The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[UserHN]

26 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Rather than the other studios doing well this would pretty much require Disney to collapse. Number 2 is WB at 740mil, doubleing that gets you to 1480 which is still 160mil less than Disney.... and Disney is pulling ahead again since Avengers is still making more than Pikachu daily and Aladdin is well ahead of KotM. For the rest of the year looking at major movies WB has Annabelle, It and Joker, Annabelle and Joker will make middling money and I It 2 will drop hard from 1 since no one really cares about them as adults. Universal has SLoP and Hobbes and Shaw.... Sony actually has a better 2nd half of the year than either of them.

What's interesting with Sony this year are the 2 serious Oscar-bait movies: Once Upon A Time in Hollywood and Little Women. The casts of those 2 films, wow. I wonder how those 2 will fare in the box office.

Edited June 5, 2019 by UserHN

[YM!]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/variety.com/2019/film/box-office/box-office-dark-phoenix-secret-life-of-pets-2-opening-weekend-1203232810/amp/

 

Pets 2 and Phoenix: $50M-$55M OW

[YM!]

Seriously starting to doubt over $50M OW for both.

[filmlover]

17 minutes ago, UserHN said:

What's interesting with Sony this year are the 2 serious Oscar-bait movies: Once Upon A Time in Hollywood and Little Women. The casts of those 2 films, wow. I wonder how those 2 will fare in the box office.

Sony also has Jumanji and Charlie's Angels (hopefully it's good) and the Tom Hanks Mr. Rogers movie at the end of the year too. They should have a nice run.

[That One Girl]

46 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

It 2 will drop hard from 1 since no one really cares about them as adults. 

 

There’s no way It Chapter 2 drops hard.  I can see a slight decrease, but 300M is close to locked

[Porthos]

Don't feel like taking the time to combine stuff.  SLOP2 has hit number 6 on Fandango and should enter the Top Five soon:

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-04 12:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	19.418%	13484	Aladdin (2019)
2	14.681%	10194	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
3	12.035%	8357	Rocketman
4	10.439%	7249	Dark Phoenix
5	08.098%	5623	Ma (2019)
6	06.594%	4579	The Secret Life of Pets 2
7	06.394%	4440	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
8	04.257%	2956	Avengers Endgame (2019)
9	03.412%	2369	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
10	02.213%	1537	Booksmart
11	01.629%	1131	Brightburn
12	01.610%	1118	Godzilla King of the Monsters -
13	01.604%	1114	Aladdin
14	01.066%	740	Toy Story 4
15	00.877%	609	Bharat (2019)
16	00.726%	504	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
17	00.565%	392	A Dogs Journey
18	00.445%	309	The Hustle (2019)
19	00.390%	271	Saving Private Ryan (1998) Event
20	00.281%	195	Men in Black International
21	00.253%	176	The Intruder (2019)
22	00.251%	174	Pavarotti Premiere Screening Event
23	00.150%	104	Dark Phoenix Opening Night IMAX Fan Event

[Menor the Destroyer]

Dark Phoenix's 9 AM numbers compared to Godzilla would suggest 4.6-10.1-14.2-11.4 or about a 40 million weekend. Adjusting for a slight Atom effect maybe $45 million. Not sure how the dire reviews will affect things, these are even worse than Godzilla and are low enough to deter people potentially.

[Porthos]

Just now, Menor said:

Dark Phoenix's 9 AM numbers compared to Godzilla would suggest 4.6-10.1-14.2-11.4 or about a 40 million weekend. Adjusting for a slight Atom effect maybe $45 million. Not sure how the dire reviews will affect things, these are even worse than Godzilla and are low enough to deter people potentially.

The trendline in Sacramento would suggest a mid 4s preview number as well, from what I can tell.  But the reviews are a bit of a wildcard.  However that might show up more on Sat/Sun than Thr/Fri.

 

What they could be doing now is stopping the film from reaching its upper potential for Thr/Fri rather than outright harming it, which could happen later in the weekend.

[Menor the Destroyer]

22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The trendline in Sacramento would suggest a mid 4s preview number as well, from what I can tell.  But the reviews are a bit of a wildcard.  However that might show up more on Sat/Sun than Thr/Fri.

 

What they could be doing now is stopping the film from reaching its upper potential for Thr/Fri rather than outright harming it, which could happen later in the weekend.

I do think walkups will be hurt significantly, especially because the tone of the reviews are more like BvS than Venom. That would probably show up in the same-day Pulse sales as well. 

Edited June 5, 2019 by Menor

[el sid]

Back again .
Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:

 

Dark Phoenix: 102/15 – yesterday it were 51/15, on Monday 32/15; CM had 650/15, Glass 113/15, Fantastic Beasts 2 196/15, all same day and time of the day and Shazam had on Thursday 175/15.
Pets 2: 52/15 – yesterday 34/15, on Monday 21/15; The Lego Movie 2 had 120/15, Wonder Park 24/15, Dumbo 123/15, Aladdin 191/15, How to Train Your Dragon 3 100/15, all same day and time of the day.

Men in Black International: 7/15 – yesterday and on Monday it were only 2/15.
Shaft: 1/15
Toy Story 4: 4/15

 

And Pulse 10:50-11:04 EST:

Pets 2: 164/15 – The Lego Movie 2 had 113/15, Dumbo 158/15, Aladdin 347/15, How to Train Your Dragon 3 134/15, all same day and time of the day. Interesting development!
Dark Phoenix: 154/15 – CM had 884/15, Glass 156/15, Fantastic Beasts 2 309/15 and Shazam had on Thursday 322/15. If you cancel CM as comparison, the other comps at the moment would mean an OW around 30M (FB2), 40M (Glass) or a bit over 50M (I calculate that Shazam ca. doubled its sales on Thursday and so on Wednesday it would also have been ca. 150/15).

MiBI: 6/15
Shaft: 1/15
Toy Story 4: 15/15

Edited June 5, 2019 by el sid

[TalismanRing]

43 minutes ago, Menor said:

Dark Phoenix's 9 AM numbers compared to Godzilla would suggest 4.6-10.1-14.2-11.4 or about a 40 million weekend. Adjusting for a slight Atom effect maybe $45 million. Not sure how the dire reviews will affect things, these are even worse than Godzilla and are low enough to deter people potentially.

Multi will most likely  be lower even with the smaller preview numbers.. 

 

Apocalypse' MD inflated w/e multi was 8.02 with 8.2m in previews.  It would have been closer to 7.5 w/o the soft Sunday drop.
 

[KP1025]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Seriously starting to doubt over $50M OW for both.

 

Quite a few sequels have had really ugly drops from their predecessors this year. Lego Movie 2, Happy Death Day 2, A Dog's Journey, and Godzilla 2 all dropped around 50% or more on OW. It looks like SLOP2 could continue that trend. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

28 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Multi will most likely  be lower even with the smaller preview numbers.. 

 

Apocalypse' MD inflated w/e multi was 8.02 with 8.2m in previews.  It would have been closer to 7.5 w/o the soft Sunday drop.
 

That's quite likely. With the Saturday and Sunday numbers at such a small percentage of their eventual values my early guess is more of a ballpark than anything

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

Quite a few sequels have had really ugly drops from their predecessors this year. Lego Movie 2, Happy Death Day 2, A Dog's Journey, and Godzilla 2 all dropped around 50% or more on OW. It looks like SLOP2 could continue that trend. 

That's been a trend for a while. Plenty of sequels crashed and burned during 2015-2016.

[MaxAggressor]

https://deadline.com/2019/06/dark-phoenix-to-rise-above-secret-life-of-pets-2-in-170m-global-debut-1202627515/

 

Illumination/Universal’s The Secret Life of Pets 2 may win over U.S./Canada this weekend with a projected $60M, but Disney/Fox’s Dark Phoenix is expected to take over the world with at least a $170M global day and date launch.

 

Here in U.S./Canada, Dark Phoenix eyeing $50M-$55M at 3,700 theaters, and pacing far behind the previous title 2016’s X-Men: Apocalypse ($65.7M 3-day,  $79.8M Memorial Day 4-day opening).

 

Current tracking for Dark Phoenix in China is between $50M-$60M, repping around 50% of the pic’s $120M overseas start. There’s a chance Dark Phoenix could rise to $135M abroad.

[TalismanRing]

12 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2019/06/dark-phoenix-to-rise-above-secret-life-of-pets-2-in-170m-global-debut-1202627515/

 

Illumination/Universal’s The Secret Life of Pets 2 may win over U.S./Canada this weekend with a projected $60M, but Disney/Fox’s Dark Phoenix is expected to take over the world with at least a $170M global day and date launch.

 

Here in U.S./Canada, Dark Phoenix eyeing $50M-$55M at 3,700 theaters, and pacing far behind the previous title 2016’s X-Men: Apocalypse ($65.7M 3-day,  $79.8M Memorial Day 4-day opening).

 

Current tracking for Dark Phoenix in China is between $50M-$60M, repping around 50% of the pic’s $120M overseas start. There’s a chance Dark Phoenix could rise to $135M abroad.

That O/S opening would probably mean an under $400m WW.  Yikes

 

Higher end multis-

 

60-70m OS-C= even with a 2.5 multi = $150-175m

China $50-60m (4 day) = $90-100m

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

That O/S opening would probably mean an under $400m WW.  Yikes

 

Higher end multis-

 

60-70m OS-C= even with a 2.5 multi = $150-175m

China $50-60m (4 day) = $90-100m

Deadline OS predictions mean squat. You remember 230m OW OS for Zilla last week.

 

Anyway this is a train wreck. I am thinking below Zilla WW.

[DAJK]

28 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2019/06/dark-phoenix-to-rise-above-secret-life-of-pets-2-in-170m-global-debut-1202627515/

 

Illumination/Universal’s The Secret Life of Pets 2 may win over U.S./Canada this weekend with a projected $60M, but Disney/Fox’s Dark Phoenix is expected to take over the world with at least a $170M global day and date launch.

 

Here in U.S./Canada, Dark Phoenix eyeing $50M-$55M at 3,700 theaters, and pacing far behind the previous title 2016’s X-Men: Apocalypse ($65.7M 3-day,  $79.8M Memorial Day 4-day opening).

 

Current tracking for Dark Phoenix in China is between $50M-$60M, repping around 50% of the pic’s $120M overseas start. There’s a chance Dark Phoenix could rise to $135M abroad.

I mean, I doubt those deadline numbers will be accurate come Sunday (DP around 40 and Pets around 50) but still, my club might end up being closer than most people thought  

[Joyous Legion]

32 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

There’s a chance Dark Phoenix could rise to $135M abroad

Alternatively, it could fall below 100.

[Barnack]

All those numbers looked optimistic even before the RT score came out.