The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MikeQ]

5 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Ontario is being overreactive. The risk can be significantly mitigated by both only vaccinated entry and masks mandate but the authority still demand theaters to sacrifice half of their business during the most lucrative season of the year. 

 

Fair enough. I think the province is trying to be proactive so as to prevent real trouble in January/February - in turn to avoid a shift to online learning, remote work, etc, etc, which people (and parents) really don't want to go back to. Understandably so, because it really impacts work and family life. Densely packed indoor spaces (where people take off their masks to eat) are easy ways to spread the virus. The institution at which I teach has moved the remainder of December exams online for this very reason - to be proactive more than anything, to help protect the Winter term.

 

I understand the frustration, though. It's tough, for everyone. In any event, I think the impact of No Way Home's box office will be minimal, so I'm not concerned in this respect. Bring on the bonanza weekend!

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by MikeQ

[ZackM]

Spider-Man: No Way Home Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	133	302	696	54	29
Seats Added	7,524	26,793	66,894	4,756	6,725
Seats Sold	81,107	53,296	47,473	24,773	17,519
12/15/2021	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	433	9,186	843,821	1,359,814	62.05%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	121	1,231	2,638	4,243	5,769
ATP
$14.27

 

 

This is my final presales count.  I'll be posting running updates for total sold as the evening progresses.

[Joyous Legion]

Just woke up. On my way to see a 3:30 imax. Almost don’t wanna go because I will miss 3 hrs of this thread  👀

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Just woke up. On my way to see a 3:30 imax. Almost don’t wanna go because I will miss 3 hrs of this thread  👀

 

Don't go. Buy a ticket for later tonight but also keep you 330 IMAX since we need the money! 

 

[fabiopazzo2]

5 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Just woke up. On my way to see a 3:30 imax. Almost don’t wanna go because I will miss 3 hrs of this thread  👀

Go NOW

[infamous5445]

50M previews is over the Force Awakens isn't it? Will be insane if NWH can beat that

[AndreasTheSecond]

7 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

50M previews is over the Force Awakens isn't it? Will be insane if NWH can beat that

I think TFA made 57M

[Torontofan]

Ontario sat sales will start friday morning.

 

Demand is huge for the film even with this confusion and restrictions.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Torontofan

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Quick update on few big multiplexes in NYC for Spidey previews. @Cap may have Endgame data to share for at least empire and lincoln. 

 

Empire 25 - 8026/12016 157207.94 65 shows

Lincoln Sq - 5699/6595 123527.81 22 shows !!!

AMC 34th st - 2404/3287 50059.96 31 shows

AMC 19th st - 809/1009 14108.81 9 shows

AMC 84th st - 1273/1355 27093.27 8 shows

Kips bay - 3090/3903 64101.30 34 shows

AMC Magic Johnson Harlem - 1735/3702 26803.65 16 shows

AMC Newport 11 -2173/2252 34883.37 22 shows

AMC Orpheum 7 - 1918/2654 31365.22 10 shows

AMC Village 7 - 1059/1092 19424.51 12 shows

 

 

AEG  (Thur) (3pm)

 

Empire 25 - 48   (10 sold out/ 10 almost sold out (less than 2 rows unsold including wheelchair seats)

Lincoln Sq - 26   (3/6)

AMC 34th st - 20  (8/2)

AMC 19th st - 13    (8/3)

AMC 84th st - 13  (7/1)

Kips bay - 28  (15/5)

AMC Magic Johnson Harlem - 17  (12)

AMC Newport 11 -  25   (20/ 3)

AMC Orpheum 7 -  10 (9)

AMC Village 7 -  15 (10 almost SO)

 

Total: 195 shows  v SM's  229

[keysersoze123]

While we lost MTC2(probably for good :-() I was at least able to get showcount for previews and OD

 

I ran this around noon PST and so shows earlier would not have been there. It impacts movies other than Spidey. I think @katnisscinnaplex will have full numbers tomorrow. 

 

MTC2 12/16

Spidey -7667

Rest - 3942

MTC2 12/17

Spidey - 7710

Rest -7139

 

At MTC1 as well, Spidey showcount for friday is still slightly below today. Take that into account how much true friday can be relative to previews today.    

[XXR & Friends]

16 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

50M previews is over the Force Awakens isn't it? Will be insane if NWH can beat that

 

9 minutes ago, AndreasTheSecond said:

I think TFA made 57M

 

Reported number is $57M but the "true" number is $53-54M according to @charlie Jatinder

[KP1025]

2 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

 

Reported number is $57M but the "true" number is $53-54M according to @charlie Jatinder

 

I wonder why they exaggerated the Thursday number. TFA had already comfortably taken the previews record from DH2, so it didn't stand to gain anything. And for rounding reasons, even $55 million would look more neat than a random number like $57 million. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Bruh. I guess fandango share of SC and V2 must be low . 

In full run films get walkins as well 

[Joyous Legion]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In full run films get walkins as well 

Of course, but NWH ps gross was like ~100M below SC final run when they tweeted that. Plenty of days 4+ is still through fandango.

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-0	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	189	25,181	9,834	1,208	39.05%
		Phoenix	7	174	21,989	12,532	1,086	56.99%
		Raleigh	8	120	12,627	8,676	855	68.71%
	Spider-Man Total		22	483	59,797	31,042	3,149	51.91%

 

Hit pretty much right on expected number based on forecast from comp increases.  If I'm able to run a T-1 hour update I'd expect sales to finish around 35,700.   I'm guessing that all show times have been posted at this time, but I didn't really expect to see any this morning either.  With 51.9% of seats filled, there is a ton of room for walkups today.

 

T-0 increase % comps

 

Spider - 11.29%

BW - 23.9%

SC - 22.99%

Eternals - 21.33%

 

Quick check-in on T-0 sales comps...

 

BW  - 5.36x (70.76m)

SC -  10.31x (90.69m)

Eternals - 7.49x (71.13m)

 

Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 4.22x (55.66m)

SC -  7.57x (66.64m)

Eternals - 5.78x (54.9m)

 

Average projected forecast = 

  Reveal hidden contents

66.2m

 

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $402,228 (12.96 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	26,850	86.55%	$357,856.14	13.33
	Y	4,174	13.45%	$44,147.99	10.58

 

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	9,301	29.98%	$150,534.88	16.18
	Standard	21,723	70.02%	$251,469.25	11.58

 

 

Movie	Chain	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	AMC	17,483	56.35%	$217,701.37	12.45
	Cinemark	7,448	24.01%	$106,199.16	14.26
	CMX	32	0.10%	$479.68	14.99
	Regal	5,268	16.98%	$69,233.09	13.14
	RoadHouse	535	1.72%	$5,617.33	10.50
	Sun-Ray	258	0.83%	$2,773.50	10.75

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Late	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	197	25,642	11,430	1,596	44.58%
		Phoenix	7	184	22,639	13,677	1,145	60.41%
		Raleigh	8	128	13,133	9,574	898	72.90%
	Spider-Man Total		22	509	61,414	34,681	3,639	56.47%

 

Didn't quite hit the target number, but still very impressive final day.  26 shows were added in the last 10ish hours and most of them have sold really well.  If they continue to pop up tonight I could see people jumping in them to get better seats than what's available now. 

 

T-1 hour increase % comps

 

Spider - 11.72%

BW - 27.13%

SC - 36.09%

Eternals - 29.57%

 

T-1 hour sales comps

 

BW  - 4.71x (62.18m)

SC -  8.46x (74.45m)

Eternals - 6.456x (61.33m)

 

If we throw out SC (which I should have done a long time ago with its inflated holiday OW), the others are converging nicely around 61.7m

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $446,871 (12.88 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

It stayed ahead of BW ATP!  As the night goes on, that will only increase.

 

Splits

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	30,051	86.71%	$398,130.12	13.25
	Y	4,605	13.29%	$48,399.11	10.51

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	9,946	28.70%	$161,004.08	16.19
	Standard	24,710	71.30%	$285,525.15	11.56

 

Movie	Chain	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	AMC	19,327	55.77%	$238,319.09	12.33
	Cinemark	8,207	23.68%	$116,644.20	14.21
	CMX	78	0.23%	$1,169.22	14.99
	Regal	6,233	17.99%	$81,812.39	13.13
	RoadHouse	538	1.55%	$5,649.58	10.50
	Sun-Ray	273	0.79%	$2,934.75	10.75

[XXR & Friends]

3 hours ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home Current Number, 24 Screen Theater, 230PM - December 16, 2021

3PM - 5:55PM Shows
14 show times, 1040 tickets sold 
2 private screenings sold (80 tickets equivalent)
 

Comparisons to Final Ticket Sales Tracked

Endgame — 50 show times, 3623 tickets sold 

Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold 
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold 

The Rise or Skywalker — 44 show times, 1826 tickets sold 


Comps to Final Previews
EG = $M or $M with private screenings
CM = $M or $M with private screenings
IW = $M or $M with private screenings 
TROS = $M or $M with private screenings 

 

 

Notes: Update 1 of 2. This covers shows from 3PM - 5:55PM. I will do another update at 5:30PM to cover 6PM and onward. Total shows as of 230PM is up to 58! I will not be updating my comp numbers during this round (because they wouldn't make sense). 

 

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home Current Number, 24 Screen Theater, 530PM - December 16, 2021

3PM - 5:55PM Shows
14 show times, 1040 tickets sold 
2 private screenings sold (80 tickets equivalent)

6PM+ Shows
44 show times, 2505 tickets sold 
2 private screenings sold (80 tickets equivalent)

 

TOTAL
58 show times, 3545 tickets sold 
4 private screenings sold (160 tickets equivalent)

 

Comparisons to Final Ticket Sales Tracked

Endgame — 50 show times, 3623 tickets sold 

Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold 
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold 

The Rise or Skywalker — 44 show times, 1826 tickets sold 


Comps to Final Previews
EG = $58.71M or $61.36M with private screenings
CM = $64.37M or $67.28M with private screenings
IW = $56.45M or $59.00M with private screenings 
TROS = $77.66M or $81.16M with private screenings 

 

 

Notes: Final update and thoughts. We definitely hit a record with 58 show times as of final tracking (or 62 if you include private screenings). There is considerable more room for walkups compared to Endgame. I know 2021 has over indexed compared to 2019 by upwards of 20% sometimes; but I think the scale of these numbers make that harder. I'm looking squarely at my Endgame comp and to a lesser extent my Infinity War comp. For the sake of not being too bullheaded about over indexing, I'm gonna go with a final previews prediction of....
 

$54 MILLION 
 

Edited December 16, 2021 by GoblinXXR

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

I wonder why they exaggerated the Thursday number. TFA had already comfortably taken the previews record from DH2, so it didn't stand to gain anything. And for rounding reasons, even $55 million would look more neat than a random number like $57 million. 

Because sometime data gets mixed. Besides the actual data is 119M OD. 53-54 THU + 65-66M True Friday.

 

I came to numbers

 

1. Checking the available data on various chains for previews.

2. True Friday numbers felt higher than $62M that was "reported"

3. I checked the projections during TFA by RTH & Deadline. Both of them thought 65M true friday, for 122M OD but DISNEY gave 119. Next day they went against their gut considering FRI DIS reported under what they were thinking 65M for FRI, and undershot SAT by a few millions.

 

That confirmed by doubts, as I know what numbers we see and how to project. I would have done same thing in that condition, though may be I would have gone deeper that night itself.

[infamous5445]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-spider-man-no-way-home-remains-on-course-for-historic-debut-despite-renewed-pandemic-concerns/

 

A prediction of 224M OW from BOP

[charlie Jatinder]

For funsies i do want to see 53-57 but high 40s seems like it so far. 

[Movies4Life]

19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

For funsies i do want to see 53-57 but high 40s seems like it so far. 

I'm gonna say $50M previews is where I land. No more, no less.