The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Just eyeballing the AMC app in NYC, if I had to venture a guess, I would say that Endgame will win Friday just counting Pika’s pure Friday. However, I would be surprised if it were by the 4 million Deadline predicted. It seems to me that Pika has more occupants per show. Endgame is very respectable in that respect as well. The difference is the sheer number of shows that Endgame has. I feel comfortable in saying that Endgame will win the weekend by a comfortable margin, but Friday will be the closest day. 

[JB33]

5 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Just eyeballing the AMC app in NYC, if I had to venture a guess, I would say that Endgame will win Friday just counting Pika’s pure Friday. However, I would be surprised if it were by the 4 million Deadline predicted. It seems to me that Pika has more occupants per show. Endgame is very respectable in that respect as well. The difference is the sheer number of shows that Endgame has. I feel comfortable in saying that Endgame will win the weekend by a comfortable margin, but Friday will be the closest day. 

Do you think the $18M reported by Deadline is possible? Really rooting for the $70M+ OW for Endgame.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Do you think the $18M reported by Deadline is possible? Really rooting for the $70M+ OW for Endgame.

I think so. Why not? I think Pika could be about 1-2 million behind it though. 70M definitely possible for Endgame. If the number is truly 18 million, then I would say more likely than not. 

[andrewgr]

17 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Just eyeballing the AMC app in NYC, if I had to venture a guess, I would say that Endgame will win Friday just counting Pika’s pure Friday. However, I would be surprised if it were by the 4 million Deadline predicted. It seems to me that Pika has more occupants per show. Endgame is very respectable in that respect as well. The difference is the sheer number of shows that Endgame has. I feel comfortable in saying that Endgame will win the weekend by a comfortable margin, but Friday will be the closest day. 

In Seattle at least, the big difference to me is the expensive tickets.  Theaters here (at least the ones I've looked at) have maybe something like 6:1 ratio of iMAX to normal screenings, in favor of Endgame.  I've given Disney $84 for Endgame so far-- and that's just my wife and I seeing it twice!  

 

I didn't think EG and DP would compete much for the same audience, and I thought there was more than enough capacity for both of them, but I'll sheepishly admit (because I think it was a really obvious consideration I should have thought of) that I didn't give any thought to the fact that there isn't actually enough premium seat capacity for both movies.  I think DP is probably losing something like 10% per ticket sold, for people that would have popped for $21 iMax if they had the chance, but wound up settling for $14 normal.   Even at the premium end, at my local 14-screen theater, it's not even showing in iMax, it's just got one late night showing per day on Real3D for $18.50.

[Legion Again]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

I don't believe Thanos Legion put up the final MT for the day, so here we go:

 

52.3% Avengers: Endgame

27.8% Pokémon Detective Pikachu

3.4% The Hustle

2.6% Maharshi

2.4% Poms

 

(I know that @Minnale101 posted the top two, but this is for comparisons for everything in the top five.  )

 

 

21 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

 

👍   

 

Thought my flight might have wifi. Not so lucky.     

 

RIP May 3rd openers. Pika’s share of Endgame roughly doubled from yesterday, seems not super bad and not super amazing. I’d be surprised by previews below 5 or above 8, but the movie still has me 🤷‍♂️

I think it’s done the last update already, will update if not.

17 PT 5/10/19 (End of Fri)  

1	47.5%	Avengers: Endgame
2	30.9%	Detective Pikachu
3	5.4%	The Hustle
4	2.6%	Poms
5	2.4%	Long Shot

 

Pika at 65% of AEG here, should do better in the actual daily gross though (80% on Fandango 24hr atm). Looking like it probably won’t dethrone Endgame on MT, starting to think Wick will.

Edited May 11, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Shawn Robbins]

On 5/9/2019 at 12:08 AM, Sam said:

What?! What is up with this blatant ripoff of my (prayer circle) prediction?! 

I genuinely had no idea.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Looking like it probably won’t dethrone Endgame on MT, starting to think Wick will.

Just as the prophecy foretold. 👍

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just as the prophecy foretold. 👍

Shouldn't have snapped that dog. 

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

I think so. Why not? I think Pika could be about 1-2 million behind it though. 70M definitely possible for Endgame. If the number is truly 18 million, then I would say more likely than not. 

Same here

If it hits 18, 30 and 22 isn't that much to ask for and Sunday could be soft it could do like 18/29/23.

Edited May 11, 2019 by cdsacken

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just as the prophecy foretold. 👍

I think if End Game hits 70 this week It does 40 next week if not better. However I think Wick could do 50 and beat it.

[Mulder]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Just a bit of forewarning.  KotM could be a little depressed locally on Day 1, as it still hasn't shown up at the four local Cinema West locations.  Even if does finally pop up in the next hour or three, none of them will really show strong pre-sales.

 

Little odd that they haven't shown up there yet, as it's not like them to be trailing at this point in time.

 

They have around 20% market penetration when it comes to theaters locally.  Checking the screen count, they accounted for around 16% of Pikachu's screen count at final bell and 15% or so of Endgame's final screen count and 19% or so for Captain Marvel.  Not gonna go through my entire list, but about around 15 to 20 percent (on screen count NOT seat count) at final total sounds about right.

 

So consider this a heads up on that score.

 

 

Huh they're not up? That's weird. Thanks for letting us know Porthos.

[Minnale101]

Godzilla seems to be doing amazing. Hope it keeps it up 

[Mulder]

Just now, Minnale101 said:

Godzilla seems to be doing amazing. Hope it keeps it up 

Thanks. Hoping DP crosses 60 and has FB-esque legs.

[Minnale101]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

Thanks. Hoping DP crosses 60 and has FB-esque legs.

Yeah hope so too but I’m fine with whatever result. I enjoyed the movie. Can’t really stress too hard about box office results 

[FlashMaster659]

Did a full opening night check at my Regal IMAX.

 

Godzilla has sold 62 seats so far (2 IMAX, 1 3D, 1 2D).

 

Aladdin has sold 10 seats so far (2 IMAX, 1 3D, 1 2D).

[Mulder]

KoTM doubled Aladdin at my theater. Official count might not come tonight though, something shitty came up which I had to deal with.

[Mulder]

6 hours ago, Mulder said:

Mid-day count of today (Just doing KoTM because no real point in doing it for Aladdin or Wick considering earlier), only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-47, 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular), First Day

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-56 (+9), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular), First Day

Aladdin-81 (+12), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-109 (+6), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular), Final week

 

Everything did really good today. KoTM literally out opened Aladdin by more then double it's number. Not all bad for Aladdin though as it finally got a massive sales boost today after being dead quiet the past few days. John Wick also did really well, hoping to see a bump sooner rather then later. In total today KoTM sold a great 56 tickets, Aladdin sold 12, and John Wick sold 6.

[Mulder]

23 hours ago, Mulder said:

FFH midnight showings-

FFH-54 (+4 tickets), 3 screenings (1 IMAX, 1 3D, 1 Regular)

FFH midnight showings-

FFH-56 (+2), 3 screenings (1 IMAX, 1 3D, 1 Regular)

 

Slowly but surely these keep selling. Honestly insane to see that the MCU fanbase is this strong.

[Eric Duncan]

6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-56 (+9), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular), First Day

Aladdin-81 (+12), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-109 (+6), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular), Final week

 

Everything did really good today. KoTM literally out opened Aladdin by more then double it's number. Not all bad for Aladdin though as it finally got a massive sales boost today after being dead quiet the past few days. John Wick also did really well, hoping to see a bump sooner rather then later. In total today KoTM sold a great 56 tickets, Aladdin sold 12, and John Wick sold 6.

You could say that Aladdin's prospects are in...*finding my sunglasses*...a whole new world

[TMP]

If KOTM goes well beyond tracking, I hope tracking under-predicts Godzilla v Kong next year too. Just for tradition's sake.