5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[filmnerdjamie]

I don't see Deadpool 2 increasing domestically. 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

 

 

 

I don't know what's more impressive: the evolution of my forecasts or the fact you dug all these up  

[Zakiyyah6]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Bumblebee is likely doing sub $100M domestic.

Yeah I really don't see that film doing well.  it's not that spin offs can't do better than its main line series, as Deadpool has shown us,  I'm just not convinced that anyone wants to see a BumbleBee Movie.  

[a2k]

Cars3 put on the breaks worst than expected. Was thinking 58% drop at most. Went from 24 to 9 (-62.5%)....in 0 seconds.

Edited July 2, 2017 by a2knet

[KeepItU25071906]

I'm sure, that WW actually has a lesser drop on Sunday, than WB's estimate number 

[XO21]

3 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Pirates 5 seem to have opened very good in Japan, 10M+, what may mean $100M Japan domestic total is possible, what will take Pirates 5 to $800M+

 

according to these calculations $800m means matching Pirates 4 with current exchange rates...wow

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18043-adjusting-exchange-rates-first-post-updated-with-jasons-new-list/?page=8

Edited July 2, 2017 by XO21

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Actually i can see these movies coexist. Han Solo beeing a space adeventure, Deadpool Superhero, but also Comedy, Incredibles an animated film and JW a creature feature. They're all quite different. Deadpool has the advantage of the comedy/satirical aspect that really sets it apart from most other SH films i think.

Yup. That's how I feel. I only brought up the point that Deadpool 2 could hinder the other films because so many folks think the other films are going to effect it and thus it'll decrease which may very well be true but if Deadpool 2 is well received like the first one was then it can go the other way too. 

 

I need @baumerto come join me in being a Deadpool 2 loonie. 

[grim22]

16 minutes ago, Finnick said:

WONDER WOMAN WITH $15.6M, DOWN 37%,

 

 

Guessing WW comes in at 16M with actuals if the Saturday number provided by Rth is right. 350M on Monday, 360-363M by Thursday. Just following Suicide Squad dailies from that point gets it to 386-389M (which includes a 65% drop next weekend), following MoS dailies (which includes a 72% drop next weekend) gets it to 384M.

 

Awful number for Cars 3, DM3 pretty much slashed it's tires. Cars 3 versus Transformers final gross will be close.

[Zakiyyah6]

Cars 3 was always bound to have a horrible drop this weekend because of the competition and the word of mouth is not exactly stellar.

[bruchav]

Just now, filmnerdjamie said:

I don't see Deadpool 2 increasing domestically. 

 

Well, Deadpool 2 does not even need to increase to make $ 350m +.

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Pirates 5 seem to have opened very good in Japan, 10M+, what may mean $100M Japan domestic total is possible, what will take Pirates 5 to $800M+

At the very least around 780. So again hopeful about a sixth one...with Davy Jones maybe? Please make it happen Pirate Lords.

Edited July 2, 2017 by a2knet

[YM!]

On 4/1/2017 at 5:50 PM, WrathOfHan said:

*opens Snapchat*

*sees prom photo*

 

 

IS THAT HER PROM DATE???????????????????

 

 

DID I GET REJECTED FOR THAT??????????????

 

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't know what's more impressive: the evolution of my forecasts or the fact you dug all these up  

 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Han Solo and The Incredibles 2 are guaranteed to do well but I would hold off on thinking Bumblebee is going to be a big deal.

It's going to get absolutely massacred with that schedule late May/June is quite frankly ridiculous, some stuff needs to move. There's no way Han Solo, Deadpool 2, Jurassic World 2, and Incredibles 2 isn't waaaaaay too many mega heavy hitters in less than a month span.  Then you have stuff like Bumblebee and Ocean's Eight in there too. Not to mention Infinity War at the beginning of May will already have done huge business. JW should move to July 13 (Hotel Transylvania needs to GTFO summer), Deadpool 2 should move away from Han Solo and into JW2's spot (June 22), and Bumblebee can go to August where it might actually have a chance of outperforming expectations. 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, YourMother said:

 

 

[meriodejaneiro]

Just now, XO21 said:

 

according to these calculations $800m means matching Pirates 4 with current exchange rates...wow

In fact, at current rates, Pirates 5 was 16% ahead of Pirates 4 and some 35-40% ahead of Pirates 3.  Thing is that with 2011 exchange rates, Pirates 4 went to 800M overseas only, while Pirates 5 might get 640M overseas. 

[grim22]

8 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

 

 

 

 

Also

 

 

On 6/29/2017 at 0:30 PM, WrathOfHan said:

 

WW:

 

2.5M Thursday (-10%)

 

4M Friday (+60%)

5.5M Saturday (+38%)

5.2M Sunday (-5%)

14.7M Weekend, 41% drop

 

On 6/29/2017 at 0:39 PM, WrathOfHan said:

For once I'm too high on WW  

 

[baumer]

18 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

So WW has not had a single weekend-to-weekend drop that goes above 45 %...

Fantastic.

 

I crunch some numbers earlier and if it continues Falling week-to-week by about 35% it should get to 390 without any dollar theater expansion or double features and not even taking into consideration Labor Day might give it a boost as well. At this point I think 400 million is a 50-50 shot.

[DAR]

Bumbled I could see playing out like the Mummy next summer

[YM!]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

[Zakiyyah6]

The first Deadpool made like 363mil. I think the chances of the sequel increasing are pretty freaking slim. Not impossible but it's going to be tough especially with a film like Deadpool that acts more like a comedy than most superhero films.