Zakiyyah6 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Spidey is doing fine, acknowledging that it will not do 60mil this weekend is not a slight against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrimFandango Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, YourMother said: The one massive benefit Spider-Man has is double features back to back with Emoji Movie and Dark Tower. A SM:H/Emoji double feature would be like eating a steak-and-slop dinner combo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said: Please crunch the Thur, Friday, Sat and Sun numbers and show me how the film will make 60mil? 9.6m Thurs 16.3m Fri 25.2m Sat 19.3m Sun 60.8m second weekend Mirroring WW's second weekend, taking in account Spider-Man: Homecoming's WOM, theaters count, Wednesday numbers, the fact that we are in July, competition next to what is very much a family/ date film against what is very much a cult sci-fi endeavor. Spidey got this. Wed numbers made me even more confident than I was past Monday. So far, literally nothing has affected my theory that Homecoming is going to mirror WW's run. It's still on course for a $60m weekend, considering Wed numbers, probably the same going with this Thurs numbers. These Wed numbers are great for the film, and even @baumer should admit that what I'm saying is indeed a possibility, regardless if he thinks it's unlikely. Let's see if me and @TwoMisfits are once again right. This year, I was spot on with WW and close with GotG Vol. 2. Let's see. Edited July 14, 2017 by iJackSparrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said: Spidey is doing fine, acknowledging that it will not do 60mil this weekend is not a slight against it. It's not thait it's a slight, it's short-sighted tho. Literally nothing about these weekdays numbers tell a story about Spider-Man not being able to achieve that. It's holding better than WW at same period, it's likely to keep the trend this Thursday and same for the weekend. It might not reach $60m, but it will be way closer than most here seem to think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zakiyyah6 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 (edited) Thanks for the numbers. They are not going to happen but I appreciate that you answered my post. Personally I don't believe it's getting close to 60mil either. Edited July 13, 2017 by Zakiyyah6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 (edited) 9 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said: 9.6m Thurs 16.3m Fri 25.2m Sat 19.3m Sun 60.8m second weekend Mirroring WW's second weekend, taking in account Spider-Man: Homecoming's WOM, theaters count, Wednesday numbers, the fact that we are in July, competition next to what is very much a family/ date film against what is very much a cult sci-fi endeavor. Spidey got this. Wed numbers made me even more confident than I was past Monday. So far, literally nothing about my theory that Homecoming is going to mirror WW's run didn't happen. These Wed numbers are great for the film, and even @baumer should admit that what I'm saying is indeed a possibility, regardless if he thinks it's unlikely. Let's see if me and @TwoMisfits are once again right. This year, I was spot on with WW and close with GotG Vol. 2. Let's see. I'm not AS optimistic as you are, (since I'd need a pretty optimistic number, not a realistic one, for me to get to $60M...and I posted my numbers on Monday for anyone looking:), but I'm not gonna rule out your gut nor ruin my hopes at least until the weekend actually happens:)... Edited July 13, 2017 by TwoMisfits 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: I'm not AS optimistic as you are, (since I'd need an pretty optimistic number, not a realistic one, for me to get to $60M...and I posted my numbers on Monday for anyone looking:), but I'm not gonna rule out your gut nor ruin my hopes at least until the weekend actually happens:)... I'm actually being sort of consciously restraining myself of going with slight bigger numbers. I believe in a stronger Sat than I've posted here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said: 9.6m Thurs 16.3m Fri 25.2m Sat 19.3m Sun 60.8m second weekend Mirroring WW's second weekend, taking in account Spider-Man: Homecoming's WOM, theaters count, Wednesday numbers, the fact that we are in July, competition next to what is very much a family/ date film against what is very much a cult sci-fi endeavor. Spidey got this. Wed numbers made me even more confident than I was past Monday. So far, literally nothing about my theory that Homecoming is going to mirror WW's run didn't happen. These Wed numbers are great for the film, and even @baumer should admit that what I'm saying is indeed a possibility, regardless if he thinks it's unlikely. Let's see if me and @TwoMisfits are once again right. This year, I was spot on with WW and close with GotG Vol. 2. Let's see. I hope and wish you are correct, Im IN your 60M+ club, so if anyone I'm one of the one who want it to happen. But I truly don't see it at this point, since the weekdays are too weak. Typical summer tent pole as big as this have huge weekday number (due to all schools are out), the weekend % increase will be smaller than other seasons. It's no use comparing it to WW, she's just another beast, more of event movie. That 9.6M for today I think is too optimistic at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Subzero said: I hope and wish you are correct, Im IN your 60M+ club, so if anyone I'm one of the one who want it to happen. But I truly don't see it at this point, since the weekdays are too weak. Typical summer tent pole as big as this have huge weekday number (due to all schools are out), the weekend % increase will be smaller than other seasons. It's no use comparing it to WW, she's just another beast, more of event movie. That 9.6M for today I think is too optimistic at this point. Spider-Man: Homecoming is performing ahead of WW on its first weekdays and has a real shot of keeping the same trend during the weekend. Yes, WW is a very important and great film. SMH in the other hand is a great film, with the same kind of WW's reception and arguably the best take on Spider-Man with a John Hughes vibe that screams family/date movie. I don't see how its weekdays are weak at all. I expect SMH to hold it better than Vol. 2 because it's a better film and at same time with the same family appeal, with kids out of school and the wom catching up, I'm expecting to see the same that happened with WW: the wom about the film being great has catch on and the film will have a stronger than expected second weekend exactly because it didn't perform as well as it could on its first weekend. That's the same reason I see why WW is having such a great run, btw. It's not that it's just an important film, it's that i'ts a great film. I firmly believe that Spidey got this, and might even go for something like 62m second weekend. Let's see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 $60m 2nd weekend is insanely high! That is roughly less than 48% drop! If WW's phenomenal hold never happened in the past 15 years, I can't find any reason that I should take it to believe that is going to repeat in just less than 2 months..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: $60m 2nd weekend is insanely high! That is roughly less than 48% drop! If WW's phenomenal hold never happened in the past 15 years, I can't find any reason that I should take it to believe that is going to repeat in just less than 2 months..... The irony is that WW's phenomenal hold happened last month and Spidey is literally REPLICATING IT so far, when it comes to weekdays numbers. I think both films will enjoy very similar performances exactly because it happened so close to each other and both are enjoying very similar receptions. Let's see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeQ Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 (edited) 34 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said: Spider-Man: Homecoming is performing ahead of WW on its first weekdays and has a real shot of keeping the same trend during the weekend. Yes, WW is a very important and great film. SMH in the other hand is a great film, with the same kind of WW's reception and arguably the best take on Spider-Man with a John Hughes vibe that screams family/date movie. I don't see how its weekdays are weak at all. I expect SMH to hold it better than Vol. 2 because it's a better film and at same time with the same family appeal, with kids out of school and the wom catching up, I'm expecting to see the same that happened with WW: the wom about the film being great has catch on and the film will have a stronger than expected second weekend exactly because it didn't perform as well as it could on its first weekend. That's the same reason I see why WW is having such a great run, btw. It's not that it's just an important film, it's that i'ts a great film. I firmly believe that Spidey got this, and might even go for something like 62m second weekend. Let's see. I think your comparison to Wonder Woman isn't the right choice. Wonder Woman opened at the beginning of June, when there are still schools in session in the US, and schools in Canada were all in session as they have their summer holiday during the months of July and August. Wonder Woman also skewed older than Spidey does. Thus, there is a reason Spidey is outdoing Wonder Woman's dailies this week - it is July and it skews much younger. Also with your prediction broken down per day to hit $60 million, you’re giving Spidey the following breakdown for drops/increases: THU: -3% FRI: +70% SAT: +55% SUN: -23% Let's compare those to other July comic book film openers: Ant-Man (July 2015) THU: -8% FRI: +54% SAT: +36% SUN: -21% Captain America (July 2011) THU: -6.5% FRI: +45% SAT: +26% SUN: -22% And August comic book film openers: Guardians of the Galaxy (August 2014) THU: -13% FRI: +61% SAT: + 38% SUN: -24% Suicide Squad (August 2016) THU: -16% FRI: +60% SAT: +34% SUN: -26% If your breakdown happens, I will be amazed! I genuinely hope it happens for your sake and for the incredible surprise that it would be for everyone Peace, Mike Edited July 14, 2017 by MikeQ 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaze Heatnix Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 I've just watched Homecoming again, and it was better this time. Movie felt smaller than the first time. I hope it performs really well, so we can have several articles talking about Wonder Spidey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeneedtotalkaboutKevin Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 5 hours ago, YourMother said: It was dead when Kevin jinxed Homecoming. Ever since the 2/6-4/6 weekend, I have stanned for the following movies: The Mummy , Cars 3, TF 5, Despicable 3, Spider-man: Homecoming , now my eyes are all on the apes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 17 minutes ago, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said: Ever since the 2/6-4/6 weekend, I have stanned for the following movies: The Mummy , Cars 3, TF 5, Despicable 3, Spider-man: Homecoming , now my eyes are all on the apes! Maybe the jinx jumped Kevins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 We will have a flashback to WONDR's 2nd weekend this FSS and truly be able appreciate what it pulled off after a 103.25 ow. Ditto next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyChrono Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, MikeQ said: I think your comparison to Wonder Woman isn't the right choice. Wonder Woman opened at the beginning of June, when there are still schools in session in the US, and schools in Canada were all in session as they have their summer holiday during the months of July and August. Wonder Woman also skewed older than Spidey does. Thus, there is a reason Spidey is outdoing Wonder Woman's dailies this week - it is July and it skews much younger. Pretty much this. With half of schools still in session at the time, WW was going to take a bigger Sunday-Monday drop than something opening in July. Also, there was an NBA Finals Game (the only competitive one) on Wednesday of that week, so WW probably would have held stronger if it was a clean schedule. It did compensate with a great Thursday hold though, so that might actually be the number to watch for when it comes to SMH. If it can drop less than 5% like WW has for most of it's Thursdays, then perhaps the Spidey legs are the real deal. Edited July 14, 2017 by AndyChrono 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Well I'm going to be Kurt Russell from Tango & Cash to @MikeQs Sylvester Stallone from Tango & Cash in the courtroom scene when Stallone gave a very impassioned speech that mirrors Mike's very kind and concise breakdown of why I jack will more than likely be wrong. I on the other hand, like Kurt Russell will be a little bit more blunt. Theres not a remote chance in hell that Spider-Man makes anywhere close to 60 million this weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 2 hours ago, iJackSparrow said: Spider-Man: Homecoming is performing ahead of WW on its first weekdays and has a real shot of keeping the same trend during the weekend. Yes, WW is a very important and great film. SMH in the other hand is a great film, with the same kind of WW's reception and arguably the best take on Spider-Man with a John Hughes vibe that screams family/date movie. I don't see how its weekdays are weak at all. I expect SMH to hold it better than Vol. 2 because it's a better film and at same time with the same family appeal, with kids out of school and the wom catching up, I'm expecting to see the same that happened with WW: the wom about the film being great has catch on and the film will have a stronger than expected second weekend exactly because it didn't perform as well as it could on its first weekend. That's the same reason I see why WW is having such a great run, btw. It's not that it's just an important film, it's that i'ts a great film. I firmly believe that Spidey got this, and might even go for something like 62m second weekend. Let's see. One anecdotal note that leads me to think that this is catching on to families (like PG-13s do after parents get the "go ahead".). Families seek out cheap days and showings. The one local that does cheap Tuesday has already sold half of its Tuesday evening seats for Spidey at its 6, 7, and 8 pm shows (so about 175 tickets of 350 seats). By today. These aren't campers or sports teams or teens...these are probably families and seniors seeing the weekend 1st cheap shows don't have good seats anymore (and they don't - they have 2 rows left each on Sat and Sun) and so buying for the next chance they get to see the movie in "good" seats. So, there will be demand from these folks to continue to find seats for weeks b/c for them, they'd rather save a few bucks even if it means waiting a few days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 With APES out, I think it's going to affect Spidey Thursday figure. Best case for Spidey I think is around -8% drop roughly (9.1M), worse case is -15% (8.42M) On a Side Note: WW is still the top 5 on MT ...dang .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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