 the rest? 

18 will give it ~81 cume. 39 away from 120. So needs to add >2.15x the 2nd weekend more to it's cume.

GZ14 added 1.7x it's 2nd weekend FSS (inflated due to Mem Day Sunday) to it's cume.

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Old Spice Sleeper Hit

Old Spice

Posted
Posted (edited)

Salt Lake City report for X-Men and SLOP, 4:15 local time.

 

Dark Phoenix

7:00 37/62

7:30 26/62

9:55 (3D) 12/62

10:25 5/62

Total 80/248 32.3%

79.2% of Godzilla = 37.8

70.2% of John Wick = 40.2 (JW tally was taken two hours earlier)

 

DP IMAX

Jordan Commons Fan Event 49/426

The District 38/530

Legacy Crossing Fan Event 32/616

Total 123/1572 7.8% 

28.5% of Godzilla = 13.6 😩

 

SLOP

99/408 24.3%

53.2% of Pika = 28.99

98% of Godzilla = 46.9

38.6% of Aladdin = 35.4

 

Yikes. The regular DP figures are bad enough, but man, those IMAX counts... just brutal. Of course it won't open in the teens, but the total disinterest by the base is alarming. Unless WOM surprises, I would peg this in the mid to high 30's, tops. As for SLOP, I still think walkups Sat and Sunday will push this past Godzilla into the high 40's-low 50's when all is said and done. Aladdin and Rocketman (which is getting insane WOM out here) look to rule the weekend among holdovers, as Godzilla has already lost most of its PLFs.

 

 

Edited by A Star is Orm
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's a tight market when Aladdin is already dropping almost 700 theaters in week 3...

 

Pika and Endgame are mimicking each other on drops...and the Memorial openers, "The Killer B's" actually didn't get quite as eviscerated as I thought (but their theater drops are still horrid)...

 

June 7
Updated Thursday afternoons
 

<< Prev. Week < Last Year View Index Next Year > Next Week >>
Rank LW Title Distributor Theater
Count 		Change % Change Est.
Screens 		Change Est.
Shows 		Change Week #
> NEW RELEASES
1 - The Secret Life of Pets 2 Universal 4,561 - - - - - - 1
4 - Dark Phoenix Fox 3,721 - - - - - - 1
14 - Bharat Viva Pictures Distribution 350 - - - - - - 1
35 - The Last Black Man in San Francisco A24 7 - - - - - - 1
38 - This One's for the Ladies Super 1 - - - - - - 1
> EXPANDING
6 7 Ma (2019) Universal 2,816 +8 +0.3% - - - - 2
15 31 All Is True Sony Classics 328 +247 +304.9% - - - - 5
17 17 Biggest Little Farm Neon 285 +10 +3.6% - - - - 5
18 43 The Tomorrow Man Bleecker Street 207 +189 +1,050.0% - - - - 3
22 22 Captain Marvel Buena Vista 175 +13 +8.0% - - - - 14
24 35 The Souvenir A24 145 +71 +95.9% - - - - 4
31 37 Penguins (Disneynature) Buena Vista 55 +10 +22.2% - - - - 8
34 52 The Fall of the American Empire Entertainment One 14 +5 +55.6% - - - - 17
> NO CHANGE
2 2 Godzilla: King of the Monsters Warner Bros. 4,108 - - - - - - 2
5 3 Rocketman Paramount 3,610 - - - - - - 2
> DECLINING
3 1 Aladdin (2019) Buena Vista 3,805 -671 -15.0% - - - - 3
7 4 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum Lionsgate/Summit 2,776 -828 -23.0% - - - - 4
8 5 Pokemon Detective Pikachu Warner Bros. 2,161 -986 -31.3% - - - - 5
9 6 Avengers: Endgame Buena Vista 2,121 -984 -31.7% - - - - 7
10 9 Booksmart United Artists Releasing 1,134 -1,384 -55.0% - - - - 3
11 8 Brightburn Sony / Screen Gems 1,013 -1,594 -61.1% - - - - 3
12 10 A Dog's Journey Universal 628 -1,046 -62.5% - - - - 4
13 11 The Hustle United Artists Releasing 416 -991 -70.4% - - - - 5
16 12 The Intruder (2019) Sony / Screen Gems 306 -501 -62.1% - - - - 6
19 15 Shazam! Warner Bros. (New Line) 205 -132 -39.2% - - - - 10
20 16 Uglydolls STX Entertainment 188 -108 -36.5% - - - - 6
21 14 Poms STX Entertainment 177 -197 -52.7% - - - - 5
23 13 Long Shot Lionsgate/Summit 147 -330 -69.2% - - - - 6
25 18 Breakthrough Fox 137 -114 -45.4% - - - - 8
26 21 The Curse of La Llorona Warner Bros. (New Line) 120 -47 -28.1% - - - - 8
27 19 Dumbo (2019) Buena Vista 112 -118 -51.3% - - - - 11
28 23 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Universal 106 -12 -10.2% - - - - 16
29 20 The White Crow Sony Classics 69 -143 -67.5% - - - - 7
30 26 Amazing Grace (2019) Neon 59 -41 -41.0% - - - - 27
32 28 Tolkien Fox Searchlight 42 -52 -55.3% - - - - 5
33 36 Missing Link United Artists Releasing 27 -23 -46.0% - - - - 9
36 39 Unplanned Pure Flix 5 -22 -81.5% - - - - 11
37 86 Last Year at Marienbad (2019 re-release) Janus Films 1 -1 -50.0% - - - - 4
Edited by TwoMisfits
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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted (edited)

The Secret Life Of Pets 2

North Shore Cinema

Mequon, WI

6/6/19

 

6:00 - 75/149

8:15 - 48/149

10:30 - 9/149

 

 

Dark Phoenix

North Shore Cinema

Mequon, WI

6/6/19

 

7:00 - 73/119

7:30 - 68/301 - UltraScreen 

10:00 - 41/119

10:30 - 19/301 - UltraScreen 

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Screen count for Dark Phoenix is pretty brutal out here in Sacramento for tonight.  Didn't even top 90 screens locally (89 screens across 21 theaters for the record).  Lowest I had tracked so far was Pika Pika at 112 showings for preview night.

 

Many of the heavy hitters only expanded by one or two showings. No idea how full they are, though I'll see in an hour or so.

 

So Dark P isn't just getting hit by theater crunch, but screen crunch as well, if Sacto is any indication.

Edited by Porthos
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