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CaptainJackSparrow

Jurassic World II OS Thread

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42 minutes ago, kswiston said:

There is something wrong with Universal's China figure. Saturday was in the low 40Ms. The film should be ~$74M over 2 days. How is it supposed to make over $50M today?

China Sat looks earlier to bump +30% from Friday, so closer to mid-$40M.

 

But yeah, you’re right, 125.3M means Sun has to increase from Sat. No chance of that. Estimates most likely gonna adjust down tomorrow morning.

 

~$120M 3-day opening for China is still good though. 

 

Edit: China Sat estimate just got posted and yup, $125.3M is way overestimating. Closer to the initial projection of $115M opening.

Edited by Sam
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1 hour ago, Sam said:

China Sat looks earlier to bump +30% from Friday, so closer to mid-$40M.

 

But yeah, you’re right, 125.3M means Sun has to increase from Sat. No chance of that. Estimates most likely gonna adjust down tomorrow morning.

 

~$120M 3-day opening for China is still good though. 

 

Edit: China Sat estimate just got posted and yup, $125.3M is way overestimating. Closer to the initial projection of $115M opening.

 

Closer to $110m for the 3 day.  $125m is going to be closer to 4 day.  Maybe that's what they meant but then again they added it to w/e OS-C numbers....

 

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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9 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Closer to $110m for the 3 day.  $125m is going to be closer to 4 day.  Maybe that's what they meant but then again they added it to w/e OS-C numbers....

 

 

You’re right. 710M yuan is about $110M.

 

Overestimate by $15M :rofl:  

 

Someone should help point Universal to the Disney’s (under)estimation playbook. 

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Just saw this. I don't know how audiences are going to respond to the ending, but overall it is a pretty damn good film and a very good sequel that may be just as good as the first one.

This one deserves a good box office run.

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For anyone thinking why it's less than the estimate, it's because yesterday they gave the estimate with 4-Day China total, but here it's 3-Day. Atleast that's what I think.

Edited by oMeriMombatti
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22 minutes ago, Olive said:

Current OS markets will struggle to under 600M.

JW1 made 205M in Left-to -open markets, FK will make 150M.

Looks like 750M OS total

Add in a hypothetical $350M DOM and FK gets a $1.1B total. I hope Japan overperforms big time. 

 

TFA to TLJ: $1.076B

JP to TLW: $1.129B

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28 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Man, 500-550 million less than the first worldwide , we are heading to TLJ territory.

Which is pretty much just like expected, nothing unusual about it. Both TLJ and JW2 were bound to drop a lot. Maybe they end up 100m below the range that was likely, but they are still generally where you would expect them to be.

 

The ways to improve or at least see a somewhat similar performance in terms of the worldwide gross when following a huge movie are

1) having much better exchange rates or a different sort pf price boost over the last one (POTC 4 would be a good example, which also got a 3D boost)

2) the last movie being only a modest hit in a quickly growing market (e.g. China), allowing for huge growth there to balance losses elsewhere (see Age of Ultron, which also benefitted from a general growth of Marvel in Europe)

3) the culmination of a huge franchise that spend quite a lot of time getting to this point (see Infinity War)

 

Movies like TFA and JW already got a huge boost due to the return of the franchise, which caused nostalgia to drive both to huge heights, which in turn created interest elsewhere. This would automatically cause the next installment to see drastic drops unless exchange rates would be far better. If Infinity War were to be followed up by something like Age of Ultron instead of an installment that continues the Thanos storyline, you'd see huge drops as well.

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$173.6M weekend, out of which $111.9m was from China. Rest of the markets did $61.7m (including 2 new small markets). So almost 60% drop in holdover markets.

 

China should add another $100-105M or so. Rest of the current markets should add a further $125-130M.

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Mexico Australia Brazil Argentina and other smaller Will add minimum 130  MLN

Japan 40 MLN 

China 100 Million More  

RoW 100 MLN More 

 

Total Overseas : 370  + 170 + 200 = 740 MLN 

Needs 260 Domestic for a billion 

 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Which is pretty much just like expected, nothing unusual about it. Both TLJ and JW2 were bound to drop a lot. Maybe they end up 100m below the range that was likely, but they are still generally where you would expect them to be.

Or it drops like a rock because it's shit, just like TLJ. Other big franchises don't drop this much.

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