Jurassic World II OS Thread

[MattW]

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4881806/releaseinfo?ref_=tt_dt_dt

 

More than half of the markets will open the weekend of June 6-10

China June 15-17

And another group the same weekend as it opens in North America, June 20-24

With Japan coming in a month later than everyone else as normal.

 

And I imagine more will be added to those weekends.

 

Both Avengers, IM3 and Civil War opened to 200m overseas from more than half of markets, so I'd guess JW:FK will do around that the first weekend, 175-200.

China I think will match or beat Jurassic World's 5 day opening, 100+

A handful more markets after that, 50-100 maybe?  Just guessing really.

 

Possible scenario leading up to the domestic release:

	OS Total	OS week	OS-Ch Total	OS-Ch week	China Total	China week
June 10	175	175	175	175
June 17	405	230	300	125	105	105
June 24	575	170	410	110	165	60

 

Probably too conservative, but that's what I'll go with for now.

[PanaMovie]

Opening two weeks before the start of the World Cup is great 

 

940M OS

 

and over 1.3B WW

 

 

[Brainbug]

Solo underperforming/flopping will help this movies OS gross. Its practically the only big action blockbuster for the whole of June in many markets.

[manny1234]

Well this will do more and good business. 

Edited May 25, 2018 by manny1234

[Brainbug]

So im extremely hyped for this (well i love dinosaurs what can i say) so im very optimistic about this one. And given that its only 2 weeks away in many markets, i shall make my last prediction:

 

1,1B OS. Above JW's total. China will be huge for this, potentially having an OW higher than the domestic one. And with good/great reception i dont see it falling that much in most markets anymore. Plus, because of the World Cup, it has nearly a whole month in some markets for itself.

[fabiopazzo2]

I think we have a little decrease in EU but an increase in Asia 

 

[Not really]

With 2 weeks left to go, I predict that this will beat TLJ worldwide and become the 2nd highest-grossing film of 2018 by a minuscule margin. 

Edited May 26, 2018 by Not really

[MrFanaticGuy34]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

So im extremely hyped for this (well i love dinosaurs what can i say) so im very optimistic about this one. And given that its only 2 weeks away in many markets, i shall make my last prediction:

 

1,1B OS. Above JW's total. China will be huge for this, potentially having an OW higher than the domestic one. And with good/great reception i dont see it falling that much in most markets anymore. Plus, because of the World Cup, it has nearly a whole month in some markets for itself.

That and Solo not doing as much OS, will help JW2.

[Brainbug]

Just now, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

That and Solo not doing as much OS, will help JW2.

 

On 25.5.2018 at 1:56 AM, Brainbug said:

Solo underperforming/flopping will help this movies OS gross. Its practically the only big action blockbuster for the whole of June in many markets.

 

[Muzdt]

              JW2              AIW              TLJ              BP    
        Tot     Average  Tot     Average  Tot     Average  Tot     Average
T-7       2,845     711   17,751   3,550                     1,768     295
T-6                       20,201   4,040                     2,117     353
T-5                       22,713   4,543                     2,508     418
T-4                       25,381   5,076                     4,467     745
T-3                       28,832   5,766                     7,755   1,293
T-2                       34,763   6,953    9,639   2,410   10,346   1,724
T-1                       47,133   9,427   13,507   3,377   16,386   2,731
T                         69,757  13,951   21,196   5,299   31,136   5,189

[pepsa]

I could see 1B + OS for this, but on the other hand 750m woudn't suprise me either.

I mean, I have no clue.

Edited June 1, 2018 by pepsa

[a2k]

...
 

Edited June 1, 2018 by A2k Rex
Wrong Calc

[pepsa]

On 1-6-2018 at 9:29 AM, A2k Rex said:

China could be conservative but OS-Ch is pretty sweet.

If by dom release OS is 575 with 170 week, then 150 more for 725 OS is very likely. 750 with bigger China. Close to JW's 790.

Then 400-450 dom gives 400-450 + 725-750 = 1125-1200 WW

 

China is doing farely good atm, looking at $300m maybe more. But could be less if it is very frontloaded like IW

Edited June 2, 2018 by pepsa

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, pepsa said:

China is doing farely good atm, looking at $300m maybe more. But could be less is very frontloaded like IW

If IW can manage 1.8x (200/360) then 2.0x is feasible for FK with similar reception imo. JW did 2.3x. China may also not follow normal sequelitis rules as the rating and reception turns things upside down.

 

294 China (155 ow * 1.9) + 632 OS-China (-20% from 790) + 424 (-35% from 652) = 1350 ww would be sweet and ahead of BP 

Edited June 1, 2018 by A2k Rex

[Brainbug]

56 minutes ago, A2k Rex said:

If IW can manage 1.8x (200/360) then 2.0x is feasible for FK with similar reception imo. JW did 2.3x. China may also not follow normal sequelitis rules as the rating and reception turns things upside down.

 

294 China (155 ow * 1.9) + 632 OS-China (-20% from 790) + 424 (-35% from 652) = 1350 ww would be sweet and ahead of BP 

 

Objectively this would be a phenomenal result (though i want more lol). Great profile pic btw

[Muzdt]

              JW2              AIW              TLJ              BP    
        Tot     Average  Tot     Average  Tot     Average  Tot     Average
T-7       2,845     711   17,751   3,550                     1,768     295
T-6       3,575     894   20,201   4,040                     2,117     353
T-5                       22,713   4,543                     2,508     418
T-4                       25,381   5,076                     4,467     745
T-3                       28,832   5,766                     7,755   1,293
T-2                       34,763   6,953    9,639   2,410   10,346   1,724
T-1                       47,133   9,427   13,507   3,377   16,386   2,731
T                         69,757  13,951   21,196   5,299   31,136   5,189

[Muzdt]

              JW2              AIW              TLJ              BP    
        Tot     Average  Tot     Average  Tot     Average  Tot     Average
T-7       2,845     711   17,751   3,550                     1,768     295
T-6       3,575     894   20,201   4,040                     2,117     353
T-5       4,461   1,115   22,713   4,543                     2,508     418
T-4                       25,381   5,076                     4,467     745
T-3                       28,832   5,766                     7,755   1,293
T-2                       34,763   6,953    9,639   2,410   10,346   1,724
T-1                       47,133   9,427   13,507   3,377   16,386   2,731
T                         69,757  13,951   21,196   5,299   31,136   5,189

[bladels]

On 6/1/2018 at 2:32 PM, pepsa said:

China is doing farely good atm, looking at $300m maybe more. But could be less is very frontloaded like IW

IW isn't frontloaded, it's presale heavy. It got 1.85x

[pepsa]

9 minutes ago, bladels said:

IW isn't frontloaded, it's presale heavy. It got 1.85x

Well I didn't have any competition untill JW. That helped a fair bit, but yeah legs were decent. Indeed I was talking about PS heavy, sorry for that.

 

[Muzdt]

              JW2              AIW              TLJ              BP    
        Tot     Average  Tot     Average  Tot     Average  Tot     Average
T-7       2,845     711   17,751   3,550                     1,768     295
T-6       3,575     894   20,201   4,040                     2,117     353
T-5       4,461   1,115   22,713   4,543                     2,508     418
T-4       6,666   1,667   25,381   5,076                     4,467     745
T-3                       28,832   5,766                     7,755   1,293
T-2                       34,763   6,953    9,639   2,410   10,346   1,724
T-1                       47,133   9,427   13,507   3,377   16,386   2,731
T                         69,757  13,951   21,196   5,299   31,136   5,189