The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Men in Black	226	211	320	255	255	256	532
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days	5 days
Toy Story 4	980	707	929	746	706	617	973
	18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days	14 days	13 days	12 days
Annabelle 3		13	29	48	48	31	48
		22 days	21 days	20 days	19 days	18 days	17 days
Spider-Man FFH	582	544	692	577	493	344	509
	29 days	28 days	27 days	26 days	25 days	24 days	23 days

 

MIB

Day 11-5

41% of Dark Phoenix (13.5M)

28% of Shazam! (15M)

32% of Dragon 3 (17.8M)

43% of Dumbo (19.6M)

61% of Pets 2 (28.9M)

 

Day 16-5

48% of Dark Phoenix (15.9M)

35% of Shazam! (18.8M)

36% of Dragon 3 (20M)

48% of Dumbo (22M)

79% of Pets 2 (37.5M)

 

Is it foolish to say that I don't trust these comps and am optimistic about this movie's actual chances? Even with the lack of buzz or marketing,  I just feel like this can't open that low...can it?

 

Toy Story

Day 18-12

185% of Dumbo (85.2M)

301% of Lego 2 (101.8M)

194% of Dragon 3 (106.6M)

120% of Aladdin (109.8M 3-Day, 140.1M 4-Day)

60% of Incredibles 2 (110.5M)

278% of Shazam (148.8M)

 

Day 24-12

237% of Shazam! (126.7M)

290% of Dragon 3 (159.8M)

107% of Incredibles 2 (195.1M)

 

So as of right now, I'm not in the "over I2 OW" hype train just yet, let alone "over 200M OW". The movie has slowed down considerably this week. But of course, the dream's not completely dead. There's still a few more days to go, and even if it does break the record, I don't think there's as much of a rush to buy tickets days in advance compared to something like Incredibles, both due to demand, and slightly different audience demographics. And of course, this should still do very well either way, if @Porthos and his data is anything to go by (though more of a #NotARecord kind of well). This week and next week will probably be the big deciding factors here over whether any records would be shattered.

 

Annabelle

Day 22-17

17% of Us (11.8M)

 

This is one that I decided to just throw in for fun. Partly because it could be used in the future for stuff like It: Chapter Two or Conjuring 3, and also partly because I only have three other movies to look at at this time, so might as well exercise my brain a bit by adding one more movie. And of course, I don't think we need to take this too seriously at the moment, especially because I don't think there's been an official "tickets on sale" announcement yet.

 

Far From Home

Day 29-23

37% of Captain Marvel (57.3M)

 

Day 36-23

30% of Captain Marvel (46.3M)

 

So this seems bad, but somebody mentioned that marketing was not in full force like Captain Marvel was at the same point in time, largely due to MIB occupying all of Sony's attention. So I am optimistic things will turn around fairly quickly and there will be a ticket increase. Then again, 2019 seems to be following Mickey's Law, where anything that can go wrong for all non-Disney studios will go wrong, so maybe this applies to a Disney movie under Sony's clothing?

I think the main factor is that Captain Marvel had a Super Bowl spot that really boosted awareness for it. It shows in the days before and after how it got a big boost. FFH hasn't had anything comparable which will make the numbers seem unrealistically poor. Still, it was pacing below CM even before that point, so I think there's room for a little bit of concern. Panic, obviously not. But it's possible that this will be closer to a Homecoming-type event than CM.

[Cap]

8 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

Then again, 2019 seems to be following Mickey's Law, where anything that can go wrong for all non-Disney studios will go wrong, so maybe this applies to a Disney movie under Sony's clothing?

 

 

[Eric Prime]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think the main factor is that Captain Marvel had a Super Bowl spot that really boosted awareness for it. It shows in the days before and after how it got a big boost. FFH hasn't had anything comparable which will make the numbers seem unrealistically poor. Still, it was pacing below CM even before that point, so I think there's room for a little bit of concern. Panic, obviously not. But it's possible that this will be closer to a Homecoming-type event than CM.

Mickey's Law in full effect ladies and gentlemen.

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think the main factor is that Captain Marvel had a Super Bowl spot that really boosted awareness for it. It shows in the days before and after how it got a big boost. FFH hasn't had anything comparable which will make the numbers seem unrealistically poor. Still, it was pacing below CM even before that point, so I think there's room for a little bit of concern. Panic, obviously not. But it's possible that this will be closer to a Homecoming-type event than CM.

again is a six 6 day opening, and we havent had many six day openers so, plus the marketing hasnt really start yet, but i would say that the hype seems to be bigger than captain marvel, we will see, and also actually the first days were bigger than captain marvel

 

a 120 opening for far from home for fri-sun, actually would be very  very good, as it is a 6 day opening

Edited June 10, 2019 by john2000

[filmlover]

Disney really is protected by a magic spell.

[Menor the Destroyer]

32 minutes ago, john2000 said:

again is a six 6 day opening, and we havent had many six day openers so, plus the marketing hasnt really start yet, but i would say that the hype seems to be bigger than captain marvel, we will see, and also actually the first days were bigger than captain marvel

 

a 120 opening for far from home for fri-sun, actually would be very  very good, as it is a 6 day opening

I agree, I also had thought the hype was bigger than Captain Marvel, hence why I made an FFH over AoU club. But it definitely has had lower presales than I thought it would. akvalley's report page is now updated and has numbers for TS4 and other movies up to FFH's opening, but no FFH unfortunately. I would have been very interested to see the distribution of sales for it.

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

I agree, I also had thought the hype was bigger than Captain Marvel, hence why I made an FFH over AoU club. But it definitely has had lower presales than I thought it would. akvalley's report page is now updated and has numbers for TS4 and other movies up to FFH's opening, but no FFH unfortunately. I would have been very interested to see the distribution of sales for it.

to be honest many here dont track far from home, not bc the sales arent good, but bc its a six day opener, and there are no comps, and while i dont think that it will pass age of ultron dont count it out just yet, the hype is there, and while trailer and tv spot dont say many thing, far from home seems to be way bigger than captain marvel

Edited June 10, 2019 by john2000

[Menor the Destroyer]

So since this week is gonna be another depressing BO weekend I went and looked through the daily comps of TS4 vs I2 to see if there was any difference in distribution between the two at the same point. 

TS4 (11 days before previews) - Thurs: 3775, Fri: 3396, Sat: 2843, Sun: 1516

I2 (11 days before previews) - Thurs: 6972, Fri: 5885, Sat: 4842, Sun: 2639

So TS4 is pacing well behind I2 for every day, but it looks like the internal distribution of TS4 is only marginally less Thursday-heavy. So if it gets a 15 million Thursday like @Porthos predicts then that would probably imply a weekend of 150ish. However it is much farther behind I2 than I expected based on those comps, but that could be due to demographic differences in the audience as @CoolEric258 said

Edited June 10, 2019 by Menor

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

So since this week is gonna be another depressing BO weekend I went and looked through the daily comps of TS4 vs I2 to see if there was any difference in distribution between the two at the same point. 

TS4 (11 days before previews) - Thurs: 3775, Fri: 3396, Sat: 2843, Sun: 1516

I2 (11 days before previews) - Thurs: 6972, Fri: 5885, Sat: 4842, Sun: 2639

So TS4 is pacing well behind I2 for every day, but it looks like the internal distribution of TS4 is only marginally less Thursday-heavy. So if it gets a 15 million Thursday like @Porthos predicts then that would probably imply a weekend of 150ish. However it is much farther behind I2 than I expected based on those comps, but that could be due to demographic differences in the audience as @CoolEric258 said

plus incredibles 2 is  more of a superhero movie too, while toy story is completly family film

[keysersoze123]

Great catch @CoolEric258. SO at this point TS4 is well off I2's pace. That is to be expected. Question is where its gonna end up. If its more walk in friendly as it lacks frenzy of I2, it still should have solid OW. To me anything above TS3 OW is a win.

 

On Spidey it makes sense if its softened after initial surge due to endgame. If it does as well as last movie that is a huge win considering that had Iron Man. I dont think having Fury and Happy Hogan makes up for IM.

Edited June 10, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Great catch @CoolEric258. SO at this point TS4 is well off I2's pace. That is to be expected. Question is where its gonna end up. If its more walk in friendly as it lacks frenzy of I2, it still should have solid OW. To me anything above TS3 OW is a win.

 

On Spidey it makes sense if its softened after initial surge due to endgame. If it does as well as last movie that is a huge win considering that had Iron Man. I dont think having Fury and Happy Hogan makes up for IM.

I still think FFH is getting a late surge after MIB opens. The MCU has never been more popular than it is now, and Spidey has now been in 2 massive Avengers movies which should make up for no Iron Man. So I'd be surprised if it doesn't beat Homecoming, question is by how much.

[Eric Prime]

9 hours ago, UserHN said:

Would you say that TS4 will most likey open with $150M+ with this kind of presales?

I'd say around 60% chance of that happening, maybe even higher. I say this largely because of @Porthos than my own data. He's generally had good luck when it comes to predicting previews. His data indicates a preview # somewhere around 14-16 atm. I'm predicting somewhere around 10.5x as an IM, which would give about 147M-168M. So it's still very much possible to hit 150M+, but I don't see it reaching, say BatB.

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

So since this week is gonna be another depressing BO weekend I went and looked through the daily comps of TS4 vs I2 to see if there was any difference in distribution between the two at the same point. 

TS4 (11 days before previews) - Thurs: 3775, Fri: 3396, Sat: 2843, Sun: 1516

I2 (11 days before previews) - Thurs: 6972, Fri: 5885, Sat: 4842, Sun: 2639

So TS4 is pacing well behind I2 for every day, but it looks like the internal distribution of TS4 is only marginally less Thursday-heavy. So if it gets a 15 million Thursday like @Porthos predicts then that would probably imply a weekend of 150ish. However it is much farther behind I2 than I expected based on those comps, but that could be due to demographic differences in the audience as @CoolEric258 said

Speaking as somebody from the "Pixar generation", I can tell you people around my age were dying to see an Incredibles 2, and were beyond ecstatic to know it was coming out. That older audience and that frenzy and demand isn't really as strong as it is for Toy Story, at least when it comes to presales and buying tickets at a certain time. But of course, even if it hits 150M in the end, I doubt Disney is crying over it being #NotARecord

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

I still think FFH is getting a late surge after MIB opens. The MCU has never been more popular than it is now, and Spidey has now been in 2 massive Avengers movies which should make up for no Iron Man. So I'd be surprised if it doesn't beat Homecoming, question is by how much.

He was a minor character in both IW and endgame. Holland's Spidey is well received and he had moments especially in IW, but not sure that's going to take this way above homecoming which had a huge hype from Civil War(The airport scene had amazing reception mostly due to Spidey moments) plus having Iron Man in the movie. Normally the sequel would have dropped from homecoming(domestic).

 

But one never know. As you say it should start seeing spurt after the coming weekend. Let us see how things go. If TS4 plays like a family movie instead of much hyped sequel, its not going to take away hype from Spidey.

[John Marston]

Toy Story 4 better be looking for at least 150m

[Cooper Legion]

FFH is definitely poor compared to CM on Pulse, but it has 0 pre-midnight previews which are a substantial driver of early presales. That+ the 6 days means I won’t put too much stock until we can see the daily distribution and are pretty close to the release.

[filmlover]

Toy Story 4 honestly feels like an even bigger deal than 3 did when it came out almost a decade ago (perhaps in part because no one really expected another one after how it ended). The fondness for these characters is off the charts. I wouldn't be surprised if it opened past $150M+ with ease.

[TMP]

30 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

FFH is definitely poor compared to CM on Pulse, but it has 0 pre-midnight previews which are a substantial driver of early presales. That+ the 6 days means I won’t put too much stock until we can see the daily distribution and are pretty close to the release.

CM's pre-sales were a different beast. Spidey's pre-sales being so far in advance definitely decreases the rush factor; I expect pre-sales to spike up closer to release. Though some of the $500m dom total predictions seem too high to me... maybe like $415m dom total.

[poweranimals]

I also think that since it releases around the 4th of July week, people don't know what their plans are and might be keeping their options open. 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, poweranimals said:

I also think that since it releases around the 4th of July week, people don't know what their plans are and might be keeping their options open. 

july 2, its opening on tuesday

Edited June 10, 2019 by john2000

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, TMP said:

Spidey's pre-sales being so far in advance definitely decreases the rush factor

CM and FFH are both roughly 60 Day presale runs. FFH’s 6-day no previews release just makes all comparisons pretty uncertain.