The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Doctor Stark]

14 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

The summer slate of the medium-intensity movie goer:  

Endgame

Endgame

Aladdin

TS4

FFH

TLK    

 

Not enough money for other stuff.

I think some may have enough money for other stuff, but just need to be truly urged to spend the rest of it on anything other than the big tentpoles. Something like Dark Phoenix, which has virtually no hype and mediocre trailers, is not going to cut it. The only way a movie like it does well is if it gets rave reviews and amazing word of mouth, which I can confidently say will not happen.

[UserHN]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I think Aladdin should have been bigger, at least domestically, I'll put it that way.  Prob should have opened to at least 125m or so on the 3day.

 

But I tend to think 125m+ on a three day is enough for huge, with an exception for films that are leggy, though I won't debate the point strongly.

 

Consider my point more that I think Disney left money on the table when it came to Aladdin more than anything else.

Oh yeah. If marketed properly, Aladdin would have been a potential billionaire. But I think a $700M+ worldwide gross is good for a film that was expected by many to flop.

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	90	10948	12307	11.04%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:               1

Total Showings Added Today:            1

Total Seats Added Today:               109

Total Seats Sold Today:                    61

 

Unadjusted Comps

3.0133x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 17 days before release.

2.1368x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 17 days before release.

2.8914x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 17 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 24, and King of the Monsters had 20 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

T-17:

Pika         44 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/78 showings   |     8719/9170 seats left    |  4.92% sold]

Aladdin    31 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings   |     9147/9783 seats left     |  6.50% sold]

KotM        98 tickets sold [0 sellouts/80 showings   |  10687/11157 seats left    |  4.21% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.1156x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 17 days before release.      

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 22 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

T-17:

JW2               96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |    8962/10113 seats left  | 11.38% sold]

TS4 (JW)        55 tickets sold [1 sellouts/90 showings |    9358/10642 seats left  | 12.07% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[keysersoze123]

55 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Wellll, Aladdin broke out relative to expectations.  We're still talking about a 90m holiday-inflated 3day OW.  And John Wick 3 also broke out again relative to expectations.  

  

But we haven't had a huge movie since EG, and I absolutely think fatigue is something of a factor. 

 

To put it another way, what excess money/attention wasn't claimed by EG, both Wick 3 and Aladdin sucked up.  And even then a few 50m OW in a row (or in the case of last week a near 50m) does take its toll slightly.  

 

Or to put it yet a third way, the ratta-tat-tat-tat string of EG-EG 2nd Wknd-Pika-Wick 3-Aladdin-KotM certainly isn't helping Dark Phoenix and MIB:I get a lot of mindshare out there.

if you are talking about 300m+ grossers, yes Avengers too bite out of blockbusters. I have a feeling now looking at PS after initial surge that even Spidey wont do 400m. Scale of all those movies would look small after endgame. TS4 and TLK are not competing with Avengers.

 

For not Disney 300m+ grosser, we have to wait for IT2. That had a killer trailer and previous movie was well liked. Its going to out open the 1st movie and it will be the first blockbuster after TLK.

 

Next summer Wondy 2 will hit blockbuster status and may be even Birds of Prey early in the year. Of course Tenet is gonna print money as well. I am more concerned with Paramount or a Sony(minus MCU) or Universal having blockbuster. At least Minions 2 WW should still be huge even with a big drop.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I’m confused, it was on 3,500 when I checked. Which one did y’all use?

Dark Phoenix        	2019-06-06	THU	5749	

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

[Porthos]

On 6/2/2019 at 10:29 PM, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-02 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	23.796%	18041	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	23.135%	17540	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	15.819%	11993	Rocketman
4	08.948%	6784	Ma (2019)
5	07.906%	5994	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
6	05.265%	3992	Avengers Endgame (2019)
7	03.342%	2534	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	02.328%	1765	Booksmart
9	01.929%	1463	Dark Phoenix [combined]
10	01.576%	1195	Brightburn

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-03 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	22.595%	14405	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	19.409%	12374	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	13.462%	8582	Rocketman
4	07.752%	4942	Ma (2019)
5	06.618%	4219	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
6	06.089%	3882	Dark Phoenix [combined]
7	04.899%	3123	Avengers Endgame (2019)
8	04.608%	2938	The Secret Life of Pets 2
9	03.288%	2096	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
10	02.530%	1613	Booksmart

======

 

I was going to stop posting the 24 hour rolling tracker update, but the Dark Phoenix update might just be interesting enough to comment on:

On 5/27/2019 at 10:41 PM, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-27 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	45.851%	32753	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	15.182%	10845	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3	09.949%	7107	Avengers Endgame (2019)
4	06.379%	4557	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	04.651%	3322	Booksmart
6	03.802%	2716	Brightburn
7	03.365%	2404	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
8	01.725%	1232	A Dogs Journey
9	01.509%	1078	Rocketman
10	01.418%	1013	The Hustle (2019)

 

Dark Phoenix is outpacing KotM on the day-to-day tracker by a decent margin.  Whether that actually means anything or not, I don't know.  Except that Dark Phoenix had a lot of ground to catch up on, so maybe it's not that surprising that the low hanging seats are finally getting plucked. 

 

Be interesting to see how it plays out on Tue and Wed.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Porthos

[Tentatek]

Aladdin? Broke out to less than BATB.

 

Aladdin 1992 was a much bigger hit than the original BATB. It was the second biggest Disney animated film right behind TLK.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Tentatek

[UserHN]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

if you are talking about 300m+ grossers, yes Avengers too bite out of blockbusters. I have a feeling now looking at PS after initial surge that even Spidey wont do 400m. Scale of all those movies would look small after endgame. TS4 and TLK are not competing with Avengers.

 

For not Disney 300m+ grosser, we have to wait for IT2. That had a killer trailer and previous movie was well liked. Its going to out open the 1st movie and it will be the first blockbuster after TLK.

 

Next summer Wondy 2 will hit blockbuster status and may be even Birds of Prey early in the year. Of course Tenet is gonna print money as well. I am more concerned with Paramount or a Sony(minus MCU) or Universal having blockbuster. At least Minions 2 WW should still be huge even with a big drop.

No need to be concerned for Uni next year. They have 2 billionaires in Minions 2 and Fast 9. What's your hunch in Tarantino's OUATIH? It has big stars and a prominent director. It comes out a week after TLK but they're not really competing for the same audience.

[Joyous Legion]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Dark Phoenix is outpacing KotM on the day-to-day tracker by a decent margin.  Whether that actually means anything or not, I don't know. 

Means 7 days ago was Memorial Day 😛    

 

I mean, it’s hard to know exactly how to adjust for that — maybe if you did so perfectly it would still look good for Phoenix, maybe it would look bad, I really don’t have a clue. Tues and Wed should be a lot more valuable, like you said.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Minnale101]

8 minutes ago, Tentatek said:

Aladdin? Broke out to less than BATB.

 

Aladdin 1992 was a much bigger hit than the original BATB. It was the second biggest Disney animated film right behind TLK.

 

 

 

 

700 + million is still massive and huge success especially when the initial thought it was gonna be dumbo route

 

the lion king will no doubt be huge though 

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, UserHN said:

No need to be concerned for Uni next year. They have 2 billionaires in Minions 2 and Fast 9. What's your hunch in Tarantino's OUATIH? It has big stars and a prominent director. It comes out a week after TLK but they're not really competing for the same audience.

I am confident its gonna break out huge. My optimistic scenario it doubles basterds OW and domestic. Should gross good OS as well. It has everything, QT, 2 huge stars(its been a while since Leo has been in a summer movie) and great reviews out of Cannes.

 

75 OW/250 DOM/600m WW.

[UserHN]

10 minutes ago, Tentatek said:

Aladdin? Broke out to less than BATB.

 

Aladdin 1992 was a much bigger hit than the original BATB. It was the second biggest Disney animated film right behind TLK.

 

 

 

 

It broke out relative to expectations. Many people had already written it off because of the horrible marketing campaign. It will still gross huge money so no worries.

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, UserHN said:

No need to be concerned for Uni next year. They have 2 billionaires in Minions 2 and Fast 9. What's your hunch in Tarantino's OUATIH? It has big stars and a prominent director. It comes out a week after TLK but they're not really competing for the same audience.

I forgot Fast 9. So they are ok as well. Only Sony/Paramount are screwed.

[UserHN]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I forgot Fast 9. So they are ok as well. Only Sony/Paramount are screwed.

Disney is weak next year. I can't think of a single movie of theirs next year that is highly likely to be a billionaire. Maybe one of the MCU movies, but we still don't know what they are.

[Ledmonkey96]

15 minutes ago, UserHN said:

No need to be concerned for Uni next year. They have 2 billionaires in Minions 2 and Fast 9. What's your hunch in Tarantino's OUATIH? It has big stars and a prominent director. It comes out a week after TLK but they're not really competing for the same audience.

I doubt Minions 2 will hit a billion. Despicable me 3 dropped 120mil from Minions and I don't see Minions 2 increasing from there.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Means 7 days ago was Memorial Day 😛 

And we tried to use that as an excuse for KotM under-performing on Sun and Mon pre-sales and look how that worked out.

 

===

 

I mean, that could be a factor.  Just thought it was notable is all.  How notable remains to be seen.

[Cap]

Dark Phoenix - Pets 2 - Thorkyrie AU - Dead Don't Die - Toy Story 4

Thursday Previews

 

Note: I apparently didn't track anything but the final Thursday totals last week, so I rebooted the chart to start 6/3/2019, and only included the last full day I have data for 5/29/2019.

 

Lincoln Square 13
	5.29	6.3	Total	%	+ Sold	+ Seats
Dark Phoenix	915	1088	2034	53.49%	173	0
Pets 2	11	61	297	20.53%	50	0
Thorkyrie AU	--	203	2331	8.70%	203	2331
Dead Don't	--	8	684	1.17%	8	684
Toy Story 4	340	420	2034	20.65%	80	0

 

• Dark Phoenix's Fan Event is officially Sold Out.  Only 7 Wheelchair Spots Remain.  To play the broken record of the song that never ends: 11/10 IMAX Screen x (Last Hurrah + Fan Event) = Selling Very Well Here. ^{Which is good cause it's not selling well anywhere else.} 
• Thorkyrie AU's doing decent.  At two weeks out, Rocketman had sold 150 tickets.
• LS13 doesn't have Shaft listed on Thursday, hence not tracking.  Added in Dead Don't just for the Driver fans.

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic
	6.3	Total	%	+ Sold	+ Seats
Dark Phoenix	35	962	3.64%	--	--
Pets 2	1	1114	0.09%	--	--
Thorkyrie AU	6	1337	0.45%	--	--
Toy Story 4	15	2434	0.62%	--	--

 

• I decided just to start fresh with SMCM.  I remember my Toy Story Data glitched on me.

Edited June 4, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Eric the Minion]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

A Wrinkle In Time

3,698

4,864

15,601

Deadpool 2

23,134

28,896

41,212

SW: Solo

13,688

15,855

28,533

Jurassic World 2

9,310

12,761

23,266

Antman & The Wasp

6,613

5,990

11,108

Hotel Transylvania 3

1,753

2,674

6,605

14,754

Christopher Robin

1,560

2,442

5,355

11,509

Venom

13,602

13,818

20,867

31,569

The Grinch

3,580

4,860

10,092

17,046

Fantastic Beasts

8,956

14,238

21,861

31,880

Spider-Verse

3,715

5,208

9,858

19,972

Aquaman

8,502

9,671

15,063

Glass

3,106

3,978

6,478

17,810

Lego Movie 2

2,552

4,130

8,601

13,320

How to Train Your Dragon 3

3,724

6,674

12,935

21,313

Dumbo

3,069

4,624

9,218

16,140

Shazam

5,099

**391

***2,099

17,154

Pokemon Detective Pikachu

5,061

7,653

13,177

23,309

Aladdin

9,948

12,038

21,152

31,549

The Secret Life of Pets 2	2,967
Dark Phoenix	3,925

**12am-5am
***7pm-12am

 

Pets 2

Monday

80% of Wrinkle in Time (26.6M)

30% of Aladdin (27.3M 3-Day, 34.8M 4-Day)

59% of Detective Pikachu (31.9M)

116% of Lego 2 (39.7M)

80% of Dragon 3 (43.8M)

97% of Dumbo (44.5M)

190% of Christopher Robin (46.8M)

83% of The Grinch (56M)

169% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (74.6M)

 

Day 11-4

78% of Grinch (53M)

193% of Hotel 3 (85.3M)

 

Day 18-4

77% of Grinch (52M)

190% of Hotel 3 (83.6M)

 

Alright, there's no beating around the bush. This was an awful day for Pets. Even for a seemingly walk-up driven feature, the fact that this is so far behind Grinch is pretty disconcerting. The next few days better see a spike and fast.

 

Dark Phoenix

Monday

17% of Deadpool 2 (21.3M)

29% of Venom (23.1M)

29% of Solo (24.3M 3-Day, 29.7M 4-Day)

44% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (27.2M)

46% of Aquaman (31.3M)

106% of Spider-Verse (37.4M)

77% of Shazam! (41.2M)

59% of Ant-Man 2 (45M)

126% of Glass (51M 3-Day, 58.8M 4-Day)

42% of Fallen Kingdom (62.4M)

 

Day 11-4

28% of Venom (22.7M)

72% of Shazam! (38.5M)

 

Day 18-4

76% of Shazam! (40.8M)

 

This is also awful. But while Pets can potentially benefit from families and walk-ups, I don't think that's going to be the case for Dark Phoenix.

[TLK]

I think a lot of things are in play here. A:EG is definitely having an affect. We see air getting sucked out of the room every time there is a mega blockbuster movie. Another issue is that there are just too many blockbuster movies being released nowadays. I think studios will soon realize that if you don't have a potential billion dollar grosser you have to keep the budget under $ 150 million. This would've helped movies like Dumbo, Dark Phoenix and Godzilla.

[BK007]

It could also be how unappealing everything looks.

 

I mean, besides EG, DP and JW3, what else do we have in store?

 

Godzilla when everyone hated the previous one.

X-Men where no one realized they were continuing.

Live action remakes of Aladdin and The Lion King. I mean, yeah you people seem to like them, but Christ are they unimaginative. 

Toy Story rehashing itself again. No one asked for this.

etc