What a WONDERful Weekend | WW down only 16% on Sunday. 103M weekend. pg 226

[Brainiac5]

2 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Superhero "fatigue" is indeed happening in the sense that the ceiling may very well be lower than it was 6-8 years ago. I doubt a film ever sells as many tickets domestically as THE DARK KNIGHT did (which was a much larger number than 3D boosted Avengers). That said, the floor seems to have picked up for them quite a bit/

 

Regardless of pathetic reviews, a 2016 Batman movie featuring Superman in 3D with developed overseas markets should not be coming $125 million below a 2008 Batman movie without 3D, 8 years of inflation, Superman, and dramatically improved overseas markets.

Stop comparing bVS to TDk.

as they are two different franchises.The Dceu needs to make its own way as it is totally different as far as characters.

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

There's less movies built around star power than ever this year, but if anyone is being tested, it's Idris Elba. Dark Tower and Mountain are both built pretty much entirely around a high-concept plot mixed with Idris in the lead and another star. That used to be the model for almost every major movie in Hollywood - take a high-concept, put a star in it, and voila! People used to say "let's see the new Will Smith/Tom Cruise joint" instead of saying "Let's see the new Marvel movie."

 

Mountain far more than The Dark Tower which is a very strong IP on it's own.  The bigger question of that movie is if they screw up the book or not - that will determine far more how well it does.

[Wonder89]

There will be another tracking by Deadline, THR or Variety for today?

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Superhero "fatigue" is indeed happening in the sense that the ceiling may very well be lower than it was 6-8 years ago. I doubt a film ever sells as many tickets domestically as THE DARK KNIGHT did (which was a much larger number than 3D boosted Avengers). That said, the floor seems to have picked up for them quite a bit. Regardless of pathetic reviews, a 2016 Batman movie featuring Superman in 3D with developed overseas markets should not be coming $125 million below a 2008 Batman movie without 3D, 8 years of inflation, Superman, and dramatically improved overseas markets.

 

For anything to challenge records again, Christopher Nolan would need to make another Bale as Batman movie, with Leo Dicaprio as Riddler and a dead July marketplace. It would also need to happen within the next 3 years.

 

Otherwise, I don't think we ever see those heights again. The films are not commodities any more.

 

The floor is definitely higher these days than it used to be. Expansion of overseas markets has helped a lot in that regard. But I don't think we will ever see a solo superhero movie hit the domestic market like SM1 or TDK ever again.

[DAR]

At this point I don't know what to think about Homecoming.  It could win the summer or finish just above ASM2 and neither would surprise me

[excel1]

Just now, Brainiac5 said:

Stop comparing bVS to TDk.

as they are two different franchises.The Dceu needs to make its own way as it is totally different as far as characters.

 

It the closest thing to apples-to-apples there is.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Wonder89 said:

There will be another tracking by Deadline, THR or Variety for today?

 

Deadline and probably not for another 6-9 hours.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Wonder89 said:

There will be another tracking by Deadline, THR or Variety for today?

 

Just now, TalismanRing said:

 

Deadline and probably not for another 6-9 hours.

 

Yeah..THR and V usually don't have multiple updates which is crappy considering THR didn't even give a Friday number.

Deadline will update in a few hours and Gitesh might tweet.

[mredman]

29 minutes ago, Iron Raf said:

 

Infinity War is a lock for 1.5B. Only question is how much more than that it's making.

 

 

no its not at all. No movie is a lock for 1.5

 

42 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

 

Yea kid I admit defeat this time but don't worry I'll be back better than ever when JL rolls around.

did you just admit to being a troll lol

12 minutes ago, Iron Raf said:

 

CW wasn't an Avengers movie, despite it having all the characters. Most countries had it titled Captain America 3. WOM wasn't too high as I don't think it was a very fun movie to watch for the general audience outside of the airport battle. Not to mention it came out after BvS. There are many reasons CW only made 1.2B. 

Come on man. It was marketed as a VS movie with Cap vs IM and then they showed all the characters being featured in it. And to say a movie with 90% RT not having good WoM and also great score on IMDB and audience scores is just not true at all.

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, TLK said:

 

I agree with this. A lot more people watch CBM movies than used to back in early 2010s but the people who don't watch CBMs stay away from all of it so we have a higher floor and a lower ceiling. $1.5 billion for IW will depend mostly on China. As far as the domestic goes, nothing over $500 million is a lock.

 

IW will more likely depend on exchange rates.  If AOU had the same O/S exchange rates as Avengers it would have made more than it WW.  CW did more than Avengers O/S with the same exchange rates.

[MattW]

I don't think the DCEU will ever have a billion dollar movie.  And the MCU peaked in nominal terms with Avengers '12 (IW and Av4 will be around 1.3b IMO).

[YM!]

15 minutes ago, mredman said:

no they didnt at all. JL will be their TEAM UP movie ala Avengers. Fun and superheroic. BvS was dark. JL will not be

While I still think $1B should happen for JL, remember some of the novelty might be gone. Wonder Woman will help a lot though. Thinking $145M/$370M/$1B

[That One Girl]

Wonder Woman in an hour and 20 minutes .

[DAJK]

Damn, I really wanna see Wonder Woman again, but I'm probably not going to be able to until next week

 

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, mredman said:

 

Come on man. It was marketed as a VS movie with Cap vs IM and then they showed all the characters being featured in it. And to say a movie with 90% RT not having good WoM and also great score on IMDB and audience scores is just not true at all.

I think having to know 6-8 movies ahead of time cause frontloading and cause d bad legs.

[franfar]

I would say Homecoming needs 400m to win the summer, and I don't see that happening even with good reviews.

 

[mredman]

5 minutes ago, MattW said:

I don't think the DCEU will ever have a billion dollar movie.  And the MCU peaked in nominal terms with Avengers '12 (IW and Av4 will be around 1.3b IMO).

Come on man JL has every chance to get to that. BvS was dark and it was only 130 million away from it. JL will be a TRUE team up movie and more a fun blockbuster movie.

Edited June 2, 2017 by mredman

[Brainiac5]

5 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

It the closest thing to apples-to-apples there is.

Not really ,we have to compare these films to the modern day superhero movie and not the films when there was basically nothing else to watch at the movies.

Mos,BVS and JL are a trilogy  so the second film in the series making 205mil more than the previous film is a damn good increase.

 

[excel1]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The floor is definitely higher these days than it used to be. Expansion of overseas markets has helped a lot in that regard. But I don't think we will ever see a solo superhero movie hit the domestic market like SM1 or TDK ever again.

 

TDK, Avengers, and SM1 are the top 3 domestic ticket sellers. I wouldn't say it's impossible, but it's highly unlikely. 

 

Marvel has saturated their brand and poorly done their only previously A list hero (Spidey) while overusing their only new A list hero (Iron Man). At this point, Marvel movies are much closer to a TV series in season 8 or 9. There is a huge floor of die hard fans, but the ratings are always a bit down from it's season 3 or 4 peak. I doubt even Infinity Wars 2 or whatever they announce as Downey's last movie comes close 2012 size. It also does not help that the movies have lead nowhere and played serious moviegoers for suckers, i.e. people "die" and then return...Tony had drama with Pepper, who just disappears, etc.

 

I do, firmly, believe that audience members inherently like to be challenged while viewing a film. They like to have to think about it a little bit. They like feeling as if they have learned something by the time the film is over. Marvel obviously makes no attempt at this and hasn't for years, and it has cost them that portion of moviegoers.

 

DC...MAN OF STEEL was a chance to make Superman huge again, and it was mixed. BvS and SS's poor quality left hundreds of millions of dollars on the table both in 2016 and for future installments.

 

I will not rule out Nolan and Bale returning to Batman under the right circumstances (i.e. Dunkirk and Justice League both flop). If that were to happen within the next 2 to 3 years...the potential is there. Because that series is a commodity. It would be fresh in the sense that it was totally unexpected. 

 

That is the only case I can envision where we have another $200+/600+ sh film.

[filmlover]

That number seems fine for Wonder Woman? The movie had to deal with the bad taste that Batman v Superman (a sub-2 multiplier, yeesh) and Suicide Squad left in the mouths of many. This should be less backloaded since buzz throughout the weekend will unquestionably be more positive than it was for either of those movies.

 

That projected Pirates fall, Jesus. Will it even reach $150M total at this rate?