Weekend Actuals: 36.2 M ALIEN: COVENANT | 34.7 M GOTG II | 11.7 M EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING

[filmlover]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

I really don't know where DM3 is going to end up domestically. It doesn't feel like we're getting bombarded with tie-ins like Minions or SLOP (thank god).

I think it'll go back down to a similar gross to the first movie. The weak-ish reception for Minions will hurt.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

I think it'll go back down to a similar gross to the first movie. The weak-ish reception for Minions will hurt.

I don't think it's going that low, but I don't think it's hitting 300M anymore. Maybe 270M?

[John Marston]

Spidey won't do as good as some think. Less than 300m for that definitely

 

WW will do good but also don't think it will explode or anything. Something like 225-230m

[CJohn]

DM3 is gonna drop. I expect 260-280M DOM.

[WrathOfHan]

Nothing would warm my heart more than DM3 grossing around or lower than the first  

[Subzero]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I tend to agree. My top five of the year goes SW, BATB, GOTG, WW, and then either Thor or DM3 (with Justice League and Spidey the next couple out). 

For me it's ... SW, BATB, JL , GOTG, WW, THOR3 .... if WW does great, ,then I think JL will benefit greatly ..thefore I think it will hit $1B.

[That One Girl]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

http://digitalcinema.bydeluxe.com/site/dlxportal/docs/POTC5_US_Interop.pdf

 

Very nice, POTC is just under 2 hours without credits. Disney's trailer attachments are Cars and Last Jedi.

 

http://digitalcinema.bydeluxe.com/site/dlxportal/docs/Baywatch_US_Interop.pdf

 

I'm sure An Inconvenient Sequel will go over well with dudebros  

 

Yeah, but Paramount only has three trailers out for upcoming movies (including Baywatch), so they kinda have to.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

So, you see spidey, WW, DM3 doing more than 370. That will make this summer great.

 

Pre-summer, I saw GOTG hitting its original # on the nose (so $330s)...I saw Wonder Woman getting JUST past that...DM3 between $350-$375M (hitting #2 on the nose) and Spidey topping $375M with a shot at $400M...

 

Now, I then had a big drop to my #5...I saw Baywatch with $200M possibility taking that spot as the summer comedy choice...and I'm gonna be wrong without a miracle...so I wasn't perfect on my summer picks (but I didn't have Snatched, Arthur, or Aliens in it, so I wasn't all bad:)...

 

I'm gonna be a little low on GOTG 2, so I'm hoping everything plays the same just with a different starting point:)...

Edited May 20, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Subzero]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Spidey won't do as good as some think. Less than 300m for that definitely

 

WW will do good but also don't think it will explode or anything. Something like 225-230m

Agree regards to Spidey, although I think WW will surprise.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, That One Valerian said:

 

Yeah, but Paramount only has three trailers out for upcoming movies (including Baywatch), so they kinda have to.

It's definitely not a bad move by Paramount, but there's very little audience overlap there.

[JennaJ]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Right, flip Spidey to the top, and GOTG to #4...and that's the summer order:)...(at least I said it was end of April, and I'm still sticking to it:)...

 

DM3 is not doing more than GOTG, WW I'm also doubtful about, it would have to have like 95% RT and crazy WOM.

Spidey I'd agree on it it wasn't the 7th Spider-Man appearance on film in the last 15 years. Really doesn't feel fresh anymore.

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm sure An Inconvenient Sequel will go over well with dudebros  

I'm sure plenty of said dudebros will walk out when they find out (apparently) none of the nudity in the movie is provided by the actresses.

[WrathOfHan]

I am curious how wide An Inconvenient Sequel is going to go. The trailer heavily features Trump, and I feel like it's a relevant documentary in our current political climate. It's releasing at the end of July when the market starts becoming barren too. I won't be surprised with a 10/40+ type run.

[John Marston]

I think these are realistic predictions for the superhero films this year

 

 

Wonder Woman - 85m opening weekend/225m finish. 575m worldwide

 

Spider-Man - 105m opening weekend/275m finish. 845m worldwide

 

 

Thor - 95m opening weekend/ 245m finish. 795m worldwide

 

Justice League -170m opening weekend/350m finish (think Thanksgiving will give it better legs than BvS) 930m worldwide

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, JennaJ said:

 

DM3 is not doing more than GOTG, WW I'm also doubtful about, it would have to have like 95% RT and crazy WOM.

Spidey I'd agree on it it wasn't the 7th Spider-Man appearance on film in the last 15 years. Really doesn't feel fresh anymore.

There will be an animated breaking that top 4...with boys who watch the dang DM3 preview every day, and knowing they brought something new and cute to the movie series (with the brother), I'm not gonna underestimate it.  

[John Marston]

also there is Cars 3. I think if it gets good reviews (not impossible considering Bob Petersen, who wrote many of the well received Pixar films, looks to be assisting with the script) it can get over 200m. Disney is promoting it pretty well 

[filmlover]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

I am curious how wide An Inconvenient Sequel is going to go. The trailer heavily features Trump, and I feel like it's a relevant documentary in our current political climate. It's releasing at the end of July when the market starts becoming barren too. I won't be surprised with a 10/40+ type run.

Some guy booed when Trump appeared when I saw the trailer for An Inconvenient Truth before a movie recently. I'd love to see that trailer with a packed audience now after everything that's come out (and continues to come out) over the past week.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Some guy booed when Trump appeared when I saw the trailer for An Inconvenient Truth before a movie recently. I'd love to see that trailer with a packed audience now after everything that's come out (and continues to come out) over the past week.

An old lady booed him when I saw Gifted  

[The Panda]

Baywatch looks like its gaining a lot of interest, I could see a 5-day opening 50m+ (so 30-40m 3-Day).

 

I'm also being bullish on Pirates and thinking 90-110m OW for it.  It looks better than Stranger Tides and there seems to be some renewed interest.

[a2k]

28 minutes ago, John Marston said:

also there is Cars 3. I think if it gets good reviews (not impossible considering Bob Petersen, who wrote many of the well received Pixar films, looks to be assisting with the script) it can get over 200m. Disney is promoting it pretty well 

 

i think a sequel pays for or reaps the reward of it's predecessor's quality in the ow.

barring rare scenarios, like im2's mixed wom not affecting im3 due to ta-bump, you got to pay for your past

irrespective of cars 3's legs and wom, it's ow gonna take a hit due to cars 2's quality imo.

 

thinking 50 ow. 200+ would then need 4x like inside out (3.96x)

 

if cars3 opens to 55, it still needs 3.6x+ for 200. even as an original film, secret-life-of-pets did 3.6x.

boss baby is looking at "only" 3.4x, again as an original film.

so can't see cars 3 above 3.4x. it would need to open to 60 or more for 200, and be a very good film.

possible but 60 ow seems tough, so does 3.25x+.

 

[cars 1 also did 4x back in the day but as an original film and before thu previews became a thing]

 

Edited May 20, 2017 by a2knet