The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

Interesting numbers for FFH. Tickets sold for tomorrow are up 16% from yesterday at the same point, 89433 vs 77116 in the same 226 theaters, with seats available only growing by 2%. However estimated total gross is much closer with $855,764 for July 4 vs $833,209 for July 3 at the same point, due to estimated ATP going from $10.80 to $9.57, I suspect this is due to matinee loading. Anyway these are very strong numbers and I suspect the 4th's lead will be even higher in the morning update as before Pulse went down July 3 was always way ahead, so July 4 probably has a significantly stronger late sales trend than July 3rd.

[XXR & Friends]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Interesting numbers for FFH. Tickets sold for tomorrow are up 16% from yesterday at the same point, 89433 vs 77116 in the same 226 theaters, with seats available only growing by 2%. However estimated total gross is much closer with $855,764 for July 4 vs $833,209 for July 3 at the same point, due to estimated ATP going from $10.80 to $9.57, I suspect this is due to matinee loading. Anyway these are very strong numbers and I suspect the 4th's lead will be even higher in the morning update as before Pulse went down July 3 was always way ahead, so July 4 probably has a significantly stronger late sales trend than July 3rd.

 

I'm thinking $22m for the 4th. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

 

I'm thinking $22m for the 4th. 

I won't say a number because I've been a big optimist on this one. That said, these presales are very promising and certainly better than I expected given how the trend had been on Pulse.

[Eric is Quiet]

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	100	1,234	18,477	6.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 52

 

Literally half of yesterday when it comes to tickets sold. I expected that, since yesterday was a big promo day, and this still seems solid.

[Porthos]

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	183	17794	20157	2363	11.72%

 

Total Showings Added Today:               2

Total Seats Added Today:                  176

Total Seats Sold Today:                     138

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.7545x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 15 days before release.

3.2548x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 15 days before release.

4.2196x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 15 days before release.

1.5870x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 15 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 30 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 25, King of the Monsters had 21, andToy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales while The Lion King has 25 days of pre-sales.

 

T-15:

Pika        13 seats sold [0 sellouts/75 shows |   8151/8648 seats    |   497 seats sold | 5.75% sold]

Aladdin   43 seats sold [0 sellouts/70 shows |   9217/9997 seats   |   726 seats sold | 7.26% sold]

KotM      39 seats sold [0 sellouts/87 shows | 11056/11616 seats  |   560 seats sold | 4.82% sold]

TS4         62 seats sold [1 sellout/90 shows  | 10818/12307 seats  | 1489 seats sold | 12.10% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.6205x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 15 days before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 23 days of pre-sales while The Lion King has 25 days of pre-sales.

 

T-15:

JW2           92 seats sold  [0 sellouts/97 shows   |   8764/10113 seats | 1349 seats sold | 13.34% sold]

TLK (JW)  113 seats sold  [0 sellouts/183 shows | 15557/17743 seats | 2186 seats sold | 12.32% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

Edited July 4, 2019 by Porthos

[Cap]

The Lion King

Thursday Previews

 

Just The Lion King and just Lincoln Square and Cinemagic tonight.  I got distracted by Captain America's Birthday for a second, and I'm not starting counting Empire 25 at 3AM.  I will have updates for that theater, and Hobbs & Shaw at all three locals on Friday.

 

The Lion King
	6.24	6.26	6.27	6.28	7.1	7.3	Total	Shows	Sold	%
Lincoln Square	1002	1116	1144	1182	1230	1264	6472	21	34	19.53%
SM Cinemagic	12	37	43	45	51	58	2434	14	7	2.38%

 

I'm getting the "calm before the storm" feeling thanks to Spidey sucking up all the focus this week.  Next week will be the big push/test.

[john2000]

@Menor  any update for july 4 ?

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, john2000 said:

@Menor  any update for july 4 ?

Wi-fi issues prevented program finishing. Presales definitely look to be above yesterday but hard to say by how much. My best estimate is total presales (in $) 13% above yesterday, with seats 29% ahead.

Edited July 4, 2019 by Menor

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Wi-fi issues prevented program finishing. Presales definitely look to be above yesterday but hard to say by how much.

so will we probably see an increase tommorrow ? 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

CINEPLEX SCOTIABANK MONTREAL

 

THE LION KING - THURSDAY JULY 18 2019

 

Ultra AvX 3D

6:30pm - 88/378

9:30pm - 32/378

Regular

5:00pm - Fan Event - Non Reserved

6:00pm - 24/385

8:00pm - Non Reserved

9:00pm - 23/385

11:00pm - Non Reserved

 

FAST & FURIOUS PRESENTS: HOBBS & SHAW - THURSDAY AUG 1 2019

 

IMAX

7:00pm - 9/343

10:10pm - 0/343

Regular 3D

7:30pm - 0/390

10:40pm - 0/390

 

Lion King has more showtimes on Thursday than Aladdin and Toy Story 4 did but 3 of them aren't reserved seating including the fan event. I assume they are expecting it to do well but not expecting sellouts on Thursday. But the overall numbers look good.

 

Hobbs and Shaw isn't going to to blow up presales anywhere it seems. 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

CINEPLEX FORUM (MONTREAL)

 

THE LION KING - THURSDAY JULY 18 2019

 

IMAX

6:30 - 48/306

IMAX 3D

9:25 - 28/306

 

FAST & FURIOUS PRESENTS: HOBBS & SHAW - THURSDAY AUG 1 2019

 

No Preview Showtimes listed Yet

 

I'll track this theater too since there is IMAX shows. 

 

 

Edited July 5, 2019 by EarlyDeadlinePredictions

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, john2000 said:

so will we probably see an increase tommorrow ? 

Unless walkups are bad

[john2000]

24 minutes ago, Menor said:

Unless walkups are bad

fingers crossed then

[Waffles]

 

 

Edited July 4, 2019 by Waffles

[FlashMaster659]

On 7/3/2019 at 7:26 AM, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 134/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 151/203

9:00 PM - 156/203

12:00 AM - 43/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 22/78

6:30 PM - 10/63

7:00 PM - 13/78

8:45 PM - 14/60

9:15 PM - 2/78

9:45 PM - 4/63

10:15 PM - 4/78

12:00 AM - 5/60

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 0/167

8:00 PM - 4/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

12:15 AM - 0/79

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:15 AM - 0/44*

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 35/63

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 37/63

10:45 PM - 18/63

11:15 PM - 15/61

11:45 PM - 2/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 18/44

6:15 PM - 13/55

6:30 PM - 42/217

6:45 PM - 4/48

7:00 PM - 17/79

7:15 PM - 5/44

7:45 PM - 9/44

8:00 PM - 16/45

8:15 PM - 14/167

8:30 PM - 9/45

8:45 PM - 2/44

9:00 PM - 9/49

9:15 PM - 0/44

9:30 PM - 2/55

9:45 PM - 3/217

10:00 PM - 0/48

10:15 PM - 0/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 3/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

12:00 AM - 0/44

12:15 AM - 0/49

12:30 AM - 0/44

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:00 AM - 0/217

1:15 AM - 0/48*

1:30 AM - 0/79*

 

Total

 

881(+17)/5158 (17.1%)

 

*These shows are glitched sell-outs. However because of the pattern the showtimes form, it's safe to assume how many seats are in the theater and the zero have been sold so far based on how other shows around that time are doing.

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 136/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 152/203

9:00 PM - 156/203

12:00 AM - 44/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 22/78

6:30 PM - 10/63

7:00 PM - 13/78

8:45 PM - 14/60

9:15 PM - 2/78

9:45 PM - 4/63

10:15 PM - 4/78

12:00 AM - 5/60

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 0/167

8:00 PM - 4/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

12:15 AM - 0/79

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:15 AM - 0/44*

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 35/63

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 37/63

10:45 PM - 18/63

11:15 PM - 24/61

11:45 PM - 2/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 20/44

6:15 PM - 13/55

6:30 PM - 42/217

6:45 PM - 4/48

7:00 PM - 17/79

7:15 PM - 12/44

7:45 PM - 9/44

8:00 PM - 18/45

8:15 PM - 14/167

8:30 PM - 9/45

8:45 PM - 2/44

9:00 PM - 9/49

9:15 PM - 0/44

9:30 PM - 2/55

9:45 PM - 3/217

10:00 PM - 0/48

10:15 PM - 0/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 3/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

12:00 AM - 0/44

12:15 AM - 0/49

12:30 AM - 0/44

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:00 AM - 0/217

1:15 AM - 0/48*

1:30 AM - 0/79*

 

Total

 

905(+24)/5158 (17.5%)

 

1.3250x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 after 10 days of pre-sales

 

*These shows are glitched sell-outs. However because of the pattern the showtimes form, it's safe to assume how many seats are in the theater and the zero have been sold so far based on how other shows around that time are doing.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Had to do a partial data check of FFH today since I will be on vacation until Monday. From 89 theaters sales for tomorrow are 30758 tickets vs 31886 for today at the same point, but estimated $ sales are $317k for tomorrow from those theaters vs $305k today at the same point due to less matinee loading. The showings count is also somewhat greater for tomorrow so I would expect better walk-ins for sure. I think we will see a decent-sized bump.

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, my wife and son watched the TLK featurette a few minutes ago - they were almost squealing with delight. That's a grown woman and a 16 yr old teenager. I feel like TLK is really going to do really well. As we saw with TFA and JW, Nostalgia is a very powerful motivator and Favreau has alot of good will with his TJB remake and his Marvel work. 

[Cap]

Quick scan of Spidey on the way to the pool  

 

Cinemagic: My local IMAX is 19 tickets for the IMAX screen at 4, and 17 seats for 3:30pm standard. Rest of the theater is light. Recliners and stadium theaters are at at 25% for the day. Definitely taking a hit up here. 

 

Lincoln Sqaure’s IMAX an Dolby are about at 75% for the day with a drop off to under 25% for the last late show.

 

 

[el sid]

That Pulse is gone is so sad. All the lurking if a movie has finally recovered or could be a break out hit...and all the collected data which are now completely worthless.

It's very nice to see that many members are still busy here but of course I do not have the patience to wait for all the reports. This crises was a good inducement for me to practice how to „open“ US-cinema halls to see the sold tickets and reserved seats. It's still tricky sometimes because if I deny my location, the site is blocked and if a allow it the site is black. But I learned that it works best with the amc-theaters. E.g. in Miami they really calculate how many thousands miles I would have to travel . By the way I will buy a ticket from time to time (if it works), quasi for their service.
So I have chosen (but could still change or add something and that's mainly why I write that all) 8 theaters which are in (big) towns on the West Coast, East Coast, in Texas, Florida, Michigan and Arizona and then where I think that it's crowded enough (could be wrong sometimes).

PS: I saw that boxofficemojo.com offers a special deal to get access to IMDbPro. That deal ends on July, the 16th. For amazon Prime members a years would cost 60% less, 95US$ (after one month is free to test it).

PPS: To that "how full the parking lot was". Don't laugh, that's not that different from what I did a few years ago (before cinema in Germany became more and more unpopular). I was pretty nervous when I visited my usual theater (mathäser, one of the biggest of the country). I knew that if I have to wait to enter the escalator at a certain time it will be a good evening for the (new) movies, if it's halfway crowded it will be ok but if I look into the foyer and only some groups of people are to see → flops .

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, el sid said:

To that "how full the parking lot was". Don't laugh,

 

That would be stupid to laugh at, trades did develop system grabbing public traffic/camera stream and use that type of information:

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/article-quandl-and-the-invasive-use-of-data/

 

Or using satellite:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/stock-value-satellite-images-investing/586009/

 

By tracking parking lot of say home depot they can try to predict the next quarter result.

 

For theater parking lot the different from big nights/big movie and regular one is so high that it must be a really good one to use.

 

 

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, el sid said:

PPS: To that "how full the parking lot was". Don't laugh, that's not that different from what I did a few years ago (before cinema in Germany became more and more unpopular).

 

7 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

That would be stupid to laugh at, trades did develop system grabbing public traffic/camera stream and use that type of information:

To be fair, we laughed mostly because the person on this board who would invoke it regularly wasn't very good at interpreting "parking lot data".

Edited July 4, 2019 by Porthos