a2k Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 He knows the diff between Fri bumps in early June vs Mid July. He knows they are significantly different. He puts out over optimistic calculations just to get a rise out of people. I won't say who he is. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 3 hours ago, iJackSparrow said: Spidey got this. Wed numbers made me even more confident than I was past Monday. I think the last person to say they were "even more confident" in a prediction was GiantCalBears, and we all know how well that went. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, DamienRoc said: I think the last person to say they were "even more confident" in a prediction was GiantCalBears, and we all know how well that went. Of course, he was also the last one who believed "there was not a remote chance in hell":)... Anyway, for anyone looking for cheap tickets, Fandango upped their normal $3/off ticket offer to $5/off ticket offer with code Androidpay3 this week. One per account and you have to check out through Androidpay...but $5 off is $5 off...suckered me into finally getting my DM3 tickets for next Wednesday night...now I can consider my kids "done" for the summer, except for catching up with Captain Underpants if they want at our 2nd run theater (not sure they will want, but that will be on the August schedule:)...and now, I'll be able to find a few movies for me (other than supers:)... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gokai Red Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 (edited) So I remember a user on here used to do "countdowns" for movies and reaching certain milestones, but I haven't seen them lately. If you guys don't mind, I would like to take on that responsibility, and keep you guys updated on certain movies as they go on to make money and reach certain milestones. Feel free to suggest more milestones for me to keep track of! Spider-Man: Homecoming Current Gross: $154, 185, 220 The Amazing Spider-Man 2: $202, 853, 933 ($48, 468, 713 remaining) The Amazing Spider-Man: $262, 030, 663 ($107, 845, 443 remaining) Guardians of the Galaxy (highest non-sequel MCU): $333, 176, 600 ($178, 991, 380 remaining) Spider-Man 3: $336, 530, 303 ($182, 345, 083 remaining) Wonder Woman Current Gross: $372, 552, 849 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $385, 954, 831 ($13, 401, 982 remaining) Quadruple Century Mark: $400, 000, 000 ($27, 447, 151 remaining) 4x Multiplier: $413, 005, 884 ($40, 453, 035 remaining) Red Text indicates that the milestone in question is a stationary target. Blue Text indicates that the milestone in question is a moving target. Edited July 14, 2017 by Gokai Red 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said: Of course, he was also the last one who believed "there was not a remote chance in hell":)... Anyway, for anyone looking for cheap tickets, Fandango upped their normal $3/off ticket offer to $5/off ticket offer with code Androidpay3 this week. One per account and you have to check out through Androidpay...but $5 off is $5 off...suckered me into finally getting my DM3 tickets for next Wednesday night...now I can consider my kids "done" for the summer, except for catching up with Captain Underpants if they want at our 2nd run theater (not sure they will want, but that will be on the August schedule:)...and now, I'll be able to find a few movies for me (other than supers:)... He didn't have complete numbers to go on. We do. Spider-man did not hold well enough from Saturday on for it to indicate that it would have that kind of hold. Spider-man would have to do something that has never been done in the last 15 years in July....and that's have a film open to more than 100 million and fall less than 50% in the second weekend. So I'm pretty sure and confident that there is no way in hell it's falling less than 50%. In fact, it's been following Minions very closely and therefore in my estimation, it will fall about 57% this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PPG Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 believe or not. I don't think homecoming can even top Spider man 3 in DOM number without adj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 WONDR not taking a big hit in theater count Movie Distributor Theaters Previous Theaters Change Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony Pictures 4,348 4,348 0 Despicable Me 3 Universal 4,155 4,535 -380 War for the Planet of the Apes 20th Century Fox 4,022 new Baby Driver Sony Pictures 3,043 3,226 -183 Wonder Woman Warner Bros. 2,744 3,091 -347 The Big Sick Lionsgate 2,597 326 +2,271 Transformers: The Last Knight Paramount Pictures 2,323 3,241 -918 Wish Upon Broad Green Pictures 2,250 new Cars 3 Walt Disney 2,049 2,702 -653 The House Warner Bros. 1,633 3,134 -1,501 47 Meters Down Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures 1,032 1,740 -708 The Beguiled Focus Features 725 941 -216 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Walt Disney 448 1,039 -591 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 Walt Disney 399 660 -261 The Mummy Universal 397 1,045 -648 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie 20th Century Fox 277 407 -130 Beatriz at Dinner Roadside Attractions 204 413 -209 All Eyez on Me Lionsgate 195 599 -404 5 movies loosing 500+ theaters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrimFandango Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 (edited) 3 minutes ago, a2knet said: WONDR not taking a big hit in theater count Movie Distributor Theaters Previous Theaters Change Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony Pictures 4,348 4,348 0 Despicable Me 3 Universal 4,155 4,535 -380 War for the Planet of the Apes 20th Century Fox 4,022 new Baby Driver Sony Pictures 3,043 3,226 -183 Wonder Woman Warner Bros. 2,744 3,091 -347 The Big Sick Lionsgate 2,597 326 +2,271 Transformers: The Last Knight Paramount Pictures 2,323 3,241 -918 Wish Upon Broad Green Pictures 2,250 new Cars 3 Walt Disney 2,049 2,702 -653 The House Warner Bros. 1,633 3,134 -1,501 47 Meters Down Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures 1,032 1,740 -708 The Beguiled Focus Features 725 941 -216 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Walt Disney 448 1,039 -591 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 Walt Disney 399 660 -261 The Mummy Universal 397 1,045 -648 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie 20th Century Fox 277 407 -130 Beatriz at Dinner Roadside Attractions 204 413 -209 All Eyez on Me Lionsgate 195 599 -404 5 movies loosing 500+ theaters. So is Warner Brothers dumping The House to keep theaters available for Wondy? Would make sense. Edited July 14, 2017 by GrimFandango 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 1 hour ago, baumer said: He didn't have complete numbers to go on. We do. Spider-man did not hold well enough from Saturday on for it to indicate that it would have that kind of hold. Spider-man would have to do something that has never been done in the last 15 years in July....and that's have a film open to more than 100 million and fall less than 50% in the second weekend. So I'm pretty sure and confident that there is no way in hell it's falling less than 50%. In fact, it's been following Minions very closely and therefore in my estimation, it will fall about 57% this weekend. Regardless how confident I am. All I'm gonna say is that I will be VERY pleased to see it happening. It will make for some major crow eating around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium George Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 For being the poster with most wrong prediction on bot, ijack, you do brag too much. Gotg 2 didn't open to $180m. Wondy didn't open to $150m. Spidey didn't open to $150m. A broken clock that was right about deadpool. Any film that defies expectation and does gangbuster will be right on the mark of your prediction ijack. 'cos that's what you do. You overpredict. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 1 minute ago, damnitgeorge08 said: For being the poster with most wrong prediction on bot, ijack, you do brag too much. Gotg 2 didn't open to $180m. Wondy didn't open to $150m. Spidey didn't open to $150m. A broken clock that was right about deadpool. Any film that defies expectation and does gangbuster will be right on the mark of your prediction ijack. 'cos that's what you do. You overpredict. I was spot on about WW's DOM numbers tho. I'm one of the very few on the $400m club for that. I'm not denying that I don't overpredict. But there's a method here. Let's see how Thursday and Friday go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PPG Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 16 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said: I was spot on about WW's DOM numbers tho. I'm one of the very few on the $400m club for that. I'm not denying that I don't overpredict. But there's a method here. Let's see how Thursday and Friday go. A broken clock that was right 2 times then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, PPG said: A broken clock that was right 2 times then Also right about GotG Vol. 2's total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teardropmina Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 2 hours ago, Gokai Red said: Wonder Woman Current Gross: $372, 552, 849 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $385, 954, 831 ($13, 401, 982 remaining) Quadruple Century Mark: $400, 000, 000 ($27, 447, 151 remaining) 4x Multiplier: $413, 005, 884 ($40, 453, 035 remaining) Red Text indicates that the milestone in question is a stationary target. Blue Text indicates that the milestone in question is a moving target. if WW gets as much as TSLoP after Day 41, it gets to 400m. if WW gets as much as TDK after Day 41, it gets 4x multi hope for the best scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 1 hour ago, damnitgeorge08 said: For being the poster with most wrong prediction on bot, ijack, you do brag too much. Gotg 2 didn't open to $180m. Wondy didn't open to $150m. Spidey didn't open to $150m. A broken clock that was right about deadpool. Any film that defies expectation and does gangbuster will be right on the mark of your prediction ijack. 'cos that's what you do. You overpredict. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatebox Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 3 hours ago, iJackSparrow said: I'm not denying that I don't overpredict. But there's a method here. There is a method: you just want these films to do really well so you make zealous predictions accordingly. We've all done it at some point, I guess. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 (edited) 5 hours ago, PPG said: believe or not. I don't think homecoming can even top Spider man 3 in DOM number without adj. Homecoming falling short of $336M+ DOM? I'd say you're in the majority with that. Probably come up just over/under $10M short of that number. Edited July 14, 2017 by JohnnyGossamer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the beast Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 How Thursdays Numbers Will Probably Look Like: Apes Previews: $6.8M SMH Thurs: $9.25M DM3: $4.5M BD: $1.53M WW: $1.217M 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 According to my calcs, even accounting for significant front-loading compared to DAWN, WAR could do 75 with 6+ previews ... 6.0 + 24.50 (4.1x) + 25.50 (+4.1%) + 19.10 (-25.0%) = 75.1 for WAR (12.5x the previews), compared to 4.1 + 23.55 (5.7x) + 25.50 (+8.3%) + 19.47 (-23.7%) = 72.6 for DAWN (17.7x the previews) You may be thinking that 75 ow is too much to expect if previews are 6 ... but look at the above highlighted holds compared to DAWN. Have incorporated good deal of front-loading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 It's 3:30 am PST. Deadline didn't care to give early Thu estimates for Dawn probably after Spidey previews were projected inaccurately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.e012939110d2c4eb58cc16297e048d38.jpg)
