Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65

[Zakiyyah6]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

out of likes.

 

read on THR that warners ignored negotiating wondr2 with patty because they didn't think wondr1 would be such a big success and patty's stock would go high. post wondr1 she had the upper hand in negotiations.

 

"Warner Bros. was surprised by the success of 'Wonder Woman' - and they'll have to pay for it"

http://www.businessinsider.in/Warner-Bros-was-surprised-by-the-success-of-Wonder-Woman-and-theyll-have-to-pay-for-it/articleshow/59074995.cms

 

THR

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/wonder-woman-director-patty-jenkins-not-signed-sequel-1010845

I do believe that WB were surprised by it's success. Any studio would have greenlit a sequel by now. I don't mind that they didn't sign her for a sequel because she wasn't a big-time director at the time. So I understand it.

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

if u look at the fri to sat performance, it's closer to ss and tdkr than other movies (and both ss and tdkr are unique reasons for the sat performance - tmobile and the theater shooting).

but i am still with you that spidey should cross 2.5 easily. am expecting 2.6-2.7x.

I mean, 27% is a hefty dip in sales but it ain't Suicide Squad's 41% drop from Friday to Saturday.

[KJsooner]

JFC SMH is doing more than 2.2-2.3 multiplier, you clowns need to lay off the crack pipe. I agree with baumer it's headed more towards a 2.7-2.8 multiplier.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Obviously Wonder Woman had great walk up sales as well. I never said that they weren't. This reply confuses me. I wasn't comparing the two in what you replied to, right?

I was under the impression that SM walkups were bigger than Wondr walkups or most CBMs in general. Sorry, maybe didn't follow the comments/conversation properly.

(So your 80-90 ow estimate based on presales seemed low to me. I thought presales themselves hinted at 100+).

 

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Yeah. That's a silly comment. WOM definitely helped Begins along to $205M DOM. Had a very, very nice run for a flick that opened with a $72M five day. It's not a Curse of the Black Pearl run but, hell, ain't much out there that is...

 

Exactly right. Black Pearl had some of the greatest WOM of all-time. Still remember the audience for that movie and it was pretty crazy how people were reacting to the movie. Saw it during 2nd or 3rd weekend, so by that point it was a WOM juggernaut. 

[baumer]

The reaction to Spidey seems quite positive but not overwhelmingly so. 2.7x would be fantastic. I think 2.5 or 2.6 is more realistic since its so frontloaded.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

I was under the impression that SM walkups were bigger than Wondr walkups or most CBMs in general. Sorry, maybe didn't follow the comments/conversation properly.

(So your 80-90 ow estimate based on presales seemed low to me. I thought presales themselves hinted at 100+).

 

I think both had very impressive walk ups. I think, sans walk ups, both would've opened less than $100M. Deadline gave Spidey an 83% walk up rate. I imagine if someone looked up the same for Wonder Woman it was likely crazy high too. It's really impressive for both major releases. That's all I mean. I personally think that that's a good sign for Spider-man going forward this month in taking full advantage of summer days.

[baumer]

5 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

JFC SMH is doing more than 2.2-2.3 multiplier, you clowns need to lay off the crack pipe. I agree with baumer it's headed more towards a 2.7-2.8 multiplier.

 

Who said 2.2 or 2.3?

[KJsooner]

Just now, baumer said:

 

Who said 2.2 or 2.3?

 

FantasticBeasts

[cannastop]

26 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Walk ups are important because it given presales, Spidey should've done something like $85M to $90M. If all these walk up spread word, it'll impact the rest of the run positively. Usually that isn't seen immediately on OW but on the weekdays and second weekend.

Didn't Spidey have over $15m in previews? Doesn't that mean that this weekend underperformed?

[Subzero]

11 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I do believe that WB were surprised by it's success. Any studio would have greenlit a sequel by now. I don't mind that they didn't sign her for a sequel because she wasn't a big-time director at the time. So I understand it.

 

I think they may have, Patty kinda leaked it a couple of weeks back. We'll see if they announce it during the Comic-con.

[ZeeSoh]

19 minutes ago, a2knet said:

The persales themselves were beating WONDR.

 

Presales according to our BOT source was pretty much neck and neck with WW from the start till the end. That is what led many to predict a 100ish OW for SMH. 

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Didn't Spidey have over $15m in previews? Doesn't that mean that this weekend underperformed?

 

Just think of Spider-Man homecoming like a Twilight or Harry Potter film but not quite that front-loaded. The last three Spider-Man films were disappointments and now this Spider-Man unites with the MCU and Iron Man is in it. So it far from underperformed it was just front-loaded. If it had opened to a 40 million Friday instead of 50 and still made 117 million would you say it underperform? Of course you wouldn't.

[Subzero]

4 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

 

FantasticBeasts

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Who said 2.2 or 2.3?

 

Yeah no way this is doing a 2.2x ..

the worse I can see is 2.5x+, I was touting it for a 2.8x+ due to good word of mouth.

Although due to the frontloadedness, the multipliers get skewer a little bit ....

[a2k]

Preview to OW multiplier for June-Aug originals:

WONDR 9.39x (June) .... 3.9x+ final multi assuming 404 dom

GOTG1 8.42x (Aug) .... 3.5x+

Ant-Man 8.94x (July) ... 3.1x+

SM:H 7.60x (July)

Suicide Squad 6.52x (Aug) ... 2.43x+

 

edit: added SS

 

Edited July 9, 2017 by a2knet

[Cochofles]

3 hours ago, KJsooner said:

 

Tell me almighty one with your gift of foresight what will the movie end up with domestically? 

 

I swear. I love WW, but I kinda wish now it was a massive failure, bc all these D.C. Twerps come out of the woodwork and start laying it on the mcu movies. Did they forget SS and BvS were massive disappointments? I'm hoping Thor ragnarok outgrosses JL. It'd be hilarious.

 

Can we take the DC V Marvel crap to the cesspool  forum where it belongs? http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20455-franchise-wars-marvel-vs-dc-vs-star-wars-vs-etc-rip-transformers/

 

[Zakiyyah6]

7 minutes ago, Subzero said:

 

I think they may have, Patty kinda leaked it a couple of weeks back. We'll see if they announce it during the Comic-con.

I'm hoping they announce it at comic con.

[FantasticBeasts]

11 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

 

FantasticBeasts

I said 2.5 is more likely...

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Didn't Spidey have over $15m in previews? Doesn't that mean that this weekend underperformed?

Yes. But, remember, the preview number was expected to be $10M at 11PM on the East Coast. Then, 13M a few hours later. Then, it was $15M+. There were a lot of walk ups. There a was similar situation on Friday. It was expected to be $42M... $45M... $48... $49M... Then, finally, was $50M+. Presales showed a smaller OW. Entering the weekend, from what I recall, presales were running about 45% of that of Guardians Vol. 2. Well, it's OW DOM is more than 45% of Guardians Vol. 2. The OW is not a total win. It's a good start and has some nice footnotes that may lead to decent legs. We'll have to wait and see...

[Subzero]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Just think of Spider-Man homecoming like a Twilight or Harry Potter film but not quite that front-loaded. The last three Spider-Man films were disappointments and now this Spider-Man unites with the MCU and Iron Man is in it. So it far from underperformed it was just front-loaded. If it had opened to a 40 million Friday instead of 50 and still made 117 million would you say it underperform? Of course you wouldn't.

 

Talking about Frontloadedness, BvS takes that (1st weekend) crown.