The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

Why was the old thread nuked?

Some users (fanboys) were taking Wonder Woman presale numbers and posting them on social media and acting like they were insiders themselves. Plus the thread got really really really toxic from what I remember to the point where an insider of ours wanted to leave. 

 

So if you want any numbers from before that, message Grim and ask him if he happened to save them. 

Edited April 29, 2019 by Nova

[Nova]

To be honest, I want BATB numbers because well I think Dumbo is essentially useless for Aladdin in terms of live action remakes. I don't expect Aladdin to be as huge as BATB in terms of pure numbers but I expect Aladdin to actually do decently at the box office and not be a complete dud....

Edited April 29, 2019 by Nova

[Porthos]

I've been holding off on this Pika Pika mention coz I really want to see how it's doing once EG stops completely overwhelming things.  But, well, that's gonna be a while.

 

Now, again, I only have the time and patience to do a full check in the region for Thur.  I simply do not have it in me to check even partial slates for FSS. 

 

With that out of the way, I do have some observations for its preview night.

 

Good News: It's doing fairly decent at most of the big boys in town.  The places that generate a lot of sales locally are doing... pretty decent.  Not gangbusters, but pretty decent.

Bad News: Crickets everywhere else.

 

Out of the 67 showtimes that I can track at the seat level:

2 have sold 50% or more.

6 have sold 20% to 50%.

7 have sold 10% to 20%.

 

However, and shifting metrics slightly, 

42 showings have sold 5 tickets or less.

 

Of those 42 showings, 26 haven't sold a single ticket.

 

Now this is slightly complicated by Cinema West putting up a much larger slate than everyone else.  Still.

 

So I'm not surprised to see the reports of Pikachu doing decently at theaters from local trackers.  If I focused on just Cen Arden or Cen Blue Oaks, for instance, I'd be seeing the same thing.  And I'm not saying Pikachu is doing badly locally.  Frankly I don't have the data to say either way.

 

What I CAN say is that locally folks aren't moving off the best theaters in town yet in any appreciable way.

 

Yet.

 

We'll see happens as it gets closer to release and folks firm up their movie going plans for Thur.

[Eric Prime]

7 minutes ago, TMP said:

Why was the old thread nuked?

Also, wouldn't L-addin be more pre-sale heavy than most other family comps because of it being under an already established film banner? BATB seems like a good comp to compare it to in that regard imo

I'd say so. I'd also argue Incredibles 2 would also work quite well.

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

I've been holding off on this Pika Pika mention coz I really want to see how it's doing once EG stops completely overwhelming things.  But, well, that's gonna be a while.

 

Now, again, I only have the time and patience to do a full check in the region for Thur.  I simply do not have it in me to check even partial slates for FSS. 

 

With that out of the way, I do have some observations for its preview night.

 

Good News: It's doing fairly decent at most of the big boys in town.  The places that generate a lot of sales locally are doing... pretty decent.  Not gangbusters, but pretty decent.

Bad News: Crickets everywhere else.

 

Out of the 67 showtimes that I can track at the seat level:

2 have sold 50% or more.

6 have sold 20% to 50%.

7 have sold 10% to 20%.

 

However, and shifting metrics slightly, 

42 showings have sold 5 tickets or less.

 

Of those 42 showings, 26 haven't sold a single ticket.

 

Now this is slightly complicated by Cinema West putting up a much larger slate than everyone else.  Still.

 

So I'm not surprised to see the reports of Pikachu doing decently at theaters from local trackers.  If I focused on just Cen Arden or Cen Blue Oaks, for instance, I'd be seeing the same thing.  And I'm not saying Pikachu is doing badly locally.  Frankly I don't have the data to say either way.

 

What I CAN say is that locally folks aren't moving off the best theaters in town yet in any appreciable way.

 

Yet.

 

We'll see happens as it gets closer to release and folks firm up their movie going plans for Thur.

Honestly if DP has a depressed Thursday or even Friday I don't think people should be decrying it as dead. I feel like it'll be way more kid-centric then a lot of people expected.

[Porthos]

I would also add that I am starting to see the faintest of a pulse (no pun intended) for Pikachu.

 

This is the pattern of sales region wide over the last nine days:

 

Days left   Seats Left Total Seats Prct Sold   Sold that day
T-19:		8782	   9170		4.23%		17
T-18:		8763	   9170		4.44%		19
T-17:		8719	   9170		4.92%		44
T-16:		8164	   8648		5.60%		33
T-15:		8151	   8648		5.75%		13
T-14:		8133	   8648		5.96%		18
T-13:		8097	   8648		6.37%		36
T-12:		8068	   8648		6.71%		29
T-11:		8030	   8648		7.15%		38

It's been starting to creep back up starting on last Friday.  I will be very interested to see how much it continues to ramp up over the next few days, and how quickly it does.

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I would also add that I am starting to see the faintest of a pulse (no pun intended) for Pikachu.

 

This is the pattern of sales region wide over the last nine days:

 

Days left   Seats Left Total Seats Prct Sold   Sold that day
T-19:		8782	   9170		4.23%		17
T-18:		8763	   9170		4.44%		19
T-17:		8719	   9170		4.92%		44
T-16:		8164	   8648		5.60%		33
T-15:		8151	   8648		5.75%		13
T-14:		8133	   8648		5.96%		18
T-13:		8097	   8648		6.37%		36
T-12:		8068	   8648		6.71%		29
T-11:		8030	   8648		7.15%		38

It's been starting to creep back up starting on last Friday.  I will be very interested to see how much it continues to ramp up over the next few days, and how quickly it does.

Without Endgame occupying all the presales space I think you'll start to see a bit of something here, despite DP going to mostly be walk-up based imo.

[Perfundle]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Good News: It's doing fairly decent at most of the big boys in town.  The places that generate a lot of sales locally are doing... pretty decent.  Not gangbusters, but pretty decent.

Bad News: Crickets everywhere else.

I have no frame of reference for this, so how does this compare to JW2 and FB2?

[Nova]

@Porthos you should track Pikachu's FSS. Simply just put 0s next to each showing. I'm sure you won't be that far off 

Edited April 29, 2019 by Nova

[Minnale101]

I think the reviews are good when embargo ends next week. It should pick up locally 

 

the thing about Shazam is they played the review trump card like 2 weeks before release 

 

Endgame potentially having a 200 million dollar 2nd weekend. People making plans for this weekend not next weekend 

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

I have no frame of reference for this, so how does this compare to JW2 and FB2?

I'd have to check the revision history to pull up that sort of data which is a slight PITA as I have to boot into an older drive to access it.  But right now it Pika Pika is running roughly 1/3rd behind both movies in total sales at the same point in time.

 

(caveat, for whatever reason, FB2 over-performed locally)

 

===

 

There is a slight difference in how both movies are doing right now.  Both JW2 (595 tickets sold) and FB2 (656 tickets sold) started on their first day of pre-sales from a much higher floor than Pika Pika (158 tickets sold) did.  Over the last three days, Pikachu was selling roughly 50% of the tickets that both JW2 and FB2 did (45.96% of JW2 and 51.6% of FB2) from 14 days out to 11 days out.  That's why the percentage of sales has jumped from around 20 percent to 32 percent or so.

 

Really, it's that very small batch of initial sales which is the biggest drag on Pika at the moment.

 

That's why I'm curious to see how much it picks up over the next few days, if it picks up.

 

It's also why I stress that both JW2 and FB2 are problematic comps and not to read too much into them.

 

[Tinalera]

I think Pika will get a good response in the "heres something different" variety. The past months weve had cap marvel, shazam and endgame. Not suggesting fatigue ( im not opening that can of worms!😆) but im suggesting even for non pokemon fans there will be a "this is new" type vibe. I agree with others its going to get a lot of walkups on a weekend afternoon or evening

[Cappoedameron]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'd have to check the revision history to pull up that sort of data which is a slight PITA as I have to boot into an older drive to access it.  But right now it Pika Pika is running roughly 1/3rd behind both movies in total sales at the same point in time.

 

(caveat, for whatever reason, FB2 over-performed locally)

 

===

 

There is a slight difference in how both movies are doing right now.  Both JW2 (595 tickets sold) and FB2 (656 tickets sold) started on their first day of pre-sales from a much higher floor than Pika Pika (158 tickets sold) did.  Over the last three days, Pikachu was selling roughly 50% of the tickets that both JW2 and FB2 did (45.96% of JW2 and 51.6% of FB2) from 14 days out to 11 days out.  That's why the percentage of sales has jumped from around 20 percent to 32 percent or so.

 

Really, it's that very small batch of initial sales which is the biggest drag on Pika at the moment.

 

That's why I'm curious to see how much it picks up over the next few days, if it picks up.

 

It's also why I stress that both JW2 and FB2 are problematic comps and not to read too much into them.

 

Plus neither of those movies had to have their buzz shattered by the potential king of the box office. But hey it's coming back from that which isn't that a good thing.

 

And more buzz should start to come this week as Ryan and the cast have the press tour in America + more press screenings = WOM.

Edited April 29, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Perfundle]

27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'd have to check the revision history to pull up that sort of data which is a slight PITA as I have to boot into an older drive to access it.  But right now it Pika Pika is running roughly 1/3rd behind both movies in total sales at the same point in time.

 

(caveat, for whatever reason, FB2 over-performed locally)

 

===

 

There is a slight difference in how both movies are doing right now.  Both JW2 (595 tickets sold) and FB2 (656 tickets sold) started on their first day of pre-sales from a much higher floor than Pika Pika (158 tickets sold) did.  Over the last three days, Pikachu was selling roughly 50% of the tickets that both JW2 and FB2 did (45.96% of JW2 and 51.6% of FB2) from 14 days out to 11 days out.  That's why the percentage of sales has jumped from around 20 percent to 32 percent or so.

 

Really, it's that very small batch of initial sales which is the biggest drag on Pika at the moment.

 

That's why I'm curious to see how much it picks up over the next few days, if it picks up.

 

It's also why I stress that both JW2 and FB2 are problematic comps and not to read too much into them.

 

Well, I meant in terms of how the movies are doing in the big cinemas versus the smaller cinemas, but I guess what happens is that people start going to the smaller cinemas when the bigger ones fill up.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

Well, I meant in terms of how the movies are doing in the big cinemas versus the smaller cinemas, but I guess what happens is that people start going to the smaller cinemas when the bigger ones fill up.

That I'd def have to check on the revision history as I only keep top level info on my daily tracker sheet.

 

Just from memory and impressions though, Pika Pika is underperforming at a couple of theaters that I'd expect it to do better at.

 

I mostly think though that this is a case of the bad/less useful side of the comp when it comes to both JW2 and FB2 as they can only go so far being different types of movies.

 

I can check it out though if you really want to know.

Edited April 29, 2019 by Porthos

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Minnale101 said:

Is ugly dolls headed for wonder park numbers ? 

 

Doesnt seem like it’s doing much in release week but then against it’s a kids movie 

Mid-teens isn't an awful start for original animation...especially one looking to get the single screen treatment everywhere...

 

I mean, WP made $15.8M OW DOM and it's looking to end right around a 3x domestic leg total, even with the enormous competition that followed it...that would have been a good total (especially since it's at $103M WW and counting), IF its budget was at all reasonable:)...

Edited April 29, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

Why was the old thread nuked?

 

1 hour ago, Nova said:

Some users (fanboys) were taking Wonder Woman presale numbers and posting them on social media and acting like they were insiders themselves. Plus the thread got really really really toxic from what I remember to the point where an insider of ours wanted to leave. 

 

So if you want any numbers from before that, message Grim and ask him if he happened to save them. 

 

Somebody literally tweeted @ the VP of Regal with our numbers!  Like WTF, who does that!

[TMP]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

 

Somebody literally tweeted @ the VP of Regal with our numbers!  Like WTF, who does that!

This is all such... strange behaviour. I'd have to hope the user was some under-age kid, because that's not a normal reaction to have over a funnybook movie. Like, I really don't even know what they were trying to achieve? 

[Biggestgeekever]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Somebody literally tweeted @ the VP of Regal with our numbers!  Like WTF, who does that!

Fucking hell, that's ridiculous. I managed to just miss that happening, but I'm guessing it was fanboys being pissy about the presale numbers Wonder Woman was putting up?

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

This is all such... strange behaviour. I'd have to hope the user was some under-age kid, because that's not a normal reaction to have over a funnybook movie. Like, I really don't even know what they were trying to achieve? 

 

It didn't even have to be a user, you can lurk and get that info.  In fact, I'd rather it be a lurker then think of anyone here being that dumb and thoughtless doing something like that.