The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cap]

The Lion King - Hobbs & Shaw

Thursday Previews

 

Slow weekend.  I can assume that FFH sucked up most of the air.  I also think TLK's planning like a super-sized family film.  Most of the non-PLF showings at both Lincoln Square and Cinemagic haven't moved since the first day.

 

The Lion King
	6.24	6.26	6.27	6.28	7.1	Total	Shows	+ Sold	%
Empire 25					1587	7341	40		21.62%
Lincoln Square	1002	1116	1144	1182	1230	6472	21	38	19.00%
SM Cinemagic	12	37	43	45	51	2434	14	6	2.09%

 

In memoriam of Pulse, I have Empire 25 numbers.  They confirm two things:

1. Theater's decided to trigger an OCD anxiety attack (every stadium is a different seat count).
2. Definitely playing like a family movie.  There's an insane amount of tickets sold and available, but the tickets are scattered throughout the 40 showings, which only four sellouts and only seven showings having over 100+ full.  We will see how it picks up later.    The next Empire 25 will probably be next Monday (after the holidays), and then I will go to regular updates until its release.  ETA:  It's exactly what @Porthos is talking about in Sacramento with the number of showings.

 

Hobbs & Shaw
	6.28	7.1	Total	Shows
Lincoln Square	65	82	1318	4
Cinemagic	10	10	1423	9

 

 

Edited July 2, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [11:00pm - 11:10pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	1867	3867	51.72%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day:       1

Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day:         122

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day:            723

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

2.3923x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks at final report.

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: FINAL REPORT

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	6	563	1399	59.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    154

 

====

 

Doing an adjusted comp against Venom 's final report I get 3.86m.

Doing straight comp against Captain Marvel's final report I get 3.92m.

Doing an adjusted comp against Ant-Man and the Wasp's final report I get 4.14m.

Doing a straight comp against Endgame's final report I get 4.50m.

Doing a straight comp against FB2's final numbers for its sneaks*, I get 4.31m.  

* 1.8m according to Deadline.

Let's say 4.3m +/- .3m for midnights.

[Cap]

 

 

 

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

I'm basically going in completely blind, so I don't know if this is good or bad.

It's FUN.  It's how you get insanity like TS4 is gonna make 24M in previews! 

 

 

 

 

40 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

@Porthos (yes I know I should sleep, shut up)

Oh, does he give you that line too?

[Porthos]

Spidey took off tonight.  No near sellouts, but just a massive amount of sales.  Enough to keep up and gain on every last movie I have comps for.  Even though I ain't calling for it, won't be surprised with 5m in midnights. It really will come down to how many showings there are nationwide.

 

I kinda want to call for 4.5m but my comps paint that as being optimistic.  So I'll play it safe and go for 4.3m.  But not having Pulse or that many other folks tracking midnights with comps makes this a bit more difficult.

 

Whatever it is, it'll be good for this era, IMO.

[FlashMaster659]

Spider-Man: Far From Home - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Monday)

 

IMAX 2D

 

12:01 AM - 235/532

 

RealD 3D

 

12:01 AM - 15/211

 

2D

 

12:01 AM - 194/404

12:01 AM - 88/140

 

Total

 

532/1287 (41.3%)

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Spider-Man: Far From Home - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Monday)

 

IMAX 2D

 

12:01 AM - 235/532

 

RealD 3D

 

12:01 AM - 15/211

 

2D

 

12:01 AM - 194/404

12:01 AM - 88/140

 

Total

 

532/1287 (41.3%)

I normally hate this but... Any comps?  Even against CBMs?

[Molek]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

@Porthos (yes I know I should sleep, shut up)

 

So using those multiples...

Pikachu: 26.2

Aladdin: 22.8

KotM: 27.8

Toy Story: 18.3

Fallen Kingdom: 25.8

 

Well...fuck

I'm glad the comps are now converging to a single value. TS4 and especially Pikachu were far apart

 

Edit: saw the comps have changed from days of sales to T- sales so that might explain that. 

Edited July 2, 2019 by Molek

[FlashMaster659]

Just now, Porthos said:

I normally hate this but... Any comps?  Even against CBMs?

Unfortunately I took a look a few hours too late to have a completely accurate comp but Dark Phoenix was at 166 seats mid-day of previews and KOTM was at 489 seats mid-day of previews.

[FlashMaster659]

5 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

Spider-Man: Far From Home - AMC Ontario Mills (Monday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

12:01 AM - 182/203

3:15 AM - 82/203

 

RealD 3D

 

12:30 AM - 44/167

 

2D

 

1:00 AM - 88/217

2:00 AM - 11/167

 

Total

 

407(+61)/957 (42.5%)

 

0.0960x as many seats sold as Avengers: Endgame ~5.5 hours before previews

 

Spider-Man: Far From Home - AMC Ontario Mills (Monday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

12:01 AM - 190/203

3:15 AM - 98/203

 

RealD 3D

 

12:30 AM - 67/167

 

2D

 

1:00 AM - 129/217

2:00 AM - 19/167

 

Total

 

503(+96)/957 (52.6%)

Edited July 2, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[john2000]

anyone now if we will get an official announcement for the midnights ?

[charlie Jatinder]

Opening day pre-sales of Far From Home are roughly double of Homecoming,  Around 20% more than Captain Marvel.

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Opening day pre-sales of Far From Home are roughly double of Homecoming

70M it is 😈   

 

Spoiler

Well, if we ignore 2 years of PS adoptions and Endgame PS loading. But seriously, makes me optimistic for + true OD, maybe 60+ with previews.

 

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Opening day pre-sales of Far From Home are roughly double of Homecoming,  Around 20% more than Captain Marvel.

 

Over $65m OD?

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Over $65m OD?

50 million at least I'd think

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

50 million at least I'd think

with an od of 65( if true) , what six 6 we could be looking at ? ( just a prediction i am not saying that it will happen)

[VanillaSkies]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Over $65m OD?

Not quite. 

Captain Marvel's true Friday was 41.3 million. 20% above that is about 52 million. 

Add in about 3-4 million for midnights, and it's looking like 55-56 million opening day at this point, which is pretty damn solid!

Thing to remember, without massive previews, the OD number is a little deflated, but it will hold better through the week. 

Wednesday is basically a Friday in the US with Thursday being a holiday, so with that OD number 80-90 million in 2 days is within reach. 

125 million 6 day opening they said  

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

70M it is 😈   

I will be careful with that as its Tuesday OD which are pre-sale heavy, but think it's ok to assume $50mn true Tuesday. If playing safe, perhaps $48-50mn.

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I will be careful with that as its Tuesday OD which are pre-sale heavy, but think it's ok to assume $50mn true Tuesday. If playing safe, perhaps $48-50mn.

so around 53-55 with midnights ? that should locke 200 for six day then ?

[cdsacken]

Less walkups on Tuesday. Gimme 50m

[Menor the Destroyer]

33 minutes ago, john2000 said:

so around 53-55 with midnights ? that should locke 200 for six day then ?

220+, if it goes a bit higher today I could see 250