5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[Nova]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Yeah that spent a almost as much as  a studio film usually does on horror - $30m

 

http://deadline.com/2017/06/cars-3-all-eyez-on-me-tupac-shakur-rough-night-scarlett-johansson-mandy-moore-47-meters-below-1202114764/

 

 

Thank you for this. 

 

So 47 Meters Down actually had a similar P&A as The Shallows. It was actually more. I remember last year Sony did a great job marketing The Shallows, Don't Breathe and Sausage Party with P&As in the high teens to mid twenties because they used a lot of digital and social media marketing to cheapen things. Made things really profitable for them. 

 

But 47 Meters Down had "no" marketing. 

 

Either way its have a great run and its gonna be a profit for the studio. Well deserved after they took a chance on it. 

[The Panda]

I haven't been able to find any statistically significant correlation between BO gross and Tomatometer.  Even when I've factored in genre, budget, and so forth.

 

Surveys that I have seen also only have shown tomatometer playing a factor for young white males.

 

Maybe it's become more of a factor this year, and I'm also not denying that it can help or hurt a movie (especially if it's a low budget niche movie) but it's not what's causing movies to bomb or break out.  We see tracking evidence of this even before reviews.

 

There's a better likelihood that good movies are easier to market, more likely to get good reviews and more likely to have good WoM.

Edited July 1, 2017 by The Panda

[CJohn]

Just now, The Panda said:

I haven't been able to find any statistically significant correlation between BO gross and Tomatometer.  Even when I've factored in genre, budget, and so forth.

 

Surveys that I have seen also only have shown tomatometer playing a factor for young white males.

 

Maybe it's become more of a factor this year, and I'm also not denying that it can help or hurt a movie (especially if it's a low budget niche movie) but it's not what's causing movies to bomb or break out.  We see tracking evidence of this even before reviews.

Oh, it is. The Tomato is the Law and the good Americans follow it. 

[Nova]

I think RT can help bring awareness to a film that's getting good reviews and thus help its OW but in the end I've always believed that box office depends on two things: 

1) Marketing (good marketing that is!) 

2) Word of Mouth 

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Also, by that logic Baby Driver should be exploding, not performing marginally better than a typical Edgar Wright film.

 

Well Edgar wright output was already critically acclaimed, so you are comparing from previous high score RT output too.

 

Baby Driver: 97%

World end: 89%

Scott pilgrim: 81%

Hot Fuzz: 91%

Shaun: 92%

 

The difference factor would be having even an higher score than usual and now RT being more important.

 

One think is certain, it is not doing marginally better, it look like it will be doing 100+% better than is usual (we tend to forget how low is filmography was):

 

Date	Title (click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Rank
6/28/17	Baby Driver	Sony	$9,029,105	3,226	n/a	3,226	5
8/23/13	The World's End	Focus	$26,004,851	1,553	$8,811,790	1,551	2
8/13/10	Scott Pilgrim vs. the World	Uni.	$31,524,275	2,820	$10,609,795	2,818	1
4/20/07	Hot Fuzz	Rog.	$23,637,265	1,272	$5,848,464	825	3
9/24/04	Shaun of the Dead	Rog.	$13,542,874	675	$3,330,781	607	4

 

Is average first weekend is about 7m, is average dbo is about 27m, it look like it will be doing over 17m first weekeend and maybe a shot at over 55m dbo.

 

It could be doubling those average of is filmography, almost certainly for the first weekend.

 

Now a lot of that is probably having is most audience friendly high concept and I would imagine audience friendly trailer, with the lot of music and cars chase element, but it would not be surprising if it is overperforming over is tracking thanks to that pristine RT score.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

I think RT can help bring awareness to a film that's getting good reviews and thus help its OW but in the end I've always believed that box office depends on two things: 

1) Marketing (good marketing that is!) 

2) Word of Mouth 

Both things 47MD had. The mixed Tomato only allowed it to have a meh/ok OW, but now the WOM is doing the rest of the work and pushing it to a stronger total.

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

I think RT can help bring awareness to a film that's getting good reviews and thus help its OW but in the end I've always believed that box office depends on two things: 

1) Marketing (good marketing that is!) 

2) Word of Mouth 

 

This is true.  There's too many cases, even this year, of RT holding no effect for me to believe it has any more than a marginal effect on the Box Office.  I think the cases where critics help or hurt is when it comes to movies like Baby Driver or Get Out, that don't have much awareness but reviews help to get it out on the front pages of the trades (and work as a marketing tool).

[MCKillswitch123]

Haven't been following the weekend thread but can anyone drop the latest Baby Driver and Baby Oil In The Crotch Driver (aka Wonder Woman) numbers?

[Blankments]

Baby Driver is essentially an action movie with @Ethan Hunt as the lead. Kinda disappointed with it but it's still pretty good.

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Well Edgar wright output was already critically acclaimed, so you are comparing from previous high score RT output too.

 

Baby Driver: 97%

World end: 89%

Scott pilgrim: 81%

Hot Fuzz: 91%

Shaun: 92%

 

The difference factor would be having even an higher score than usual and now RT being more important.

 

One think is certain, it is not doing marginally better, it look like it will be doing 100+% better than is usual (we tend to forget how low is filmography was):

 

Date	Title (click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Rank
6/28/17	Baby Driver	Sony	$9,029,105	3,226	n/a	3,226	5
8/23/13	The World's End	Focus	$26,004,851	1,553	$8,811,790	1,551	2
8/13/10	Scott Pilgrim vs. the World	Uni.	$31,524,275	2,820	$10,609,795	2,818	1
4/20/07	Hot Fuzz	Rog.	$23,637,265	1,272	$5,848,464	825	3
9/24/04	Shaun of the Dead	Rog.	$13,542,874	675	$3,330,781	607	4

 

Is average first weekend is about 7m, is average dbo is about 27m, it look like it will be doing over 17m first weekeend and maybe a shot at over 55m dbo.

 

It could be doubling those average of is filmography, almost certainly for the first weekend.

 

Now a lot of that is probably having is most audience friendly high concept and I would imagine audience friendly trailer, with the lot of music and cars chase element, but it would not be surprising if it is overperforming over is tracking thanks to that pristine RT score.

 

I fail to see how RT plays a role here?  You said yourself all of Edgar Wright's movies are acclaimed on RT, if so Baby Driver shouldn't be his first breakout.

 

You're looking at single data points that fit your story, but that's a flawed way to see if there's even a correlation (not to even be getting at causation).

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Haven't been following the weekend thread but can anyone drop the latest Baby Driver and Baby Oil In The Crotch Driver (aka Wonder Woman) numbers?

BD: 5.3-6.3M

WW: 15.5-16M Weekend

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Haven't been following the weekend thread but can anyone drop the latest Baby Driver and Baby Oil In The Crotch Driver (aka Wonder Woman) numbers?

http://deadline.com/2017/06/despicable-me-3-baby-driver-the-house-july-4th-weekend-box-office-independence-day-1202122599/

[CJohn]

Just now, The Panda said:

 

I fail to see how RT plays a role here?  You said yourself all of Edgar Wright's movies are acclaimed on RT, if so Baby Driver shouldn't be his first breakout.

 

You're looking at single data points that fit your story, but that's a flawed way to see if there's even a correlation (not to even be getting at causation).

The Tomato Law only went into full effect this year. It was on trial last year. It had pretty much no effect before that.

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Baby Driver is essentially an action movie with @Ethan Hunt as the lead. Kinda disappointed with it but it's still pretty good.

 

3 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Baby Driver is essentially an action movie with @Ethan Hunt as the lead. Kinda disappointed with it but it's still pretty good.

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Baby Driver is essentially an action movie with @Ethan Hunt as the lead. Kinda disappointed with it but it's still pretty good.

No, if it had Ethan as the lead, Baby would consistently be conflicted about staying with Debora because she's way too supportive of him. In a more tragic version, she'd be fucking other guys behind his back.

Edited July 1, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[CoolioD1]

4 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Baby Driver is essentially an action movie with @Ethan Hunt as the lead. Kinda disappointed with it but it's still pretty good.

isn't scott pilgrim more of an ethan hunt thing? (i'm doing a lazy 'ethan and his exes' joke. idk, someone else connect those dots)

[Jonwo]

35 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Nope.  The date it opens is going to be great.  Market will be completely starved at that point.  

 

It has the advantage of being a known title, most people have either read the book or saw the miniseries and the response to the first trailer was great. I expect WB will release another trailer at Comic Con then promote the crap out of it throughout August. 

 

$40m+ OW would not surprise me, if not higher. 

[Ethan Hunt]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

No, if it had Ethan as the lead, Baby would consistently be conflicted about staying with Debora because she's way too supportive of him.

 

[aabattery]

I don't like the thought of Ethan being with Lily James so if we can nip this take in the bud I'd appreciate it.

[Blankments]

As for Baby Driver, idk. It's good, I guess. Kinda disappointed with it tbh but it's still a solid A-/B+ film. Don't think it will catch on with the GA