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CaptainJackSparrow

Jurassic World II OS Thread

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This is the kind of movie that is massive in just every single market, being DOM maybe the least impressive (remains to be seen). Under 800m OS just look too low if China does its work (300m+). I'm going with 950m OS. World Cup is a factor...but light competition ahead should balance it.

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F8 grossed $618M OS-Ch, about -20% drop from F7 ($773M)

 

AoU grossed ~$706M Os-Ch, a -13% drop from TA ($805M).

 

*In AoU case though, it was a 3-year gap with 2015 ER being much worse compare to 2012. So even wonkily, if we factor that in, AoU OS-Ch likely increased from TA (or at the worst, stay flat) 

 

JW may be more comparable to F7>>F8, so I expect ~20% drop OS on the worse side, and ~10% drop on the more optimistic end. Add in the big advantage of China increasing instead of staying flat (in dolllars) like with F8, and it’ll be in for a good run.

Edited by Sam
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6 hours ago, picores said:

This is the kind of movie that is massive in just every single market, being DOM maybe the least impressive (remains to be seen). Under 800m OS just look too low if China does its work (300m+). I'm going with 950m OS. World Cup is a factor...but light competition ahead should balance it.

It’s presales in China don’t indicate anywhere near 300+ million. Even if we assume that this isn’t a pre sale heavy film there, although why wouldn’t it be , I don’t see how, with such low pre sale numbers,this will do IW numbers in China.

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"On Wednesday, play starts in France, Germany and Korea with such majors as the UK, Italy, Russia and Spain heading to Isla Nublar through Friday. Estimates from our sources put this one in a range of $130M-$145M for the weekend with many around the $150M mark. That would land JWFK a touch below the 2015 behemoth which kicked off at $158.6M in like-for-like markets and at today’s exchange rates."

 

https://deadline.com/2018/06/jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-international-box-office-preview-1202403909/

 

$158.6M is the magical number that it needs to beat.

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8 hours ago, Thrylos 7 said:

It’s presales in China don’t indicate anywhere near 300+ million. Even if we assume that this isn’t a pre sale heavy film there, although why wouldn’t it be , I don’t see how, with such low pre sale numbers,this will do IW numbers in China.

AiW cross 370M plus in China.JW2 has shot for 250-350M.It's hard to say now.it's not fan heavy film.It's more like Rampage.

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              JW2              AIW              TLJ              BP    
        Tot     Average  Tot     Average  Tot     Average  Tot     Average
T-7       2,845     711   17,751   3,550                     1,768     295
T-6       3,575     894   20,201   4,040                     2,117     353
T-5       4,461   1,115   22,713   4,543                     2,508     418
T-4       6,666   1,667   25,381   5,076                     4,467     745
T-3       8,942   2,236   28,832   5,766                     7,755   1,293
T-2      12,723   3,181   34,763   6,953    9,639   2,410   10,346   1,724
T-1      18,099   4,525   47,133   9,427   13,507   3,377   16,386   2,731
T                         69,757  13,951   21,196   5,299   31,136   5,189

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21 minutes ago, John Marston said:

So it’s flopping? Fuck

I think that is based on your definition of flopping.

I think this movie will gross 1B WW.

I think something like 450 + 950 is possible (950=675+275) might overestimate OS-China and underestimate Dom and Ch.

 

Sorry for starting three sentences with 'I'.

Edited by Taruseth
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17 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

I think that is based on your definition of flopping.

I think this movie will gross 1B WW.

I think something like 450 + 950 is possible (950=675+275) might overestimate OS-China and underestimate Dom and Ch.

 

Sorry for starting three sentences with 'I'.

I think you're quite right.

I think you just named my exact same prediction, thus JW2 would take the no.2 spot on the ww top in 2018.

I think that it might go a little higher or lower than $1.4B, depending on reception & the world cup.

Edited by Andreas
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