Jurassic World II OS Thread

[Thrylos 7]

1 hour ago, George Parr said:

Which is pretty much just like expected, nothing unusual about it. Both TLJ and JW2 were bound to drop a lot. Maybe they end up 100m below the range that was likely, but they are still generally where you would expect them to be.

 

The ways to improve or at least see a somewhat similar performance in terms of the worldwide gross when following a huge movie are

1) having much better exchange rates or a different sort pf price boost over the last one (POTC 4 would be a good example, which also got a 3D boost)

2) the last movie being only a modest hit in a quickly growing market (e.g. China), allowing for huge growth there to balance losses elsewhere (see Age of Ultron, which also benefitted from a general growth of Marvel in Europe)

3) the culmination of a huge franchise that spend quite a lot of time getting to this point (see Infinity War)

 

Movies like TFA and JW already got a huge boost due to the return of the franchise, which caused nostalgia to drive both to huge heights, which in turn created interest elsewhere. This would automatically cause the next installment to see drastic drops unless exchange rates would be far better. If Infinity War were to be followed up by something like Age of Ultron instead of an installment that continues the Thanos storyline, you'd see huge drops as well.

The drop is severe as was TLJ drop. I could name a ton of films (big or a bit smaller blockbusters) that didn’t drop nearly as much. The only movies that usually drop that much is when the previous film did great but was hated/disliked by the audience , see matrix reloaded, or are tired franchises like transformers. We could sit down and search for excuses all day but for being just the first sequel the drop of JW2 is extraordinary.

 

You are cherry picking films but transformers films held better for a very long time, the marvel films (big or smaller) usually increase, the sequel to the dark knight held better, even older stuff like the Reimi spider man films held great or increased.

Edited June 17, 2018 by Thrylos 7

[Hades]

 Yet another billion dollar Universal film. They are so used to it by now. They have come a long way since those struggling years in the 2000s.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

14 minutes ago, Hades said:

 Yet another billion dollar Universal film. They are so used to it by now. They have come a long way since those struggling years in the 2000s.

Oh, 1B WW is happening, despite the drop. If two of the Hobbit sequels got close, although not hitting the mark with $955-958M WW each...i think JW2 will hit it safely. No way...this one must miss the mark, unless it goes Alice 2-style.

[John Marston]

doesn't seem like a great drop. Hopefully lack of competition and summer can help it stay afloat for a while

[Agafin]

1 hour ago, Firepower said:

Or it drops like a rock because it's shit, just like TLJ. Other big franchises don't drop this much.

I mean, there aren't a lot of comparable movies. In fact, I can't think of a recent example other than those two of the sequel to a nostalgia driven overachiever.

[Not really]

8 hours ago, Firepower said:

Or it drops like a rock because it's shit, just like TLJ. Other big franchises don't drop this much.

It's a sequel to the return to one of the biggest franchises of all time. If there's any examples besides TLJ and FK that didn't drop this much, I'd be genuinely interested to hear about it.

 

That being said, the current results does suggest that mixed reception is a potential contributing factor in the decline. 

[Ledmonkey96]

1 hour ago, Not really said:

It's a sequel to the return to one of the biggest franchises of all time. If there's any examples besides TLJ and FK that didn't drop this much, I'd be genuinely interested to hear about it.

 

That being said, the current results does suggest that mixed reception is a potential contributing factor in the decline. 

I'd say I2 and FD are both somewhat decent comparisons.

[Sam]

It’s a bad percentage drop off (it was bad for TLJ, and it is bad for this too if it drops near 500M WW) 

 

But like with TLJ, it’s nowhere near a bad/fail total gross when all is said and done. 

[Not really]

1 hour ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

I'd say I2 and FD are both somewhat decent comparisons.

That's fair enough. They're both animations and not quite as big as JP and SW, but they're close enough to make a comparison. There's also Jumanji.

 

Also, they're not the sequel to the highly-anticipated return. They're just the highly-anticipated return. There's no I3 or FN3 yet.

 

 

Edited June 18, 2018 by Not really

[pepsa]

5 hours ago, Not really said:

It's a sequel to the return to one of the biggest franchises of all time. If there's any examples besides TLJ and FK that didn't drop this much, I'd be genuinely interested to hear about it.

 

That being said, the current results does suggest that mixed reception is a potential contributing factor in the decline. 

Nvm

Edited June 18, 2018 by pepsa

[a2k]

Uni misjudged bo distribution over the 4-day weekend in China, and they should have sided with caution anyway. But Monday is looking big and strong ($31-32) and $144.5-145.5 4-day seems likely.

Edited June 18, 2018 by a2k

[George Parr]

14 hours ago, Thrylos 7 said:

The drop is severe as was TLJ drop. I could name a ton of films (big or a bit smaller blockbusters) that didn’t drop nearly as much. The only movies that usually drop that much is when the previous film did great but was hated/disliked by the audience , see matrix reloaded, or are tired franchises like transformers. We could sit down and search for excuses all day but for being just the first sequel the drop of JW2 is extraordinary.

 

You are cherry picking films but transformers films held better for a very long time, the marvel films (big or smaller) usually increase, the sequel to the dark knight held better, even older stuff like the Reimi spider man films held great or increased.

Um, no, that's in fact very far away from the truth.

 

First of all, this is about truly huge movies, and those don't hold well unless they get boosted by something else. Second of all, what matters is which movie was the really big one. When the "first" is the big one, as happens with the return of a beloved franchise (see TFA or JW), then that movie had an abnormally high gross that went beyond what the franchise normally does. Hence the next one dropping big time, regardless of how well liked the follow up is.

 

I am cherry picking films?

Maybe look in a mirror for once, because you are the one doing that. Your examples couldn't fit less. This was specifically about huge movies, not about smaller movies that increase. Yes, there are ways for a franchise to increase if the first one was a sleeper hit that wasn't quite huge yet. But this clearly doesn't apply here, so there goes your stuff like Matrix or the Marvel movies. Marvel is in fact proof of what I said. The smaller ones are irrelevant because they aren't huge, while the Avengers movies did see a significant drop with the second one that was only countered by Asia being much bigger in the meantime (especially China), which was exactly what I stated as one of the ways a huge franchise can keep up its numbers. Looking through the markets, things improved tremendously for Age of Ultron in growing asian markets (especially China and South Korea, which went from 136m to ~320m, with smaller territories chiming in on top of that), and stayed about flat in parts where Marvel was relatively quiet and growing as a franchise before this (e.g. parts of Europe, where The Avengers did relatively weak compared to the market sizes), everywhere else the movie lost a combined 300m from the last one.

 

Transformers is yet another franchise that proves exactly what I was saying. International numbers were good but hardly amazing for the first two movies of the franchise, and even then was Asia offering a surprisingly high percentage of the number for its market share at that time. The third and fourth one then blew up bigtime thangs to 3D and further huge jumps in Asia, even when they were already on the downswing domestically, exactly the things I was talking about.

 

The Dark Knight and Dark Knight Rises is another example where the earlier movie wasn't quite as big internationally, thus allowing plenty of room to grow, which in turn makes it anything but a proper comparison for a sequel to a huge movie like Jurassic World. Simply put, you have to look at which movie was the big one, and judge the sequels depending on that, including factoring in price development and exchange rates as well as significant market-developments in the meantime. JW, just like TFA, was already huge from the get go. Any franchise were the first part wasn't comparable to that isn't a valid comparison. Growth can happen when you have a small to mid-sized hit, sequels plummet when coming of a truly gigantic movie, unless very unique circumstances counteract the drop, like China going from middling market to be far away the top international market. This is also quite evident when you look at the fact that The Avengers came out before China truly exploded, while Age of Ultron came out afterwards. While JW came out in the same year as Age of Ultron, thus having little chance to see a giant leap in China with further sequels. Especially when those sequels are not the culmination of the whole franchise, like with Infinity War.

 

You can ignore reality all you want, but that won't change it.

Edited June 18, 2018 by George Parr

[Firepower]

F&F7 seriously overperformed and F&F8 didn't drop from it much. Avengers 1 seriously overperformed and Avengers 2 didn't drop much. Transformers have stayed flat for 4 movies. The Dark Knight seriously overperformed and TDKR didn't drop from it. So defending 35-40% drops of TLJ and potentially JW:FK is very dumb. It's not normal to drop like that, drops this big have to do with quality, not with dumb excuses like exchange rate.

Edited June 18, 2018 by Firepower

[a2k]

22 minutes ago, Firepower said:

F&F7 seriously overperformed and F&F8 didn't drop from it much. Avengers 1 seriously overperformed and Avengers 2 didn't drop much. Transformers have stayed flat for 4 movies. The Dark Knight seriously overperformed and TDKR didn't drop from it. So defending 35-40% drops of TLJ and potentially JW:FK is very dumb. It's not normal to drop like that, drops this big have to do with quality, not with dumb excuses like exchange rate.

agree, the drop's not normal. 20% drop from jw1's ww gives about 1337 and wasn't expecting less than that.

 

used to think that os-china could show a 10-15% drop from jw1's 790, china could grow 10-15% from jw1's 229 and dom could slide 25-30%, and it wouldn't get worse than that. but right now os-china is looking to drop 30-35%, china could drop 0-5% and dom could slide 40-45%. the promos were not good hooking people to make this a must-watch event. much like with aou vis a vis ta, more of the same was promised on a larger scale. it was a little all over the place and then only wom can compensate for that. honestly I think the holds os have been decent and think 2.6x multi dom is possible.

Edited June 18, 2018 by a2k

[pepsa]

2 hours ago, George Parr said:

Um, no, that's in fact very far away from the truth.

 

First of all, this is about truly huge movies, and those don't hold well unless they get boosted by something else. Second of all, what matters is which movie was the really big one. When the "first" is the big one, as happens with the return of a beloved franchise (see TFA or JW), then that movie had an abnormally high gross that went beyond what the franchise normally does. Hence the next one dropping big time, regardless of how well liked the follow up is.

 

I am cherry picking films?

Maybe look in a mirror for once, because you are the one doing that. Your examples couldn't fit less. This was specifically about huge movies, not about smaller movies that increase. Yes, there are ways for a franchise to increase if the first one was a sleeper hit that wasn't quite huge yet. But this clearly doesn't apply here, so there goes your stuff like Matrix or the Marvel movies. Marvel is in fact proof of what I said. The smaller ones are irrelevant because they aren't huge, while the Avengers movies did see a significant drop with the second one that was only countered by Asia being much bigger in the meantime (especially China), which was exactly what I stated as one of the ways a huge franchise can keep up its numbers. Looking through the markets, things improved tremendously for Age of Ultron in growing asian markets (especially China and South Korea, which went from 136m to ~320m, with smaller territories chiming in on top of that), and stayed about flat in parts where Marvel was relatively quiet and growing as a franchise before this (e.g. parts of Europe, where The Avengers did relatively weak compared to the market sizes), everywhere else the movie lost a combined 300m from the last one.

 

Transformers is yet another franchise that proves exactly what I was saying. International numbers were good but hardly amazing for the first two movies of the franchise, and even then was Asia offering a surprisingly high percentage of the number for its market share at that time. The third and fourth one then blew up bigtime thangs to 3D and further huge jumps in Asia, even when they were already on the downswing domestically, exactly the things I was talking about.

 

The Dark Knight and Dark Knight Rises is another example where the earlier movie wasn't quite as big internationally, thus allowing plenty of room to grow, which in turn makes it anything but a proper comparison for a sequel to a huge movie like Jurassic World. Simply put, you have to look at which movie was the big one, and judge the sequels depending on that, including factoring in price development and exchange rates as well as significant market-developments in the meantime. JW, just like TFA, was already huge from the get go. Any franchise were the first part wasn't comparable to that isn't a valid comparison. Growth can happen when you have a small to mid-sized hit, sequels plummet when coming of a truly gigantic movie, unless very unique circumstances counteract the drop, like China going from middling market to be far away the top international market. This is also quite evident when you look at the fact that The Avengers came out before China truly exploded, while Age of Ultron came out afterwards. While JW came out in the same year as Age of Ultron, thus having little chance to see a giant leap in China with further sequels. Especially when those sequels are not the culmination of the whole franchise, like with Infinity War.

 

You can ignore reality all you want, but that won't change it.

 

Well ok first off even when you take china's increase away it still was only a 18% drop from AOU to Avengers. Secondly the ER was way better in 2012, in most markets AOU didn't drops a lot but that is counter acted by shitty ER. 

EU: 1.32 to 1.11          19% diff

Br: 0.53 to 0.34           56% diff

Mex: 0.076 to 0.065    17% diff

Pound: 1.63 to 1.54     6% diff

Russia: 0.034 to 0.0197   72.6% diff

Only main markets with better ER was SK: +5.6%.

You get the point. Also TLJ and JW FK both had 2/3 years of market expansion.

JW did 229m in China, this one 3 years later might not match it. So it is not a given to increase in China.

AOU did 240m in China, IW 3 years later does $378m and Avengers did $86m.

You point out that IW is the accumulation of 18 movies, still 3 month before it opened most people were talking about a mild 30m - 50m increase in China. It was not a given that it would increase, it did because of great reception, hype from OS and DOM, great marketing, trailers.

 

Difference between Avengers and AOU (with out china increase) is $267m = A 17.6% drop.

Now ER: +26.8m Brazil, +23m Europe, +8.66m Mex, +4.6m UK, +24.9m Russia, SK -4.4m.

Totalling this gets us: 83.56m extra for AOU. So 267-83.56 = $184m (Rounded up) = A 12.12% drop

 

So even with suptracting the increase in China it still only dropped 17.6% (half of TLJ and FK (maybe), if we adjust for ER it only dropped 12.12%.

Avengers age of ultron is a valid case.

 

And if you tell me that ow Avengers increased in expanding markets, thats not impressive it got saved. Well yeah the growing markets DECREASED for TLJ big time, it coudn't even grow from meh numbers in markets that are expanding, thats even worse, that is like 10 time worse. The Europe decrease for TLJ is completely understandable, but in Asia it should have increased, it is not that hard to increase in Asia. I mean you dismiss China for AOU because it gave so much more and saved it. But TLJ had exactly the same chances like AOU (well only 2 years of growth for TLJ but still) but instead of doing better it just bombed. 

Forgot Australia: 0.8 to 1.05 a 31% diff about $9.6m

 

Edited June 18, 2018 by pepsa

[baumer]

I've been reading that some (not many but some) think the opening in China is bad.  How so?  It increased by 20% from the last time it was in China.  And if this does finish with 800 international, including China, and even if it only finishes with 400 in the US, that still gives it about 75% of JW.  People might forget how big the last one was especially when you consider that it was such a surprise.  So I don't see the doom and gloom.

 

And I know we are in a different box office era now, but @Thrylos 7, this was common in the 70's-90's for sequels to decrease, especially when the original was so huge.

 

Empire Strikes Back

Godfather 2

Jaws 2

Temple of Doom 

Back to the Future 2

 

All of these decreased significantly and the originals were not divisive at all.

[pepsa]

@George Parr 

If we look at the drop in LC for Australia it's 25%: AOU: 40m lc and A1: 53.2m LC.

UK: £48.3m to £53m 8.9% drop

France: 31m EU to 30m EU 3% increase

Germany: 27.7m EU to 24.9m 11% increase

Japan ER was 53% better for A1, a drop of 11.2% in LC.

Russia and Brazil both increased in LC.

 

The point is AOU almost didn't lose any ground OS some small drop and the only real big drop of major country was Australia with a 25% drop.

And lets be real the worst drop was DOM with 26.4%. AOU didn't decrease OS in LC even if you subtract the China gross. 

 

Btw TLJ had a ER advantage over TFA in:

Brazil 20%

Japan 7.2%

France 8.8%

Spain 8.8%

Germany 8.8%

Italy 8.8%

Australia 6.2%

Russia: 22%

And all other EU countries.

 

TFA only had a better ER in UK up 11.4%

 

TLJ was down 37% OS, with better ER so down even more in LC.

TLJ was down 33.8% DOM. 

So AOU down 17.6% OS - China with worse ER than the first one. Maybe a very small decrease in LC, although in most it increased.

 

 

 

 

 

[pepsa]

55 minutes ago, baumer said:

I've been reading that some (not many but some) think the opening in China is bad.  How so?  It increased by 20% from the last time it was in China.  And if this does finish with 800 international, including China, and even if it only finishes with 400 in the US, that still gives it about 75% of JW.  People might forget how big the last one was especially when you consider that it was such a surprise.  So I don't see the doom and gloom.

 

And I know we are in a different box office era now, but @Thrylos 7, this was common in the 70's-90's for sequels to decrease, especially when the original was so huge.

 

Empire Strikes Back

Godfather 2

Jaws 2

Temple of Doom 

Back to the Future 2

 

All of these decreased significantly and the originals were not divisive at all.

JW is doing fine, it opened bigger in most expanding markets (just like china) but WoM isn't as good, China got frontloaded so legs won't be great. WOM of JW was actualy very very very good in most Asian markets. China's 4-day OW is $146m, that is  great OW! And might match the fire one but won't do much more. 

 

800m OS and $400m DOM gives it 1.2B and down 28.4%, this would be very good. Might be a little less. Maybe China's hold is great next week and the drop can be a bit smaller.  All in all dropping 28% woudn't be bad, 35% would be a bit worse But dropping 37% with on average 6% better ER is bad. Btw with out the ER difference TLJ dropped 40.7% OS.

EDIT: the ER diff was more like 4% so 39.5% drop OS.

 

Btw I am not trying to hate on SW, I love SW as a franchise and want them to be succesful, I watched every new SW in Cinema.

I am just saying from a buisiness prospective: dropping 40.7% OS isn't great.  

 

 

Edited June 18, 2018 by pepsa

[baumer]

We're also in the middle of the World Cup.  So the numbers will be off, no doubt.

[pepsa]

19 minutes ago, baumer said:

We're also in the middle of the World Cup.  So the numbers will be off, no doubt.

Plus Germany was underest so actuals might go up for JW:FK