Weekend Actuals (Page 130): Cars 53.7M | Wonder Woman 41.3M | All Eyez 26.4M | Mummy 14.5M | 47 Meters 11.2M | POTC 9M | Rough Night 8M

[TwoMisfits]

44 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Transformers, DM3, Spidey all out over the next two-three weeks. What are the chances they all do poorly? Very important towards WW doing $400m given it will start to give up screens. 

 

Transformers takes Mummy's extra screens and GOTG's...

DM3 takes CU and Pirates screens...

Spidey finally starts digging into WW screens...but she keeps almost all her theaters...

 

WW will probably be in 3K theaters at least through July 21 (or 7 weekends including 2 holidays) and it could be more...she's likely to stay in some theaters through Labor Day...that's the set up for the final legs...

 

And it could be more weekends for WW to keep 3K theaters since Mummy and Rough Night and 47 Meters and All Eyez will all fall out of theaters 1st...

Edited June 17, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Chaz]

31 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

DM3 advertising is in overdrive right now, can't turn on the TV without seeing those ads. 

Underpants and Cars are both underperforming so that opens up a DM3 overperformance.

[Zakiyyah6]

Honestly I want to wait until the weekend numbers come in before projecting the film. Movies in June don't always have huge Saturday increases. What if it does 37-38mil instead of 40-43mil? 

[MCKillswitch123]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

You mean, like #1 for the summer:)...nah, you couldn't mean that:)...

 

Of course not. It'll be #3 of the summer at best (assuming Despicable Me 3 underperforms and doesn't reach the heights I think it could, though at this point, it'll probably be happy if it matches Minions). I actually went into the Summer predicting Wonder Woman over Homecoming, and that is the one call I'm proud of at this point

 

That being said, 300M+ is a good height for it.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Just now, Chaz said:

Underpants and Cars are both underperforming so that opens up a DM3 overperformance.

I think it was inevitable that audiences would want to save their money for DM3. Illumination-movies always tend to have great box office results...and this will be no exception.

 

And so far...the RT-rating for DM3 seems very positive so far. Wow! We actually get a well received animated threequel similar to Kung Fu Panda 3 & Madagascar 3. I want more well received threequels like those for example.

 

Smart done, Illumination.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Of course not. It'll be #3 of the summer at best (assuming Despicable Me 3 underperforms and doesn't reach the heights I think it could, though at this point, it'll probably be happy if it matches Minions). I actually went into the Summer predicting Wonder Woman over Homecoming, and that is the one call I'm proud of at this point

 

That being said, 300M+ is a good height for it.

 

I can't really ding you for that b/c I went by supers popularity and quality of trailers for my pre-summer order...if Spiderman is not as good as WW, it will come in below...but if we get another quality super, it's gonna give her (and GOTG) a run...it will go down to the wire b/c great August legs are probably gonna be there for Spidey...

[kswiston]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Transformers takes Mummy's extra screens and GOTG's...

DM3 takes CU and Pirates screens...

Spidey finally starts digging into WW screens...but she keeps almost all her theaters...

 

WW will probably be in 3K theaters at least through July 21 (or 7 weekends including 2 holidays) and it could be more...she's likely to stay in some theaters through Labor Day...that's the set up for the final legs...

 

Guardians doesnt really have that many screens to take. I'm sure that we're looking at single screens from most of the remaining venues. Transformers needs what? 8-10k screens?

 

Also, you are nuts if you think that Wonder Woman will stay in 3k+ screens for 7 weekends. The Force Awakens, Jurassic World, and The Avengers each got 6 weekends above 3k. All had weaker competition in weeks 4-6.

[GiantCALBears]

10 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Honestly I want to wait until the weekend numbers come in before projecting the film. Movies in June don't always have huge Saturday increases. What if it does 37-38mil instead of 40-43mil? 

I think the Saturday increase will be a bit softer than some are expecting but a really hot Father's Day should make up for that. Movies are great counter programming to intense heat.

Edited June 17, 2017 by GiantCALBears

[GiantCALBears]

1 minute ago, kswiston said:

 

Guardians doesnt really have that many screens to take. I'm sure that we're looking at single screens from most of the remaining venues. Transformers needs what? 8-10k screens?

 

Also, you are nuts if you think that Wonder Woman will stay in 3k+ screens for 7 weekends. The Force Awakens, Jurassic World, and The Avengers each got 6 weekends above 3k. All had weaker competition in weeks 4-6.

And that's the problem for it getting to $400m. It's already had its portion with weaker competition so the holds by default have to continue to be sensational. 

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I can't really ding you for that b/c I went by supers popularity and quality of trailers for my pre-summer order...if Spiderman is not as good as WW, it will come in below...but if we get another quality super, it's gonna give her (and GOTG) a run...it will go down to the wire b/c great August legs are probably gonna be there for Spidey...

 

Ehh, I think it's looking at a slightly higher OW than Wonder Woman followed by worse legs (it's gonna have a more Guardians-type run, if anything). It's gonna need to be really, REEEALLLLY good in order for it to give Guardians and Diana a run, and even then, I think we forget that there is a multitude of factors that play into WW's legs, amongst of which the fact that it's a movie that is building its fanbase as it goes along (i.e. out of the just over 100M in ticket sales for OW, the demographic breakdown iirc was even, and now more and more women are coming in every weekend to support this through and through), while Spidey will probably be the most "standard" CB movie we'll have in a while, and it'll more than likely be the most frontloaded one in a while.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I can't really ding you for that b/c I went by supers popularity and quality of trailers for my pre-summer order...if Spiderman is not as good as WW, it will come in below...but if we get another quality super, it's gonna give her (and GOTG) a run...it will go down to the wire b/c great August legs are probably gonna be there for Spidey...

I think the presence of Tony Stark will guarantee that Spiderman: Homecoming (hopefully) doesn't decrease DOM-wise....again.

 

I mean, seriously? The Spiderman films after the first Raimi one did nothing but drop off DOM with each film. It would be sad if this one dropped like all the other SM-follow ups. Like a plane slowly going down near for a crash or a boulder rolling down.

Edited June 17, 2017 by MrFanaticGuy34

[James]

WW is the gift that keeps on giving. I generally over predict movies and that fact that I am constantly trying to over predict this one and I fall short every time is amazing! 

[GiantCALBears]

Spidey 1 hold on a weekly basis from 1-2 was -41.4%, WW was slightly worse at -41.8%. Spidey then dropped an insane -35.6% from week 2-3 which also had the addition of AOTC as competition. 

[GiantCALBears]

Btw the fact that we are even comparing Spidey to WW shows how insane WW has done.

[kswiston]

5 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

I think the Saturday increase will be a bit softer than some are expecting but a really hot Father's Day should make up for that. Movies are great counter programming to intense heat.

 

I'm thinking $40-41M this weekend for Wonder Woman. A bump of 40% today and a tiny 5% drop on Fathers day gives you $40.5M

 

If my Saturday is correct, I would expect WB to go with a more conservative 15% drop Sunday in the estimates, giving us a sub-$40M weekend until the actuals are in. 

 

Looking through the last 7 Fathers' day weekends, a 30% bump wouldn't be all that unusual though. Especially since Friday seems strong across the board this year (probably due to the heat as you say). We'll know tomorrow morning. Maybe tonight if Rth or EC are kind.  

 

 

[grim22]

Cars 3 had a lower OD than the first Cars despite previews, ticket price inflation and 3D. Is this franchise the only majority disliked one among Pixar's movies?

[elcaballero]

34 minutes ago, ttr said:

True. But I think Disney has tried, all the new ones seem to flop (like Tomorrowland).

Exactly my point. There's not much of an incentive for them.

[titanic2187]

too bad that TF5 come in 2 days earlier, making WW-blockbuster-type of dominion be over 2 days earlier than supposed 

[GiantCALBears]

Looks like those Cars matinees werent as strong as expected. Much more meh number than yesterday especially when you take out previews. 

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

Guardians doesnt really have that many screens to take. I'm sure that we're looking at single screens from most of the remaining venues. Transformers needs what? 8-10k screens?

 

Also, you are nuts if you think that Wonder Woman will stay in 3k+ screens for 7 weekends. The Force Awakens, Jurassic World, and The Avengers each got 6 weekends above 3k. All had weaker competition in weeks 4-6.

 

It's cool...I don't mind being called nuts...just remind me to pull this out weekend 7 when she's still in 3K theaters:)...

 

I mean, when someone can point to the under 18 girl movie that theaters will have instead of WW, I'll believe they'll give the movie away and this won't keep 3K theaters for 7+ weeks...I think I've mentioned that at least 10x, and no one can give me that movie which theaters owners will have in order to punt this one...probably b/c most of you don't look for little/tween girls movies b/c you don't need to do so...