Subzero Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Yeah, second weekend drops for CBMs don't tell us much for legs in general unless they're out of the typical 55-65% range. Yeah unfortunately it's getting more and more front loaded ...therefore that second week drop kinda of misleading/steep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: 117.0 x 3.16 = 369.7 Homecoming was more frontloaded than Ant-Man though, so a more realistic multiplier if Homecoming continues to follow Ant-Man would be something between 2.9 and 3.0, let just say 2.95. So... 117.0 x 2.95 = 345.2 Interesting. At this rate I'd be satisfied with anything above 300 m and very happy with anything over 325 m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, grey ghost said: Interesting. At this rate I'd be satisfied with anything above 300 m and very happy with anything over 325 m. I'd be pretty surprised if Homecoming doesn't manage at least $310M+... I'm expecting a finish between $325M and $335M DOM. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, grey ghost said: Interesting. At this rate I'd be satisfied with anything above 300 m and very happy with anything over 325 m. 300 is pretty much do-able, it only requires a 2.6x ...with 325M it requires a 2.8x ... I also think that's do-able but beyond that is asking too much I think with the summer so crowded. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastByTheBay Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 300M+ is likely but how much after is a toss up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Rank LW Title Distributor Theater Count Change % Change Week # > NEW RELEASES 3 - War for the Planet of the Apes Fox 4,022 - - 1 8 - Wish Upon Broad Green Pictures 2,250 - - 1 32 - L'important C'est D'aimer (2017 Re-Release) Rialto 1 - - 1 > EXPANDING 6 18 The Big Sick Lionsgate 2,597 +2,271 +696.6% 4 17 26 Paris Can Wait Sony Classics 177 +46 +35.1% 10 23 32 Maudie Sony Classics 99 +32 +47.8% 11 27 64 A Ghost Story A24 20 +16 +400.0% 2 > NO CHANGE 1 2 Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony / Columbia 4,348 - - 2 29 52 13 Minutes Sony Classics 9 - - 3 31 - A Kind of Loving (2017 re-release) Rialto 1 - - 2 > DECLINING 2 1 Despicable Me 3 Universal 4,155 -380 -8.4% 3 4 4 Baby Driver TriStar 3,043 -183 -5.7% 3 5 6 Wonder Woman Warner Bros. 2,744 -347 -11.2% 7 7 3 Transformers: The Last Knight Paramount 2,323 -918 -28.3% 4 9 7 Cars 3 Buena Vista 2,049 -653 -24.2% 5 10 5 The House Warner Bros. (New Line) 1,633 -1,501 -47.9% 3 11 11 The Beguiled (2017) Focus Features 725 -216 -23.0% 4 12 10 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Buena Vista 448 -591 -56.9% 8 13 12 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Buena Vista 399 -261 -39.5% 11 14 9 The Mummy (2017) Universal 397 -648 -62.0% 6 15 16 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Fox 277 -130 -31.9% 7 16 13 All Eyez on Me Lionsgate/Summit 195 -404 -67.4% 5 18 20 The Boss Baby Fox 170 -25 -12.8% 16 19 19 Megan Leavey Bleecker Street 162 -92 -36.2% 6 20 21 Baywatch Paramount 156 -37 -19.2% 8 21 24 Everything, Everything Warner Bros. 131 -10 -7.1% 9 22 22 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword Warner Bros. 121 -34 -21.9% 10 24 23 The Book of Henry Focus Features 71 -83 -53.9% 5 25 30 It Comes At Night A24 57 -33 -36.7% 6 26 35 The Exception A24 44 -4 -8.3% 7 28 37 The Lost City of Z Bleecker Street 20 -18 -47.4% 14 30 61 The Lovers A24 5 -1 -16.7% 11 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 I think SM3 unadjusted is an obtainable goal for SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyChrono Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Quote Wonder Woman Warner Bros. 2,744 -347 -11.2% 7 That WW theater hold! 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeQ Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 hour ago, YourMother said: Homecoming held better than Ant Man for first Wednesday. Technically yes, but you're really splitting hairs here (34.2% drop for Spidey vs. 34.8% drop for Ant-Man). Essentially the same drop. To the thread: Spidey may be performing 'normally' or 'as expected' so far, but that doesn't mean that it is doing poorly. There isn't anything so far, from my perspective, to suggest that Spidey will necessarily be unusually frontloaded in the long run. It was frontloaded on its opening weekend with huge previews, so I do believe there will inevitably be a large drop this weekend because of this (I'm expecting a 55+% drop). But that's how comic book films usually roll due to the high up-front demand. Spidey, like Ant-Man and like Guardians, could go on to have a very leggy run. Or not. But let's take it by week. Just my two cents. Peace, Mike 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 58 minutes ago, grey ghost said: Interesting. At this rate I'd be satisfied with anything above 300 m and very happy with anything over 325 m. Your going to be very happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 32 minutes ago, AndyChrono said: That WW theater hold! Its still on in my local but there is only one shoing on some days at 10:30am which seems a bit useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kswiston Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 38 minutes ago, AndyChrono said: That WW theater hold! A few weeks back, someone here thought that it would stay in 3k+ venues through next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 minute ago, kswiston said: A few weeks back, someone here thought that it would stay in 3k+ venues through next weekend. That was me...but I said it would lose 3K next weekend...too many movies opening... Probably would have kept 3K this weekend, but Big Sick is performing too well to wait to expand...next weekend, I expect WW to lose its most screens so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said: You guys are so funny...declaring something dead 24 hours before it ever happens...while I agree it's unlikely, I've learned to never rule out anything til we actually see some numbers roll in...like Friday and Saturday's numbers:)... I mean, I'd also check 1st showings for Friday/Saturday...number of showings for this weekend vs last weekend, how prime showings are doing, etc...and not just see a Wed number and say "out". For the record, Spidey is 2/3 sold for cheap Saturday morning at 1 of my locals already...I haven't done any other checking (but I was comparing this to Apes cheap Saturday show, which is not yet as well sold, but I wanted to see where Apes was:)...but if I was gonna declare an impossibility, I'd probably have done that 1st:)... Stop it lol. Regardless of the weekday numbers Spidey was never going to gross 60 million in its second weekend LOL there is no way in hell it's going to drop less than 50% especially since it grossed 15 million on Thursday previews. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 (edited) 11 minutes ago, baumer said: Stop it lol. Regardless of the weekday numbers Spidey was never going to gross 60 million in its second weekend LOL there is no way in hell it's going to drop less than 50% especially since it grossed 15 million on Thursday previews. But it's like folks never learn...there's no absolute certainty til it happens...we had Get Out's run, then Beauty's run, and then Wonder Woman's run...and we keep saying "this is impossible" way before the runs ever happen... Now, I'm not saying Spidey is getting $60M. It's pretty unlikely. But there was a certain bettor who spent weeks heckling over a WW $400M bet b/c he was so sure that kinda run was impossible b/c of the opening days...and we see how that turned out. It's like history just keeps on repeating... You'd think we'd learn to say "it's highly unlikely" vs "never, ever ever...it's a sure bet...it can't EVER do that..." b/c the BO always has surprises...anyone who's followed it more than 2 months knows that... It's not just a stats numbers game where we can look things up and ALWAYS know...sometimes more than that matters... Edited July 13, 2017 by TwoMisfits 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zakiyyah6 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 But it's not just highly unlikely it flat-out has no chance of happening. Stop comparing this movie to Get out and Wonder Woman. Its run has been nothing like theirs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 (edited) It's like I'm talking to a wall... All I know for certain is that the Wed after open, WW had dropped 60.5% her 1st Mon, rose only 22% her 1st Tues, and dropped 35% her 1st Wed...and the rest is history... And that was one month ago...and I called its surprise on first Tuesday after seeing it when practically every board member thought I was nuts. And stayed with it even as it looked "normal" its 1st few days...b/c I didn't look at only numbers...I looked at the movie's qualities, its competition, its audience potential, its WOM, its likely screen holds, etc... Having seen Spidey and seeing how his competition is lining up, I don't think it's got that huge a surprise in it, but it's really good, so I don't discount that I could be in the 99% who could look like an idiot in 3-4 weeks if I said "Yo, Spidey can't make XXX dollars...it's impossible and I know b/c it's FIRST WEEK WEDNESDAY." If Emoji (and Nut Job) are awful, and DM3 doesn't show its legs this weekend, I'd be that idiot, b/c Spidey would slot right in to their box office potential for the entire end of summer and beginning of fall... Edited July 13, 2017 by TwoMisfits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: It's like I'm talking to a wall... All I know for certain is that the Wed after open, WW had dropped 60.5% her 1st Mon, rose only 22% her 1st Tues, and dropped 35% her 1st Wed...and the rest is history... And that was one month ago...and I called its surprise on first Tuesday after seeing it when practically every board member thought I was nuts. And stayed with it even as it looked "normal" its 1st few days...b/c I didn't look at only numbers...I looked at the movie's qualities, its competition, its audience potential, its WOM, its likely screen holds, etc... Having seen Spidey and seeing how his competition is lining up, I don't think it's got that huge a surprise in it, but it's really good, so I don't discount that I could be in the 99% who could look like an idiot in 3-4 weeks if I said "Yo, Spidey can't make XXX dollars...it's impossible and I know b/c it's FIRST WEEK WEDNESDAY." If Emoji (and Nut Job) are awful, and DM3 doesn't show its legs this weekend, I'd be that idiot, b/c Spidey would slot right in to their box office potential for the entire end of summer and beginning of fall... @TwoMisfits will see if the wall cracks or breakdown by EOW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zakiyyah6 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Please crunch the Thur, Friday, Sat and Sun numbers and show me how the film will make 60mil? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 The one massive benefit Spider-Man has is double features back to back with Emoji Movie and Dark Tower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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