The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

NOT SO QUICK, MUCH LESS DIRTY, MINI UPDATE FOR GREATER SACRAMENTO AREA:

 

10685/24528 (43.53% sold)

 

2nd half of 2019: 10176/23492 (the TROS equivalent - more or less [a new theater replaced an old one making old comps somewhat suspect)

1st half of 2019:    9722/22449 (the Endgame equivalent - more or less [a new theater came online just at the end of Endgame's pre-sales)

 

===

 

Passed 10k tickets sold in the region.  TROS's first day was 8.3k (though that was two months out).  Endgame's first day was 15k, though that doesn't include a new theater and the swapped one.

 

Also, right about this time is when I mention, once again, that Sacto has been running ahead of its pre-2020 comps even when I adjust for new sources of tracking, so those equivalents could be off by as much as 10% to 15%. 

I think even a T-x TROS comp will be giving low 30s...even with 1 day of PS vs like 40. As you note there is overperformance but it has plenty of time to get that comp higher. 

Edited November 29, 2021 by Menor

[Legion Again]

I agree with keyser — the endgame comp is better than TROS 👀

[Legion Again]

10 hours ago, Eternal Legion said:

First 24 hrs clearly gonna demolish 10M at this point. Can’t see how to miss 30M previews

Oh yeah.   
 

wide range is wide, but thinking 32-44ish

[keysersoze123]

its ahead of SW9 and its not as if SW9 was backloaded and so 40m+ previews should happen looking at ticket price increase as well. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

its ahead of SW9 and its not as if SW9 was backloaded and so 40m+ previews should happen looking at ticket price increase as well. 

 

No, but TROS did have 58 days of pre-sales to NWH's 18.  Just something to keep in mind.

 

(at T-17, TROS would locally be at 13.6k tickets sold, again with different sources of tracking)

[Legion Again]

Should target passing the TROS comp by t-15 vs t-15. I guess I’m not really sure why that would lead to sub 40 either. Just call it my general mcu cautiousness 

Edited November 29, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

No, but TROS did have 58 days of pre-sales to NWH's 18.  Just something to keep in mind.

 

(at T-17, TROS would locally be at 13.6k tickets sold, again with different sources of tracking)

It's close enough to that though (after just one day) that I'd expect it to overtake. Of course we haven't had any presales anywhere close to this level post-COVID, so a lot of uncertainty here. But in 2019 I would have expected >40 from this start for sure. 

Edited November 29, 2021 by Menor

[Legion Again]

Can get more refined est once scrapers are working again, but I’d guess ATP vs TROS/Endgame is +10% or so. That’s pretty significant.

Edited November 29, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[Inceptionzq]

6 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1455

2487

58.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1006

1947

51.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 11 HRS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6470	6470	22831	28.34%	15	129

 

AMCs sold	4166
Cinemarks sold	1122
Regals sold	717
Harkins sold	465

 

Eternals final comp: 13.81M

NTTD final comp: 13.74M

Shang-Chi final comp: 14.11M

Black Widow final comp: 13.42M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 16.28M

 

Adjusted TRoS 17 hours comp: 35.84M

 

Obviously pre-pandemic comps aren't gonna be perfect, but I still think TRoS comp is very worth having on here. There is a glaring disparity between the final RoS comp and the final pandemic comps. Plus, the difference in presale length is gonna make it hard for the normal comp until we get closer though. But again, still worth having on IMO. These numbers are stellar and what I truly live for with tracking.

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1799

2487

72.34%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1286

2295

56.03%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST ~7 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8610	2140	23179	37.15%	15	130

 

AMCs sold	5199
Cinemarks sold	1541
Regals sold	1203
Harkins sold	667

 

Eternals final comp: 18.37M

NTTD final comp: 18.28M

Shang-Chi final comp: 18.78M

Black Widow final comp: 17.86M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 21.29M

 

Adjusted TRoS 17 hours comp: 46.88M

 

Not much to say... amazing numbers

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1799

2487

72.34%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1286

2295

56.03%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST ~7 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8610	2140	23179	37.15%	15	130

 

AMCs sold	5199
Cinemarks sold	1541
Regals sold	1203
Harkins sold	667

 

Eternals final comp: 18.37M

NTTD final comp: 18.28M

Shang-Chi final comp: 18.78M

Black Widow final comp: 17.86M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 21.29M

 

Adjusted TRoS 17 hours comp: 46.88M

 

Not much to say... amazing numbers

Out of curiosity, do you have a T-17 comp for TROS?

[Inceptionzq]

6 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex(11 hours of sales)

 

T-17 days Thursday(90 showings): 9703(+3090)/25602 in 14 theaters

 

Eternals final comp: 19.04M

NTTD final comp: 15.03M

Shang-Chi final comp: 20.07M

Black Widow final comp: 15.47M

 

T-18 days Friday(120 showings): 4990(+2118)/33296 in 14 theaters

 

Eternals final comp: 20.26M

NTTD final comp: 11.50M

Shang-Chi final comp: 24.55M

Black Widow final comp: 14.13M

 

T-19 days Saturday(129 showings): 1706(+872)/36246 in 15 theaters

 

Eternals final comp: 9.07M

NTTD final comp: 4.80M

 

T-20 days Sunday(122 showings): 325(+166)/35375 in 13 theaters

 

The underperformances of SC and Eternals are quite obvious here. Numbers are still insane though, thousands of tickets sold in about 8 hours and it's still kinda early.

No Way Home Megaplex(~18 hours of sales)

 

T-17 days Thursday(131 showings): 12696(+2993)/33025(+7423) in 15 theaters

 

Eternals final comp: 24.91M

NTTD final comp: 19.67M

Shang-Chi final comp: 26.26M

Black Widow final comp: 20.24M

 

T-18 days Friday(153 showings): 7740(+2750)/44864(+11568) in 15 theaters

 

Eternals final comp: 31.42M

NTTD final comp: 17.84M

Shang-Chi final comp: 38.08M

Black Widow final comp: 21.92M

 

T-19 days Saturday(156 showings): 2905(+1199)/43692(+7446) in 15 theaters

 

Eternals final comp: 15.44M

NTTD final comp: 8.17M

 

T-20 days Sunday(136 showings): 563(+238)/40681(+5306) in 15 theaters

[Legion Again]

Big growth from 11 hrs to 18! 24 will beat everything but aeg and tfa at this point I think. 

[Inceptionzq]

6 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse(11 hours of sales)

 

T-17 days Thursday(232 showings): 13922(+7016)/30658(+1628)

 

Eternals final comp: 13.17M

 

T-18 days Friday(292 showings): 8502(+5462)/39498(+1922)

 

Eternals final comp: 13.84M

 

T-19 days Saturday(323 showings): 5205(+3863)/43374(+1801)

 

Eternals final comp: 8.42M

 

T-20 days Sunday(274 showings): 1794(+1391)/36938(+1158)

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse(~18 hours of sales)

 

T-17 days Thursday(244 showings): 19049(+5127)/32149(+1491)

 

Eternals final comp: 18.02M

 

T-18 days Friday(305 showings): 13426(+4924)/41049(+1551)

 

Eternals final comp: 21.85M

 

T-19 days Saturday(338 showings): 9798(+4593)/45263(+1889)

 

Eternals final comp: 15.84M

 

T-20 days Sunday(285 showings): 3851(+2057)/38205(+1267)

[Inceptionzq]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Out of curiosity, do you have a T-17 comp for TROS?

34.04M

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Big growth from 11 hrs to 18! 24 will beat everything but aeg and tfa at this point I think. 

Wouldn't be surprised if that's already done nationwide. TROS is definitely in the dust. Don't think TLJ was that much bigger than TROS. 

[XXR vs XXR]

I’m glad presales have shown the justification of our enthusiasm/hype for this box office run, and that our lofty goals ($200m OW, $100m OD, Avengers+ DOM) were not only possible but under 20/20 hindsight, indeed probable.

[Legion Again]

Hoping 24 beats TFA. Wouldn’t be especially meaningful with 6 year diff but a fun little PR blast/trivium.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

I’m glad presales have shown the justification of our enthusiasm/hype for this box office run, and that our lofty goals ($200m OW, $100m OD, Avengers+ DOM) were not only possible but under 20/20 hindsight, indeed probable.

Cart, horse, chicken, eggs etc 

 

But yeah, mostly agree

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Eternal Legion said:

Cart, horse, chicken, eggs etc 

 

But yeah, mostly agree

Yea I mean it could still fail on those fronts with an Eternals like reception, but the presales prove the hype was justified and if it follows a “normal” path (85+ critics RT, 90+ audience RT, A- or higher Cinemascore), it’ll reach those targets. 
 

[Inceptionzq]

Don't think this was mentioned, but it looks like Regal is raising ticket prices by $1 in time for NWH. Anyone else with Regals seeing the same?