The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[VanillaSkies]

2 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

Yeah it’s pretty nice for T-Mobile users. I tend to favor their Dunkin Donuts and Shell deals, and usually send the movie deals to my friend since tickets where I live aren’t as expensive as in NY. And yeah, it’s how I found out about Atom a couple of years ago. However, I’m not sure how significant it is among T-Mobile customers as I don’t think many even know about T-Mobile Tuesdays. My parents don’t use them, but I ask for their codes sometimes, and none of my other family members use them. I’d say way less than half of that 81 million use it. And of those, it’ll probably matter what the movie is. It was great to use when Wonder Woman or Suicide Squad is the movie being offered, but I’m not sure how much it helps for movies that don’t interest the GA much. I don’t think it really helped Long Shot or Hellboy much. 

Yeah, it's definitely only a small portion of it's user base that would be using it... 
 

But of the 81 million users, if say about 5% of them use the deal, that translates to a little over 4 million tickets. At the average ticket price of $10, that's 40 million. Now, some of those people would have seen the movie anyways, but you are still adding tens of millions of dollars to a movie's opening weekend. It could make the difference between a movie opening to $40 million or $50 million+.

The thing that really intrigues me at this moment is that they are going to do the $4 movie ticket again this upcoming Tuesday.

If they decide to do a movie deal of some sort every Tuesday for the summer months, more and more of the user base will discover the deals from word of mouth (including the many, many articles that have been written just this week about the deal) that by the end of the summer we would see a substantial number of customers redeeming.

And it would be exactly the shot in the arm Hollywood needs for the summer, as box office this year is still lagging about 7% behind last year. 

[VanillaSkies]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Some movies are just beyond helping:).  My spouse said someone would have to pay him $4 to go see Hellboy - free was still gonna be too much:).

Yeah, I as somewhat interested in seeing Hellboy, but after those trailers I probably would have even turned down a free ticket. In my opinion, the trailers just made the movie look plain awful, and unlike the original Hellboy films, there didn't even seem to be the same humor in this one. It looked like the F4 remake all over again. 

[YM!]

4 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

The Secret Life Of Pets 2

North Shore Cinema

Mequon, WI

6/6/19

 

6:00 - 75/149

8:15 - 48/149

10:30 - 9/149

 

 

Dark Phoenix

North Shore Cinema

Mequon, WI

6/6/19

 

7:00 - 73/119

7:30 - 68/301 - UltraScreen 

10:00 - 41/119

10:30 - 19/301 - UltraScreen 

Pets 2:

45% of Aladdin ($3.15M)

83% of Pokémon: Detective Pikachu ($4.73M) (Note 4:00 showing was missing)

139% of How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World ($4.17M) (Note a showing was missing)

142% of The Grinch ($2.84M)

 

Anywhere From $3M-$4M seems right

 

 

Phoenix:

69% Of Aladdin ($4.83M)

Edited June 7, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Cap]

Dark Phoenix - Secret Lives of Pets 2

Final Thursday Sales

 

June 6, 2019 - Thursday Previews - Final Sales
Movie	Sold	Total	%
Lincoln Square 13
Dark Phoenix	1383	2034	68.00%
Pets 2	152	981	15.49%
Southern Maine Cinemagic
Dark Phoenix	99	962	10.29%
Pets 2	9	1114	0.81%

 

 

Comps!	Lincoln Square 13		Southern Maine Cinemagic
	%	Est	%	Est
Dark Phoenix
Aladdin	165%	11.58M	81.81%	5.72M
Godzilla	125%	7.9M	49.25%	3.1M
Secret Lives of Pets 2
Pika Pika	24.79%	1.41M	5.69%	325K

 

• So, obviously, as we ( @TalismanRing ) have pointed out all week: Lincoln Square's over-performing.  For giggles, I went back to look at how over the LS13 estimates were for Aladdin and Godzilla.  *Pauses to search, oh my god, this thread moves fast, two weeks ago was 67 pages ago*
  
  Turns out I didn't do an estimate for Aladdin due to not having IMAX comps.  Godzilla's estimate was 9.69M.  It's actual was 6.3 (35% off the actual), so adjusting for that the estimate drops to 5.135M
   
• So I feel safe with a 3.1M to 5.135M range for Dark Phoenix.  Aladdin had a holiday weekend and feels way more universal, whereas both Phoenix and Godzilla feel like hardcore fan events.
   
• Pets could go either. I wouldn't be shocked by 1.41M or the 325K.  But let's says, I go with 325K for Pets, cause then hopefully this will turn into Rocketman redux; when I said I trusted LS13 more than SMCM, and SMCM ended up being right on the money, and LS13 wrong. 

 

 

 

[DAJK]

Pets did equivalent of about 3.5M in previews at my theatre tonight. That's above Aladdin, which opened to 45M or so here, and also above Daddy's Home 2 which opened to 53M (3M previews). It's under Grinch's 3.9M which did a ridiculous 115M+ so who knows. But 50M or more seems set from that number.

 

Anyways, Victoria update:

 

Dark Phoenix:

IMAX - 100 tickets

64% Godzilla - 4M

62% Aladdin - 4.35M

106% Shazam - 6.27M

27% Captain Marvel - 5.68M

100% Glass - 3.7M

39.6% Fantastic Beasts - 3.6M

 

Pets 2

Regular - 33 tickets

114% Grinch - 2.5M

50% Pikachu for the same showtime - 2.85M

 

 

Overall, Dark Phoenix seems to have quite a bit of range on it, but splitting the difference gives something close to 4.5M. I don't have a ton of family comps for Pets, since I don't want to compare it to IMAX showings, but the comps I do have point to something within that 2.5-2.8M range, but if I consider my theatre's performance tonight, I might bump that up to 3M. 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Pulse still shows 4.5-5. Pace of sales is marginally better than Godzilla but it's starting from a significant deficit

[Eric is Quiet]

@Menor I don't mean to bother you, but what are Pets' previews looking like? I'm honestly way more interested in that movie's previews tbh

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	90	10764	12307	12.54%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today:          1

Total Seats Sold Today:                    54

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.9961x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 14 days before release.

2.0656x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 14 days before release.

2.5462x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 14 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 24, and King of the Monsters had 20 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

T-14:

Pika         18 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/75 showings   |     8133/8648 seats left    |  5.96% sold]

Aladdin    21 tickets sold [0 sellouts/70 showings   |     9250/9997 seats left     |  7.47% sold]

KotM        46 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings   |  11010/11616 seats left    |  5.22% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.0298x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 14 days before release.      

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 22 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

T-14:

JW2               59 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |    8705/10113 seats left  | 13.92% sold]

TS4 (JW)        50 tickets sold [0 sellouts/90 showings |    9192/10642 seats left  | 13.63% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-25 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	14	2016	2338	13.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Sun:                28

 

No comps at the moment. 

 

Next update: Sun 6/9

Edited June 7, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-05 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	19.351%	13051	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	14.260%	9618	Dark Phoenix [combined]
4       12.963% 8743    Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined] 
3	12.305%	8299	Rocketman
5	11.006%	7423	The Secret Life of Pets 2
6	05.338%	3600	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
7	05.074%	3422	Ma (2019)
8	04.239%	2859	Avengers Endgame (2019)
9	02.912%	1964	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
10	02.053%	1385	Booksmart

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-06 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	24.160%	17057	Dark Phoenix [combined]
2	18.416%	13002	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	15.276%	10785	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	10.374%	7324	Rocketman
5	09.264%	6541	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
6	04.282%	3023	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
7	04.072%	2875	Ma (2019)
8	03.507%	2476	Avengers Endgame (2019)
9	02.067%	1459	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
10	01.388%	980	Booksmart

Last Thr:

On 5/30/2019 at 10:33 PM, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-30 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	28.667%	20381	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
2	21.601%	15358	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
3	16.295%	11585	Rocketman
4	08.730%	6207	Ma (2019)
5	05.947%	4228	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
6	04.315%	3068	Avengers Endgame (2019)
7	02.751%	1956	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	02.470%	1756	Booksmart
9	01.485%	1056	Brightburn
10	01.384%	984	Toy Story 4 [combined]
11	01.015%	722	Dark Phoenix [combined]

Edited June 7, 2019 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

Aladdin down less than 30% from last Thurs on Pulse, with a presumably higher % of walkups a week later 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Aladdin down less than 30% from last Thurs on Pulse, with a presumably higher % of walkups a week later 

Those family film/summer legs kicking in. 👍

[keysersoze123]

Summer weekdays will get stronger week on week. So dont just go by PS. Anyway Aladdin should have a great hold.

[lorddemaxus]

6 hours ago, UserHN said:

And Sony won the race for that vacant former Avatar 2 date next year. They just dated Uncharted for Dec 18, 2020.

I wouldn't call that a win. Another studio could put a franchise film in that spot and win December easily. I'm still hoping that WB puts Suicide Squad 2 on that spot.

Edited June 7, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[Porthos]

Sooooo, about that theory that the new Verified system on RT was artificially inflating audience scores on Rotten Tomatoes and was now worthless and, and I quote here, "a fanboys club".   

 

====

 

Dark Phoenix opened at 65% verified positive 3.71/5 (610 reviews) | All Audience 62% positive 3.46/5 (2,007 reviews).  

 

I strongly suspect it ain't staying that high.

Edited June 7, 2019 by Porthos

[TMP]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Sooooo, about that theory that the new Verified system on RT was artificially inflating scores on Rotten Tomatoes and was now "worthless" and a, and I quote here "a fanboys club".   

 

====

 

Dark Phoenix opened at 65% verified positive 3.71/5 (610 reviews) | All Audience 62% positive 3.46/10 (2,007 reviews).  

 

I strongly suspect it ain't staying that high.

A movie with an 11% fresh having a 65% audience rating is still incredibly inflated. Your film's gotta be Dark Phoenix-level bad to not get a positive skew, considering something like Godzilla 2 has a 85% audience score, which... seems like it couldn't be further from the truth.

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, TMP said:

A movie with an 11% fresh having a 65% audience rating is still incredibly inflated. Your film's gotta be Dark Phoenix-level bad to not get a positive skew, considering something like Godzilla 2 has a 85% audience score, which... seems like it couldn't be further from the truth.

Dark Phoenix has a 22% rating at the moment, not 11%.  And it's the exact type of film where fans would treat it better than critics.  But this has ALWAYS been the case on RT and similar sites.  For instance, Batman v Superman has a 63 percent audience approval (and yes that one has been review bombed in a positive direction, but it's hardly the only example - I just don't feel like looking for better ones this late at night).

 

More to the point, I am perhaps questioning the validity of making sweeping generalizations from a sample size of two (Aladdin and KotM).

 

That does not strike me as very rigorous, personally.

 

EDIT::: Plus the minor point where I intimated that I will be surprised if the audience rating stays fresh.   More than a little surprised, actually.

 

Hence my comment in the first place.

Edited June 7, 2019 by Porthos

[TimmyRiggins]

The RT audience score being verified now doesn't stop people from demolishing a film for the fun of it anyway. We'll see PostTrak and Cinemascore. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

I still don't put that much stock into RT Audience Score but yeah that's not a good sign. Does correlate with the really bad Maoyan score Dark Phoenix currently has in China.

[TalismanRing]

9 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

The RT audience score being verified now doesn't stop people from demolishing a film for the fun of it anyway. We'll see PostTrak and Cinemascore. 

Sane people are not going to spend money on a ticket (plus Fandango fees) just to give it a negative review for fun.  

 

Edited June 7, 2019 by TalismanRing