5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[baumer]

14 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The fudge doesn't really happen often or have that much of an impact.  There are only a small few relevant examples of it happening that mattered with Spectre being the most obvious.  

 

Agree 100%. You are correct in that there's only a few scattered examples but when they do fudge it looks so ridiculously obvious. The Harry Potter and Terminator Salvation thing was another big one and as I mentioned that's basically when we really started getting into the fudge thing. Also of course Puerto Rico started a couple of months before that with Transformers 2.

[a2k]

72.4 + 14 = 86.4 4-day  ....  So DM3 needs 13.7 on Tuesday to do 100 5-day.

 

Considering Discount Tue is not available on July 4th, could be tough to do 13.7 after a 14 Monday.

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

With this being the 35th Spider-Man film there's no way it's getting the same kind of legs that Wonder Woman has not even close. I could see it getting over 3 but that's about it.

 

I'm going to have to disagree here, Baumer.

 

It's been a long time since we've seen a good Spider-man movie. Most teens and all children have never seen a good Spider-man movie in theaters.

 

Also the OW is weakened by the fact that most people have no clue the latest Spider-man movie is one of the best. This bodes well for WOM and legs.

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

I'm going to have to disagree here, Baumer.

 

It's been a long time since we've seen a good Spider-man movie. Most teens and all children have never seen a good Spider-man movie in theaters.

 

Also the OW is weakened by the fact that most people have no clue the latest Spider-man movie is one of the best. This bodes well for WOM and legs.

 

I think it's buzz and social media has been very high all along and it's not likely people are not aware of it's reviews. It's 'want to see' has been creeping up at a good pace on RT.

Also IM will undoubtedly front-load things. 

I too don't see much more than 3x if GA's reception matches the critics's reception.

(115 ow / 350 high-end imo)

Edited July 4, 2017 by a2knet

[miketheavenger]

So if the movies increase or even just stay flat today, that probably means that Wednesday will see some particularly nasty drops, right?

[baumer]

49 minutes ago, a2knet said:

72.4 + 14 = 86.4 4-day  ....  So DM3 needs 13.7 on Tuesday to do 100 5-day.

 

Considering Discount Tue is not available on July 4th, could be tough to do 13.7 after a 14 Monday.

 

Canadian discount Tuesday's have been around a lot longer than the US. And our discount Tuesday's have always meant big increases at the box office. I fully expect to see some kind of an increase on Tuesday.

[baumer]

As for Spidey legs only the first went north of 3x. And with Iron Man being in this there will be a lot of upfront demand to see it so I don't see it going past a 3x.

[POTUS 2020]

58 minutes ago, a2knet said:

72.4 + 14 = 86.4 4-day  ....  So DM3 needs 13.7 on Tuesday to do 100 5-day.

 

Considering Discount Tue is not available on July 4th, could be tough to do 13.7 after a 14 Monday.

On 7/4/2006 movies dropped 20% on average. 

[RamblinRed]

Wonder Woman's run has been amazing. I think we will know in 5 days whether it will make 400. Have to see how SM:H hits it. I feel like SM:H has a good shot a breaking out bigger than we are thinking. DOM has been pretty quiet since WW release and SM:H reviews are coming in almost identical to WW in terms of percentage liking it and by how much.

 

Will be interesting to see DM3's Tuesday number tomorrow. Deadline is only forecasting 11-12M. Which would mean sub 100 for the 5 day. I would never have guessed that. i frankly don't see DM3 having good legs. I know there isn't much competition, but there hasn't been anything in its run so far suggesting good WOM and it's reviews have been the worst of the series (as has the audience scores).

 

[a2k]

27 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Canadian discount Tuesday's have been around a lot longer than the US. And our discount Tuesday's have always meant big increases at the box office. I fully expect to see some kind of an increase on Tuesday.

Yeah Canada's DT should help. Singled digit bumps or singled digit drops could happen.

[a2k]

23 minutes ago, POTUS said:

On 7/4/2006 movies dropped 20% on average. 

Canada's disc Tue should soften things this time around.

[baumer]

31 minutes ago, POTUS said:

On 7/4/2006 movies dropped 20% on average. 

 

No discount tuesdays back then.

[narniadis]

Ugh DM3 continues to drop at least I have Baby Driver's numbers to be thrilled with (and WW closing in on 400m.)

[narniadis]

Just now, baumer said:

 

No discount tuesdays back then.

 

Yes - for all of the newer folks (last couple-3 years) discount Tuesdays didn't exist in a large noticeable capacity until around 2008 and didn't really become a huge force in the US until the last 5 years so take that into account when considering historical comps. Once upon a time slight dips on Tuesdays with holds or even smaller dips on Wednesday was the norm with a small increase on Thursday before the Friday pick up.

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

No discount tuesdays back then.

 

Correct, but I don't think many theaters are running that today.  If anything, it is treated as Holiday pricing.  

 

[The Dark Alfred]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

 

I'm going to have to disagree here, Baumer.

 

It's been a long time since we've seen a good Spider-man movie. Most teens and all children have never seen a good Spider-man movie in theaters.

 

Also the OW is weakened by the fact that most people have no clue the latest Spider-man movie is one of the best. This bodes well for WOM and legs.

We don't know if it's one of the best of the Spidey films. It's not gonna have a 3x multiplier. Gonna perform like a yood Marvel hit, but doubt it will pass SM3.

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

The fudge doesn't really happen often or have that much of an impact.  There are only a small few relevant examples of it happening that mattered with Spectre being the most obvious.  

Transformers. Twice. Hail Paramount.

 

Passengers and Spectre. Sony. Twice. 

 

Godzilla and Edge of Tomorrow. Warner Bros. Twice.

 

I guess it is more used to reach a certain milestone that will give them more money for TV rights and other stuff.

[narniadis]

27 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Correct, but I don't think many theaters are running that today.  If anything, it is treated as Holiday pricing.  

 

 

But I think Baumer's point was that it's become so huge in Canada (which of course is not celebrating a holiday) that it should outweight a good portion of the lack on the US side.

 

I'm a bit skeptical of that myself mainly because not only does the US not have much in the way of Discounts today but the 4th is not a "huge" movie going day like Christmas or New Years - we are out and about with friends at dinners and watching fireworks in the evening so its the extra days around it that are beneficial but not the holiday itself.

[DMan7]

What is this 'Tomato Law' people are talking about>

[Southern European Guy]

2 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

What is this 'Tomato Law' people are talking about>

If your movie is Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, you succeed.

If your movie is Rotten, you pray to the Gods of Overseas box office for help.