Jurassic World II OS Thread

[Blaze Heatnix]

10 hours ago, Quigley said:

Honestly the whole "it-will-do-less-than-a-billion" chat is complete nonsense. I don't understand why so many real people believe this is possible.

 

 

Some people ( me included ) were ( or are ) expecting another BVS performance.

 

I was one those who predicted less than 1 billion worldwide, but I usually do that for fun. I mean, numbers are unpredictable. So, that's the fun of this whole page. Movie has been available since the beginning of this month worldwide. Only Japan remains now.

 

Anyway, now it seems this movie might make between 1 billion and 1.2 billion worldwide. 

[a2k]

230-250 china

350-390 dom (144.50-149.5 ow * 2.42-2.61x)

520-560 os-china

1100-1200 ww

[Thrylos 7]

On 6/23/2018 at 10:06 AM, pepsa said:

It will be close to 1B next week I think. Atleast at $900m +, so yeah 1B is locked.

It’s not like there will be much juice left in it after next week. Already out in most os market for ages it will be close to the end of its run in most markets earning pennies onwards with the U.S contributing most of its remaining grosses.

 

1.1 billion is what I think, but still waiting on the domestic legs, not convinced about them at all.

[pepsa]

59 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

It’s not like there will be much juice left in it after next week. Already out in most os market for ages it will be close to the end of its run in most markets earning pennies onwards with the U.S contributing most of its remaining grosses.

 

1.1 billion is what I think, but still waiting on the domestic legs, not convinced about them at all.

Great WE in china and a good holds in europe. Nice OW in the US so it might still get to 1.2B.

[Brainbug]

I want it to beat Minions so badly.

[Thrylos 7]

1 hour ago, pepsa said:

Great WE in china and a good holds in europe. Nice OW in the US so it might still get to 1.2B.

It has to really overperform in the U.S (over 450 million) and I don’t see it. It’s not like it’s a huge difference 1.1-1.2 billion so it could happen, but as things are right now it seems quite difficult to me. Good legs in Europe so late in its run won’t really offer that much and in China it’s going for what 230-250 million total, needs a very good hold in the U.S and it could happen I guess just like the opposite could happen with JW2 having really bad legs in the U.S.

[pepsa]

OS at $466m by Thursday,

China ads another $70m

Current OS-Ch markets were at: $296m, they add another $104m.

The new OS countries + the other yet to come do about $150m .

Dom OW $149m => $400m TOT

 

Add 466 + 70 +104 + 150 +400 = 1.19B

So 1.2B isn't that hard imo.

Btw this could go up by quite a bit, might go down by a bit as well. I see the range at: 1.16B-1.25B

 

Edited June 24, 2018 by pepsa

[baumer]

I don't think 1.2 is that difficult either.  It opened 9 international markets this weekend and still has Japan left in July.  400 is possible in North America as well.  So 1.2 seems like a good bet.

[Not really]

As much as I want to, I won't celebrate just yet. Japan will be the deciding factor in this. 

[pepsa]

13 minutes ago, Not really said:

As much as I want to, I won't celebrate just yet. Japan will be the deciding factor in this. 

Celebrate what?

[Not really]

Just now, pepsa said:

Celebrate what?

$1.2B. That gives me a far different feeling compared to $1.1B. 

[pepsa]

4 minutes ago, Not really said:

$1.2B. That gives me a far different feeling compared to $1.1B. 

What? 1.17B or 1.2B is almost the same. But I think JW2 has a good shot at 1.2B.

[Not really]

1 minute ago, pepsa said:

What? 1.17B or 1.2B is almost the same. But I think JW2 has a good shot at 1.2B.

But the feeling of "It did slightly under $1.2B" and "It did slightly over $1.2B" are vastly different to me. There must be a time when you've experienced something like this, right?

[baumer]

A 25% world wide decline to a film that blew everyone's expectations out of the water, is not just great, it should be expected.  Not saying we should have all known this was going to happen, but when you analyze the film and drops and so on, and take into consideration other various factors, 1.2 billion is really quite good.  

[pepsa]

6 minutes ago, Not really said:

But the feeling of "It did slightly under $1.2B" and "It did slightly over $1.2B" are vastly different to me. There must be a time when you've experienced something like this, right?

Yeah with the hobbi 2-3 not doing 1B, but never with 1.18B - 1.2B or 1.38B - 1.4B. But with big millestones yeah I do have that irrational feeling. So I know what you mean.

[pepsa]

21 minutes ago, baumer said:

A 25% world wide decline to a film that blew everyone's expectations out of the water, is not just great, it should be expected.  Not saying we should have all known this was going to happen, but when you analyze the film and drops and so on, and take into consideration other various factors, 1.2 billion is really quite good.  

Decreasing by 28% (25% if it does $1.25B) isn't bad comming from an unexpected monster hit. I think the important part is to not decrease another 20% with JW3. If they can keep the franchise stable at above 1B. That would be great for Universal. Tbf if they could get it stable around $800m-$900m with a 170m budget they are fine as well. The problem you get with 850m is that you don't have an as big buffer.

Edited June 24, 2018 by pepsa

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, pepsa said:

Decreasing by 28% (25% if it does $1.25B) isn't bad comming from an unexpected monster hit. I think the important part is to not decrease another 20% with JW3. If they can keep the franchise stable at above 1B. That would be great for fox. Tbf if they could get it stable around $800m-$900m with a 170m budget they are fine as well. The problem you get with 850m is that you don't have an as big buffer.

 

 

Very good post if it wasnt for that

[baumer]

Just now, pepsa said:

Decreasing by 28% (25% if it does $1.25B) isn't bad comming from an unexpected monster hit. I think the important part is to not decrease another 20% with JW3. If they can keep the franchise stable at above 1B. That would be great for fox. Tbf if they could get it stable around $800m-$900m with a 170m budget they are fine as well. The problem you get with 850m is that you don't have an as big buffer.

 

I know this is strictly about theatrical box office but the thing about all of this that we never talk about is these films are still making money for the studios a decade down the road.  So yes, seeing it drop to under a billion for the third one looks bad to us, the casual box office office follower.  But they are using these films for box sets, TV deals, marketing, toys and a litany of other things.  I have one buddy who works for one of the studios and he is a money guy.  He always tells me that the theatrical stuff is important but a small slice of the pie.  And he says that they release these films using a ten year window.  That means they expect to make money off of them consistently for a decade.  So yes, the theatrical stuff is obviously very important but there are any other revenue streams. 

[FilmBuff]

Damn, y’all need to chill out. So much salt.

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

Damn, y’all need to chill out. So much salt.

 

Nope....just one guy.