The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[VanillaSkies]

On 5/6/2019 at 11:46 PM, VanillaSkies said:

 

Sorry, but your premise is that CBM's aren't family friendly, and we know that to not be true. 

In fact, MCU is known for it's epic Saturday increases specifically because they are skewing towards families during the week. You are putting far too much emphasis on pg vs pg-13 rating. 

And again, no one is saying that it isn't going to do well. 

It's pre-sales are just not currently pointing towards a breakout beyond what is expected. 

 

On 5/6/2019 at 11:54 PM, VanillaSkies said:

I'm expecting exactly where tracking has it, between 50 - 60 million, with a shot at slightly higher if the US reviews are kind to it. 

We still only have a very limited amount of reviews, so I think it will matter if the US critics take to it or not (just as it mattered with Dumbo) for it to go beyond 60 million, but 50-60 million is safe regardless. 

 

And I think that's a pretty practical expectation at that point, and so far the data is suggesting it will fall within that.  

 

On 5/7/2019 at 12:17 AM, Minnale101 said:

Yeah it’s been fun lol. I don’t pollute this thread anymore by getting off topic. 

 

Lets meet in May 10-12th weekend thread in 4-5 days and see who’s right 

 

@Minnale101

 

The weekend is not over yet, but numbers are pointing towards around a 60 million open for DP, give or take a few million.

It does seem to have performed more like an average CBM than a PG family movie given that preview number to Friday number. 

As I had mentioned in our discussion, I would have loved for it to break out further. I'm always happy when any film succeeds beyond expectations at the box office because I love when the box office succeeds. But the data was just not showing it. 

 

We all got burnt in early April with Shazam, myself included, by thinking it would be more family friendly than it was. I think the truth is that the under 10 year old crowd and families really generally only come out for the PG animated movies, as well as the live action remakes of those movies. Generally, whether fair or not, families also know that if the Disney/Pixar brand is associated with the movie then it will be age appropriate. They have earned that reputation over the years. Ignoring the actual PG rating for DP for a second, a quick look at the DP trailer doesn't necessarily suggest it will be friendly for the under 10 crowd, especially with it being voiced by an actor well know for his R rated CBMs.

That being said, I think 60 million is a phenomenal opening number for this film, and I think it will probably show better legs than Shazam and finish in the 150 million range, probably enough to warrant a sequel. It's doing decent numbers overseas as well, and should finish with a tidy sum.

I would say that the moral here is that the hard data is usually the best indicator of performance, because the data unlike us humans has no emotional attachment, has no hopes for performance. It simply just "is", and data never lies. While it is true that there are many ways to interpret the data, we have accumulated so many comps over the years here, mostly thanks to the hard work of the many people in this thread (myself not included, as I've been lurking in these forums for many years but only recently decided to make my voice heard) that we generally can make a good assessment based on hard data. 

 

It's true that this one was hard to nail down as there were so many "what ifs", but in the end it performed as any family friendly CBM or product adaptation would have. 

I tip my hat to you sir, @Minnale101 for a very rousing and fun debate over the last week.

It's that kind of debate that makes these forums and tracking box office exciting!!

[Minnale101]

1 minute ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

 

 

@Minnale101

 

The weekend is not over yet, but numbers are pointing towards around a 60 million open for DP, give or take a few million.

It does seem to have performed more like an average CBM than a PG family movie given that preview number to Friday number. 

As I had mentioned in our discussion, I would have loved for it to break out further. I'm always happy when any film succeeds beyond expectations at the box office because I love when the box office succeeds. But the data was just not showing it. 

 

We all got burnt in early April with Shazam, myself included, by thinking it would be more family friendly than it was. I think the truth is that the under 10 year old crowd and families really generally only come out for the PG animated movies, as well as the live action remakes of those movies. Generally, whether fair or not, families also know that if the Disney/Pixar brand is associated with the movie then it will be age appropriate. They have earned that reputation over the years. Ignoring the actual PG rating for DP for a second, a quick look at the DP trailer doesn't necessarily suggest it will be friendly for the under 10 crowd, especially with it being voiced by an actor well know for his R rated CBMs.

That being said, I think 60 million is a phenomenal opening number for this film, and I think it will probably show better legs than Shazam and finish in the 150 million range, probably enough to warrant a sequel. It's doing decent numbers overseas as well, and should finish with a tidy sum.

I would say that the moral here is that the hard data is usually the best indicator of performance, because the data unlike us humans has no emotional attachment, has no hopes for performance. It simply just "is", and data never lies. While it is true that there are many ways to interpret the data, we have accumulated so many comps over the years here, mostly thanks to the hard work of the many people in this thread (myself not included, as I've been lurking in these forums for many years but only recently decided to make my voice heard) that we generally can make a good assessment based on hard data. 

 

It's true that this one was hard to nail down as there were so many "what ifs", but in the end it performed as any family friendly CBM or product adaptation would have. 

I tip my hat to you sir, @Minnale101 for a very rousing and fun debate over the last week.

It's that kind of debate that makes these forums and tracking box office exciting!!

Movie is doing fine and will be success 

 

you also predicted 70+ million for endgame this weekend. Definitely won’t happen 

[VanillaSkies]

4 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Movie is doing fine and will be success 

 

you also predicted 70+ million for endgame this weekend. Definitely won’t happen 

True, but it will come close especially since Mother's Day historically has good holds for films. 

And my DP was pretty much bang on, so let's not split hairs

[Mulder]

14 hours ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-56 (+9), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular), First Day

Aladdin-81 (+12), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-109 (+6), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular), Final week

 

Everything did really good today. KoTM literally out opened Aladdin by more then double it's number. Not all bad for Aladdin though as it finally got a massive sales boost today after being dead quiet the past few days. John Wick also did really well, hoping to see a bump sooner rather then later. In total today KoTM sold a great 56 tickets, Aladdin sold 12, and John Wick sold 6.

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-64 (+8), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular), Second Day

Aladdin-72 (-9), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-111 (+2), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final week

 

What the fuck happened to Aladdin? I know I didn't miscount because I distinctly remember last night it having way more seats then what I counted today. Did like some bad reactions drop or something? Did people mistakenly buy Aladdin tickets instead of Godzilla tickets? I'm honestly confused as hell.

[lorddemaxus]

12 minutes ago, Mulder said:

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-64 (+8), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular), Second Day

 Aladdin-72 (-9), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-111 (+2), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final week

 

What the fuck happened to Aladdin? I know I didn't miscount because I distinctly remember last night it having way more seats then what I counted today. Did like some bad reactions drop or something? Did people mistakenly buy Aladdin tickets instead of Godzilla tickets? I'm honestly confused as hell.

Lol, KOTM is already catching up to Aladdin in your cinema.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Lol, KOTM is already catching up to Aladdin in your cinema.

I would not be shocked if it ties with it/passes it tonight. 

[TwoMisfits]

32 minutes ago, Mulder said:

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-64 (+8), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular), Second Day

Aladdin-72 (-9), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-111 (+2), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final week

 

What the fuck happened to Aladdin? I know I didn't miscount because I distinctly remember last night it having way more seats then what I counted today. Did like some bad reactions drop or something? Did people mistakenly buy Aladdin tickets instead of Godzilla tickets? I'm honestly confused as hell.

You can get refunds on online tickets...fandango or atom buyers must have either gotten full refunds or transferred their tickets to another day (or another movie)...

[Mulder]

22 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

You can get refunds on online tickets...fandango or atom buyers must have either gotten full refunds or transferred their tickets to another day (or another movie)...

I figured that was it. Would explain why KoTM got so many tickets this morning as well.

[Tinalera]

For next thursday london has john wick 2 showings each at west and at silver city. Cineplex isnt showing times past that day

 

Westfield also has 4(!) thursday showings of aladdin the following thursday with kotm and rocketman getting 2 each on the final thursday of the month

 

 

Edited May 11, 2019 by Tinalera
Spelling

[FlashMaster659]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	7257	7544	3.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                   287 [includes 159 tickets sold before they officially went on sale]

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be Fallen Kingdom.  I might add some more comps in the coming days, but I'm running late tonight so for now, just the one.

 

.4538x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after one day of pre-sales.           

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while KotM had 20.  Also some theaters had KotM tickets on sale for a few days before they were officially announced to the public for sale. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 1 of Pre-sales:

JW2             595 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings   |   8760/9355 seats left   |   6.36% sold]

KotM (JW)    270 tickets sold [0 sellouts/55 showings   |   6216/6486 seats left   |   4.16% sold]

KotM (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

For more context, did some digging and found that this number minus the pre-announcement seats sold would be 30 seats under Pika's first day in Sacramento

[Mulder]

1 hour ago, FlashMaster659 said:

For more context, did some digging and found that this number minus the pre-announcement seats sold would be 30 seats under Pika's first day in Sacramento

Though just to add context I imagine Pika had all of Sacramento's theaters vs KOTM not having four right @Porthos?

[Hokkaido MUTO]

I'm very unfamiliar with this; are these numbers good? Sorry for the amateur question.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Hokkaido MUTO said:

I'm very unfamiliar with this; are these numbers good? Sorry for the amateur question.

Yes very

[Hokkaido MUTO]

Just now, Mulder said:

Yes very

Awesome! Do these numbers support the possibility of the movie doing 75 mil?

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Hokkaido MUTO said:

Awesome! Do these numbers support the possibility of the movie doing 75 mil?

Would have to increase for that, looking at 60-65 rn.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Though just to add context I imagine Pika had all of Sacramento's theaters vs KOTM not having four right @Porthos?

All except the new theater which hadn't opened until part way through Pika's run, yes.  But that's one of the ones which isn't up yet so that's a wash.

 

===

 

They're still not up yet, BTW.  Looking at what's up currently, they have a LOT of Rocketman showings booked at a couple of the theaters, including some on their Giant Screens. Which is.  It is what it is.  They also have a ton of Aladdin showings in the post-4pm slots at a couple of their theaters  which is also... Just odd.

 

Kinda think they're holding off a bit to see how Aladdin continues to do in pre-sales before they start locking down KotM screens.  But it is kinda crazy they don't have anything up yet.  

 

Might be negotiations between them and WB.  Just strange that it hasn't been settled yet, even partially.

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

All except the new theater which hadn't opened until part way through Pika's run, yes.  But that's one of the ones which isn't up yet so that's a wash.

 

===

 

They're still not up yet, BTW.  Looking at what's up currently, they have a LOT of Rocketman showings booked at a couple of the theaters, including some on their Giant Screens. Which is.  It is what it is.  They also have a ton of Aladdin showings in the post-4pm slots at a couple of their theaters  which is also... Just odd.

 

Kinda think they're holding off a bit to see how Aladdin continues to do in pre-sales before they start locking down KotM screens.  But it is kinda crazy they don't have anything up yet.  

 

Might be negotiations between them and WB.  Just strange that it hasn't been settled yet, even partially.

Throws your comps off sadly though as a result.

[Porthos]

Just now, Mulder said:

Throws your comps off sadly though as a result.

At the beginning?  Sure.  But maybe not quite as much as one might think.

 

Not to get into the weeds too much, but:

 

(spoilered into-the-weeds talk for space consideration)

Spoiler

 

One of the theaters is a smaller dinner theater that only has six screens.  It usually does very brisk business and is one of the busier in town. But it has around 30 to 45 seats per screening.  They typically have six to eight screenings for big movies on opening night, three to six on smaller ones.

 

Eyeballing it, and factoring in a 4pm slot, they probably will account for, at most, four or five showings (four screens are right now tied up in the 4pm to 10 pm window).  Might be missing around 20 to 30 tickets from there as a guesstimate.

 

That new theater is still finding its legs (it had... issues during EG's OW   ), so it isn't attracting much traffic yet.  Not sure how many tickets they'd account for right away, but presently they've sold practically nothing for Aladdin.  So they're a non factor this far out.

 

That leave the two bigger theaters Cinema West controls.  One of them is in Woodland and it is solidly in the B-tier of theaters locally when it comes to sales, mostly because of its PLF screen.  KotM not being there is mostly likely hurting it, I'd suspect.  Can't say how much but the lone PLF screen it has there generally does very well in the 6pm to 9pm window, so that's a loss.

 

Which brings us to the Palladio in Roseville.  It doesn't get as much traffic as it once did (thanks, I suspect, to Century Arden re-opening), but it also is in the upper end of the B-tier locally.  It has four PLF screens and a lot of smaller auditoriums.  It might not sell a lot a first, but they tend to make up for it in volume.

 

 

When it's all added up might be looking at, oh I dunno, 50 to 75 'missing' tickets right now, I think.  Presuming those folks aren't going elsewhere. Looking at my spreadsheet of Aladdin right now, it has around 100 tickets sold from those four theaters, 

 

====

 

Just checked my revision history.  After a couple of days of sales (using that metric since there were pre pre-sales in the region), Aladdin had sold 75 tickets across the four theaters in question at that point in time (twenty of them at a smaller auditorium, so perhaps a group sale there). 

 

So thinking 50 to 75 tickets might be 'missing' from KotM's count sounds reasonable.

 

I mean, I ain't gonna adjust it or anything.  But noting that there is room for growth once (if???) this ever gets settled sounds right to me.

 

[Legion Again]

On 5/10/2019 at 5:22 PM, Thanos Legion said:

 

I think it’s done the last update already, will update if not.

17 PT 5/10/19 (End of Fri)  

1	47.5%	Avengers: Endgame
2	30.9%	Detective Pikachu
3	5.4%	The Hustle
4	2.6%	Poms
5	2.4%	Long Shot

 

Pika at 65% of AEG here, should do better in the actual daily gross though (80% on Fandango 24hr atm). Looking like it probably won’t dethrone Endgame on MT, starting to think Wick will.

17 PT 5/11/19 (End of Sat)  

1	47.7%	Avengers: Endgame
2	27.7%	Detective Pikachu
3	5.6%	The Hustle
4	3.1%	Long Shot
5	3%	Poms

Poms already fell behind Long Shot. Nothing particularly notable this update.

[cdsacken]

46 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/11/19 (End of Sat)  

1	47.7%	Avengers: Endgame
2	27.7%	Detective Pikachu
3	5.6%	The Hustle
4	3.1%	Long Shot
5	3%	Poms

Poms already fell behind Long Shot. Nothing particularly notable this update.

holy crap that horrible for DP. At least it feels that way.

Edited May 12, 2019 by cdsacken