The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Bombay said:

Mortal Kombat Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	16	82	1513	7292	20.75%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 21

Total Seats Added Today: 1,244

Total Sellouts Added Today: 7

Total Seats Sold Today: 319

 

Comp

0.701x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-4 Before Release (6.73M)

Mortal Kombat Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	17	117	1840	10254	17.94%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 35

Total Seats Added Today: 2,962

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 327

 

Comp

0.704x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-3 Before Release (6.75M)

[charlie Jatinder]

Demon Slayer Thursday T-1 Sell Outs

New York - 71/225 (+18/70)

LA - 12/253 (+6/81)

Chicago - 9/73 (+4/38)

Houston - 9/202 (+4/44)
Phoenix - 4/129 (+0/28)
Philadelphia - 11/58 (+3/36)

San Antonio - 2/46 ()
San Diego - 4/68 (+1/1)

Dallas - 5/83 (+1/37)
Boston - 1/46 (+0/9)
Sacramento - 56/69 (+25/4)

New Jersey - 30/181 (+5/95)

 

Total - 205/1433 (+58/443)

 

Good increase in showcount in last 5 days. Sellout increased quite well but coming from NY, Sacramento majorly.

Edited April 21, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

MK increases in last two days are very strong. Quite possibly $7M OD is possible. $20M may be possible. HUGE.

[keysersoze123]

Demon Slayer Thursday 4/22 BO (T-2)

MTC1 - 66981/389847 978288.00 2410 shows(352 Theatres) +8098// 226 sellouts

MTC2 - 70492/349034 975425.42 2786 shows(276 Theatres) +8501

 

Good increase in show counts but its slipping off from GVK. Still overall numbers are close in $ value. I am not changing my projections at this point.  

 

 

On 3/29/2021 at 2:54 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T-2)

MTC1 - 82090/472097 1097985.00 2640 shows(322 theatres) +11935 //144 shows have not sold any tickets and 610  sellouts

MTC2 -  77527/484315 858203.16 3273 shows(293 theatres) +10547 // 290 shows have not sold any tickets and  328 sellouts

 

PWP MTC1 has 903(+61) sellouts while MTC2 has 1608(+66) sellouts.

 

Another solid increase of close to 40% from yesterday. I expected MTC1 to move faster than MTC2 but both of them are keeping pace and so final difference may be only 10K between the two. Average ticket price will keep going down as premium formats have sold out in many places as well. PWP is looking like 1 million OD. 

 

 

 

On 4/19/2021 at 6:58 PM, keysersoze123 said:

 

Demon Slayer (T-3)

MTC1 - 58883/338825 869260.00 1997 shows (322 theatres)  +12445 // 201 sellouts

MTC2 - 61991/304361 861013.10 2327 shows(275 theatres) +10829 // 240 sellouts

 

I did not update yesterday but its definitely slowing down relative to GVK. Especially at MTC1. Good thing is its still slightly ahead in $ value due to higher ticket prices but GVK will overtake there as well as final push wont be that strong. GVK did 395K between the 2 MTC.  I think somewhere between 250-300K would be a good range. I think that will translate to 6.5-7m OD. But this movie would be hard to project as it has a niche. I could still be overestimating it big time. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

@keysersoze123 how many non-reserved theaters in MTC 1 for DS on Day 1 and Day 2.

[PKMLover]

25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Demon Slayer Thursday 4/22 BO (T-2)

MTC1 - 66981/389847 978288.00 2410 shows(352 Theatres) +8098// 226 sellouts

MTC2 - 70492/349034 975425.42 2786 shows(276 Theatres) +8501

 

Good increase in show counts but its slipping off from GVK. Still overall numbers are close in $ value. I am not changing my projections at this point.  

 

 

 

 

Sorry to ask again but you wrote $6.5-7M OD means Thursday night + Friday, right? 

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Sorry to ask again but you wrote $6.5-7M OD means Thursday night + Friday, right? 

No, just for previews! Actual OD from 6.5 previews would have to be at least 11M I’d imagine.

[keysersoze123]

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@keysersoze123 how many non-reserved theaters in MTC 1 for DS on Day 1 and Day 2.

Not that much. I stopped checking few days ago. It was around 250 shows at that time. 

[keysersoze123]

Since I ran my data on a desktop, I was able to get more data that usual. 

 

4/24 Saturday BO

Mortal Kombat 

MTC1 - 29139/675254 373666.00 3544 shows(420 Theatres) 

MTC2 - 29418/527567 347920.26 3488 shows(294 Theatres)

 

Demon Slayer 

MTC1 - 60301/591297 779539.00 3914 shows(398 Theatres) 

MTC2 -  51464/394560 699913.28 3145 shows(275 Theatres)

 

No competition at all. DS > 2x MK on saturday. Also DS saturday PS is not that far off from Friday numbers while MK is way below. Let us see how things go. 

 

Edit: Looking at all 3 Days PS I am thinking 4x thursday BO can happen. Saturday will be lot higher than thursday for sure looking at show counts and PS. 

Edited April 21, 2021 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

22 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

No, just for previews! Actual OD from 6.5 previews would have to be at least 11M I’d imagine.

I am expecting Friday BO to finish > Thursday BO. Way more showtimes and it has another day of PS. Should not be an issue. Also looking at thursday show count it feels like a full day BO rather than just limited previews. Show count is really good and I am expecting 6000+ between 2 MTC by release date. That would be same as GVK OD. of course that was a wednesday when many theatres in MTC1 were closed. 

[charlie Jatinder]

This is a very weird/unusual sight in which I am the one on lower side and @keysersoze123 is on higher 😛

[charlie Jatinder]

I will guess weekend as

Day - DS | MK

 

Thu - 5.5 |

Fri - 5 | 7
Sat - 6 | 8.5
Sun - 3.5 | 4.5

Total - 20 | 20

 

Edited April 21, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I will guess weekend as

Day - DS | MK

 

Thu - 5.5 |

Fri - 5 | 7
Sat - 6 | 8.5
Sun - 3.5 | 4.5

Total - 20 | 20

 

How on earth are you predicting MK sat > DS Sat when DS PS is > 2x MK PS. Plus show counts are not that far off though MK has big advantage with seat counts in MTC2 but MTC1 is quite close. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

How on earth are you predicting MK sat > DS Sat when DS PS is > 2x MK PS. Plus show counts are not that far off though MK has big advantage with seat counts in MTC2 but MTC1 is quite close. 

I wasn't looking at Sat PS and just general 10-20% jump on Friday for a Hollywood general movie. 

DS is fan driven niche property having a lot of spillover from Friday in pre-sales. Generally Indian films pre-sales are higher than many medium Hollywood films at start of day, but as day proceeds, Hollywood films move ahead. IIRC Baahubali 2 weekend pre-sales were ahead of Fate of the Furious 2nd weekend.

[Joyous Legion]

Can I just say, amazing to have a weekend battle again.   
 

Loking forward to the 2nd weekend battle as well 👀

[charlie Jatinder]

Top Foreign openers in North America

1. Hero - $18.25M
2. Dragon Ball Super: Broly - $15.4M (Best 3 days in 5 days weekend of $20.3M)
3. Baahubali 2 - $11M
4. Fearless - $10.57M
5. Yu-Gi-Oh - $9.5M

Don't think I miss any. 

[Joyous Legion]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Top Foreign openers in North America

1. Hero - $18.25M
2. Dragon Ball Super: Broly - $15.4M (Best 3 days in 5 days weekend of $20.3M)
3. Baahubali 2 - $11M
4. Fearless - $10.57M
5. Yu-Gi-Oh - $9.5M

Don't think I miss any. 

Pokémon 1998 31M 3-day, 32.8M best 3 of 5 days.  
 

Then the sequel (Pokemon 2000) did 19.57 off a Fri opening. 
 

Pretty insane stuff adjusted.

Edited April 21, 2021 by WandaLegion

[PKMLover]

22 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Can I just say, amazing to have a weekend battle again.   
 

Loking forward to the 2nd weekend battle as well 👀

Don't know if North America can pull a 2x legs for DS movie. Looking at all the markets where it has been already released, all have at least 2x legs ( Japan and Korea > 9x legs, Taiwan > 5x legs, Australia and New Zealand already around 2x legs without the dub version, the dub version will be released there too on this weekend). 

Edited April 21, 2021 by PKMLover

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I wasn't looking at Sat PS and just general 10-20% jump on Friday for a Hollywood general movie. 

DS is fan driven niche property having a lot of spillover from Friday in pre-sales. Generally Indian films pre-sales are higher than many medium Hollywood films at start of day, but as day proceeds, Hollywood films move ahead. IIRC Baahubali 2 weekend pre-sales were ahead of Fate of the Furious 2nd weekend.

Release is not like a niche film at all. If you consider thursday as previews then the show numbers are at big movies level. Even Saturday show numbers look very impressive. As I said looking at PS there is no way MK is going to outgross DS on saturday. In fact looking at friday show count and ticket price difference I am expecting DS to win friday as well. We will know with increased PS tomorrow as there is way more capacity for DS to sell. 

 

I have never seen a non hollywood movie open so big. How big were Hero or Broly releases?

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Not that much. I stopped checking few days ago. It was around 250 shows at that time. 

Ok. Thursday only about 200 shows more but on friday there is 650 non reserved shows for DS. So its non trivial but main BO will be from reserved shows for any movie.