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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Good for Cap Marvel. $150mn seems locked and I feel it's gonna be around $165mn Approx.

Thanks @Deep Wang

I won't quite say "locked" for 150 OW, as it could still flatline, comparatively, in the run up to release.  And if CM "only" gets 19m on Thr, then it might still be a near thing, as @TalismanRing showed.  Maybe in the 75% confidence interval range right now?  With that confidence interval changing as more days go by.

 

Any thoughts on the odds here TalismanRing?

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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

How was Ant-Man and The Wasp around the same time. That shall give better look as well, getting the lowest and bigger MCU solo opener in recent times.

I couldn’t find any Wang numbers for AM&TW, not sure if it was enough of an event :ph34r:   

 

I did find some Solo numbers while I was poking around, which are spoiler tagged to spare Porthos.    

 

Spoiler

6.2M on... release day

 

Edited by Thanos Legion
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
Just now, Thanos Legion said:

I couldn’t find any Wang numbers for AM&TW, not sure if it was enough of an event :ph34r:   

 

I did find some Solo numbers, which are spoiler tagged to spare Porthos.    

 

  Hide contents

6.2M on... release day

 

You don't need to spare me; scar tissue has been healing nicely. :ph34r:

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LeoC Indie Sensation

LeoC

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I couldn’t find any Wang numbers for AM&TW, not sure if it was enough of an event :ph34r:   

 

I did find some Solo numbers while I was poking around, which are spoiler tagged to spare Porthos.    

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Glad to know that CM is not the next Solo or MPR, as some might have expected it to be.

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I won't quite say "locked" for 150 OW, as it could still flatline, comparatively, in the run up to release.  And if CM "only" gets 19m on Thr, then it might still be a near thing, as @TalismanRing showed.  Maybe in the 75% confidence interval range right now?  With that confidence interval changing as more days go by.

 

Any thoughts on the odds here TalismanRing?

That $19mn Thursday seems like is sure to happen. That would be boding into $165mn weekend (65 55 45).

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I couldn’t find any Wang numbers for AM&TW, not sure if it was enough of an event :ph34r:   

 

I did find some Solo numbers while I was poking around, which are spoiler tagged to spare Porthos.    

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

I don't know how to take Solo number but that sounds horrible to me considering its Star Wars film but then it opened to $80mn something only. So yeah.

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ZeeSoh Blockbuster

ZeeSoh

Posted
Posted
On 2/13/2019 at 4:35 AM, Deep Wang said:

0rS6vFY.png

 

Deep wang posted this table earlier this month. According to the table CM has already surpassed Thor Ragnarok and SMH totals 1 day out. 

 

The table also shows that CM is running ahead of BATB 7 days out. 

 

Also CM did about 2 million in PS in the last 16 days as per Deep Wangs update. 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

116

8209

12893

36.33%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        9 [all added showings were from non-reserved seating theaters]

Total Seats Added Today:           n/a

Total Seats Sold Today:              190

 

1.1512x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 7 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

.47816x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 7 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.2540x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 7 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.1158x as many tickets sold as Solo 7 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

2.0999x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 7 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

1.9833x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 7 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

Day T-7 Comp:

 

BP:            178 tickets sold [4 sellouts/73 showings    |    3969/7601 seats left  | 47.78% sold]

IW:            359 tickets sold [5 sellouts/136 showings |   4380/13124 seats left  | 66.63% sold]

DP2:          119 tickets sold [0 sellouts/121 showings |  10133/13467 seats left | 24.76% sold]

Solo:         112 tickets sold [1 sellout/92 showings     |   6399/10146 seats left  | 36.93% sold]

JW2:          122 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   9272/11263 seats left  | 17.68% sold]

FB2:          123 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings  |  11165/13377 seats left  | 16.54% sold]

CM (adj)*: 156 tickets sold [0 sellouts/116 showings |   7247/11428 seats left   | 36.59% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

110

6737

10450

35.53%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        9 [all added showings were from non-reserved seating theaters]

Total Seats Added Today:           n/a

Total Seats Sold Today:              137

 

1.0223x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 7 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

1167

7247

11428

36.59%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        9 [all added showings were from non-reserved seating theaters]

Total Seats Added Today:           n/a

Total Seats Sold Today:              156

 

1.1512x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 7 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

Edited by Porthos
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, JB33 said:

So to sum up:

 

@Porthos is a little more conservative, thinking even $150M isn't guaranteed.

After Solo I'm REALLY hesitant to use the word 'guaranteed'. :lol:

 

*insert HAHA......  I just made myself sad gif: HERE*

 

====

 

I mean, I think it'll do more than 150.  Heck, I think it'll probably hit 160.  But 'lock'?  Nah.  Not yet, at least. :)

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

After Solo I'm REALLY hesitant to use the word 'guaranteed'. :lol:

 

*insert HAHA......  I just made myself sad gif: HERE*

 

====

 

I mean, I think it'll do more than 150.  Heck, I think it'll probably hit 160.  But 'lock'?  Nah.  Not yet, at least. :)

So what did you "guaranteed" for Solo. Just wanna know.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

So what did you "guaranteed" for Solo. Just wanna know.

Before the last week of presales, I thought the ABSOLUTE SKY IS FALLING floor was 115 or so.  I couldn't even conceive of a sub-100 OW.

 

As the numbers rolled in the last few days of pre-sales I irrationally hoped that folks would show up during the OW as WOM spread.

 

It... didn't turn out that way. 😬

 

EDITED:::
 

As I think about it, in that last week of pre-sales, I thought to myself that if it did do lower than 100 OW I wouldn't even read the Weekend Thread, never mind post in it. So I guess that by a couple of days before release, I started to really fear a sub-100 OW.  But even then it was more of a dread than something I thought would happen.

 

Turns out it didn't even come close to that. :(

Edited by Porthos
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Before the last week of presales, I thought the ABSOLUTE SKY IS FALLING floor was 115 or so.  I couldn't even conceive of a sub-100 OW.

 

As the numbers rolled in the last few days of pre-sales I irrationally hoped that folks would show up during the OW as WOM spread.

 

It... didn't turn out that way. 😬

 

@Charlie Jatinder

 

Spoiler

Just kidding. ;) :)

 

...

 

Mostly. :ph34r:

Edited by Porthos
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Just so I don't get misunderstood, @Charlie Jatinder, I WAS kidding when I posted that Princess Bride clip. Wanted to throw a little levity and a touch of self-mocking about the whole thing. :)

 

I really don't mind analyzing the Solo numbers, as it is what it is.

 

Re-examining my thoughts and feelings about Solo 's performance as it was all happening at the time?  Okay, that maybe not so much. ;)

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