The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[RamblinRed]

it does feel like everything lines up for TLK - will it take advantage of it?

 

It is the largest of the Disney animated properties and the most loved. It's entering an environment where there isn't a ton of really large movies in its way. And nothing coming out after it should give it any serious obstables - Deadline was saying initial tracking for OUaTiH is about 30M - if it opens close to that it will be lucky to get to 100M. It doesn't feel like H&S is going to be any serious competition as nothing looks like it is taking off for that and a 200M DOM total wouldn't shock me. No real big family movies after it - both Dora and Angry Birds 2 should be sub 100M DOM. It just feels like it should open big and then just continue to rake in money for the next couple of months at least.

[Waffles]

 

 

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

it does feel like everything lines up for TLK - will it take advantage of it?

Not that the situations are exactly the same, as they aren't for the reasons I snipped, but...

 

I seem to recall hearing the exact same tune being sung for Toy Story 4.

 

Now pre-sales are much stronger for TLK than they were for TS4.  And the showtime argument might be the biggest tell of all right now.

 

Still, be interesting to see how well it does when it does have quite a few advantages.

Edited July 6, 2019 by Porthos

[cdsacken]

Thing is for TS4 it's a 3rd sequel to a series that had a very sufficient ending that screamed no more needed.

 

TLK isn't a sequel. It's an evolution of the original just like Jungle Book, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, etc. Additionally way more went and saw Aladdin than forecasted, this hurt TS4 tremendously but I think those who chose not to see TS4 will absolutely see TLK. Those who saw TS4 and Aladdin in theaters are likely to fork over more $$ for TLK.

 

I got a work deal on a titanium pass to the science center in Seattle. Comes with 12 "free" IMAX passes going with a group of 5 for TLK on the 20th. Can't wait, my daughter will go nuts.

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Not that the situations are exactly the same, as they aren't for the reasons I snipped, but...

 

I seem to recall hearing the exact same tune being sung for Toy Story 4.

 

Now pre-sales are much stronger for TLK than they were for TS4.  And the showtime argument might be the biggest tell of all right now.

 

Still, be interesting to see how well it does when it does have quite a few advantages.

 

But...

TS4 is likely going to finish near $400m domestic, and TLK is currently running 59% ahead of TS4 PS in Sacto. Sooooo if it extrapolates outward, and won't have a $350m movie opening 10 days after it like TS4 did, I'd say everything is currently on target (assuming the quality is there) for a $600m+ domestic run. 

Edited July 6, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Porthos]

I didn't say TLK is gonna flop, guys.    I'm just saying I'm not very impressed with the "Film X has everything going for it" argument.  For TS4 it was all the bad openings in June and that "Aladdin shouldn't be direct competition/it would have earned most of its money by then".  Also heard "strong pre-sales" "unbelievable buzz" and even eventually "sky high reviews".

 

If we want to be technical, TLK won't have a big opener after it, no.  It will have about 600m to 650m dollars of DOM market sucked out in the previous month though by two movies, depending on just where TS4 and FFH stand on opening night.  TS4 is gonna pass 300 this weekend and should be around 340 to 350 by TLK's premiere.  Even if FFH is soft, it should be at 250 to 300 by then.

 

That's not an insignificant amount of money already out of folks pockets.

 

Again, I'm not saying TLK doesn't have a lot going for it or that it's gonna under-perform.  I think 20m+ opening night is much more likely than not (though I want to pay attention to other markets where we have comps to get a handle if Sacto is over-performing).

 

All I am saying is I am really not impressed with the 'everything going for it' argument as it has failed time and time again.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I didn't say TLK is gonna flop, guys.    I'm just saying I'm not very impressed with the "Film X has everything going for it" argument.  For TS4 it was all the bad openings in June and that "Aladdin shouldn't be direct competition/it would have earned most of its money by then".  Also heard "strong pre-sales" "unbelievable buzz" and even eventually "sky high reviews".

 

If we want to be technical, TLK won't have a big opener after it, no.  It will have about 600m to 650m dollars of DOM market sucked out in the previous month though by two movies, depending on just where TS4 and FFH stand on opening night.  TS4 is gonna pass 300 this weekend and should be around 340 to 350 by TLK's premiere.  Even if FFH is soft, it should be at 250 to 300 by then.

 

That's not an insignificant amount of money already out of folks pockets.

 

Again, I'm not saying TLK doesn't have a lot going for it or that it's gonna under-perform.  I think 20m+ opening night is much more likely than not (though I want to pay attention to other markets where we have comps to get a handle if Sacto is over-performing).

 

All I am saying is I am really not impressed with the 'everything going for it' argument as it has failed time and time again.

 

You might as well throw Mufasa into the stampede yourself! 

 

I'm calling JEJ myself and telling him you think Star Wars sucks and Darth Vader is terrible 😭😭😭

 

 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

You might as well throw Mufasa into the stampede yourself! 

 

I'm calling JEJ myself and telling him you think Star Wars sucks and Darth Vader is terrible 😭😭😭

 

 

Well, Vader is kinda the baddie. 

 

===

 

Look, here's a still plausible scenario.  Sacto is over-performing a tad/pre-sales were a tiny bit frontloaded and TLK ends up at 18m on opening might.  Then does around 175 to 185 OW.  In turn has a pretty decent run and has 550 to 575 DOM total.

 

If that happens are you going to tell me that folks won't try to trot out arguments about "Well, TLK was a remake" and "animals weren't quite the draw folks thought" or even "Beyonce fans watched the movie once and then just listened to the soundtrack at home"?  Especially on opening weekend when if it comes in sub-200m OW sub-20m opening night?

 

Okay, maybe those arguments only crop up if the film does something like 15/150/500,   

 

Still, just... Eh, just a little cranky tonight I guess.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Still, just... Eh, just a little cranky tonight I guess.

 

[TalismanRing]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Well, Vader is kinda the baddie. 

 

===

 

Look, here's a still plausible scenario.  Sacto is over-performing a tad/pre-sales were a tiny bit frontloaded and TLK ends up at 18m on opening might.  Then does around 175 to 185 OW.  In turn has a pretty decent run and has 550 to 575 DOM total.

 

If that happens are you going to tell me that folks won't try to trot out arguments about "Well, TLK was a remake" and "animals weren't quite the draw folks thought" or even "Beyonce fans watched the movie once and then just listened to the soundtrack at home"?  Especially on opening weekend when if it comes in sub-200m OW sub-20m opening night?

 

Okay, maybe those arguments only crop up if the film does something like 15/150/500,   

 

Still, just... Eh, just a little cranky tonight I guess.

Nothing is set in stone but I think SW9 has a bigger chance of finishing under $600m than TLK.

[Eric Prime]

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 Days and Counting



	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	100	1,355	18,477	7.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 56

[Cooper Legion]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Still, just... Eh, just a little cranky tonight I guess.

How could you not be with FFH flopping it’s way to 180    

 

TLK is doing better presales than I thought it would, but still in the waiting period.

[Cooper Legion]

8 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Nothing is set in stone but I think SW9 has a bigger chance of finishing under $600m than TLK.

What if the only other movie to pass 600 this year is Frozen

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Nothing is set in stone but I think SW9 has a bigger chance of finishing under $600m than TLK.

 

Spoiler

Could have also rejiggered the "You're mocking me, aren't you" bit from TS1 to "You're baiting me, aren't you" but I decided to go with the a classic.

 

[Cap]

37 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Nothing is set in stone but I think SW9 has a bigger chance of finishing under $600m than TLK.

My face at this post:

 

 

 

27 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

What if the only other movie to pass 600 this year is Frozen

 

 

--

 

I'm about to start a seat count, so I reserve the right to alter this opinion based on new data.  That said, currently, I feel like the Lion King is in more of a leggy, Wonder Woman-esque run to 600M than some big push out of the gate.  The theaters are certainly expecting An Event.  The tickets sold are impressive numbers.  They just haven't changed in like two weeks.  Big push in the first three days, steady small smalls since at the theaters I track.  The true test for me when I do my seat counts next Monday.  It's going to need a BIG jump to WOW me.  Again.  I still think 550-600M is on the table.  I'm just not sold on 200M+ yet OW.

Edited July 6, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Porthos]

48 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

What if the only other movie to pass 600 this year is Frozen

You laugh, but I've already talked with @captainwondyful that my one big worry about TROS' gross is if Frozen 2 completely busts out to something like 650m+.  Then the EG hype/sucking money out of the market scenario becomes quite real for TROS, even though it's a month later.  Even 600m+ makes me a little concerned about TROS, though I'm probably still only at the slightly concerned stage at around 600-625.

 

But i think the last couple of months have proved that there is certainly something to the 'sucking money/buzz' out of the market place argument.

 

Now I would love to see Frozen 2 and TROS both sail north of 650 or so.  Just find it difficult to find a world where they both do it.

[Cooper Legion]

32 minutes ago, Porthos said:

You laugh, but

The key to my sense of humor is that my jokes are usually 50% joke, 50% serious. Often something which I think is unlikely, but a possibility underrated by the conventional wisdom (of course, even getting an accurate read on the conventional wisdom can be... pretty tricky — especially when some inconsiderate hooligans are being humorous in too many of their posts).   

 

I do have some mild concerns about F2 and J3 right before TROS, but I think there’s a lot more money to go around at Christmas. My serious expectations are maybe +- 600 for TLK, mid 600s TROS, low 500s F2 — but if history tells me anything, it’s that my serious expectations’ 90% confidence intervals should be +-50% or so. The best “predictive” tool is a little patience.

Edited July 6, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Porthos]

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	187	17838	20397	2559	12.55%

* NOTE: A theater adjusted the seats for some of their showings, resulting in an increase of two seats available.

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              107

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.6443x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 13 days before release.

3.1322x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 13 days before release.

3.8366x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 13 days before release.

1.6084x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 13 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 30 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 25, King of the Monsters had 21, andToy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales while The Lion King has 25 days of pre-sales.

 

T-13:

Pika        36 seats sold [0 sellouts/75 shows |   8097/8648 seats    |   551 seats sold |  6.37% sold]

Aladdin   70 seats sold [0 sellouts/70 shows |   9180/9997 seats   |   817 seats sold |   8.17% sold]

KotM      61 seats sold [0 sellouts/90 shows | 11465/12132 seats  |   667 seats sold |   5.50% sold]

TS4        48 seats sold [0 sellouts/90 shows | 10722/12313 seats  | 1591 seats sold | 12.92% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.5832x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 13 days before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 23 days of pre-sales while The Lion King has 25 days of pre-sales.

 

T-13:

JW2           77 seats sold  [0 sellouts/97 shows   |   8628/10113 seats | 1485 seats sold | 14.68% sold]

TLK (JW)    78 seats sold  [0 sellouts/187 shows | 15632/17983 seats | 2351 seats sold | 13.07% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Cap]

The Lion King

Thursday Previews

 

The Lion King
Second Week	7.1	7.3	7.5	Sold	Total	%	Shows
Empire 25	1587	--	1698	111	7341	23.13%	40
Lincoln Square 13	1230	1264	1288	24	6472	19.90%	21
SM Cinemagic	51	58	58	0	2434	2.38%	14

 

Note: Empire 25 has a larger jump because I skip Wednesday.

 

It's definitely taking a Holiday Pause for sales.  I'm not worried, as for reasons stated in a previous post.

 

TLK Week 2 v Comps Final Day
Movie	Sold	%	Est.
Lincoln Square 13
TLK	1288	--	--
Endgame	5259	24.49%	14.7
Aladdin	836	154%	10.78
Godzilla	1102	116.87%	7.4
Dark Phoenix	1383	93.13%	4.7
Thorykie AU	653	197.24%	6.11
Toy Story 4	1273	101.17%	12.14

 

So obviously trash Godzilla, Phoenix, and Thorykie.  But if it was released tonight, it'd comp out to 12.1-14.7M.  Definitely room for the comps to get into the 20s with a strong final push next week.  

 

Empire 25 had 7,028 AEG tickets sold for Thursday compared to  TLK's 1698.  Which, wildly enough, is 24.16%, almost an exact match for Lincoln Square.

 

Quick note for transparency:  My Endgame numbers at Lincoln Square and Empire 25 both end on 4/18, the week before its release.  I feel comfortable using them for this because LS was at 91.5% and E25 was at 84% sold out at the time.  The second highest movies I've tracked at Lincoln Square were 

 

Godzilla	1102	2124	51.88
Dark Phoenix	1383	2034	68

 

 

  

[Guest]

Everyone is excited about TLK. We at Box office Fantasy league also are too much hyped for it.