DUNKIRK WEEKEND THREAD | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS | Official estimates Dunkirk 50.5M, GT 30.3M, SMH 22M, Apes 20.4M, Val 17M | Wonder Woman is the new summer champ with 389M total | Summer Sale is Live!

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

1 minute ago, Emperor Tele-Limai said:

I'll take the (bold?) (stupid?) stance that I think DUNKIRK will be really frontloaded in terms of previews/weekend. 

How much so? Certainly not under 40m? I don't think it's a stupid position to take, it very well could be.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I want to friendly remind not to ignore the Harry Styles factor.

He's got a big fan base that will rush to see this. May front load the weekend.

Sorry, ignoring it. Just as I ignored the Zandaya factor for Spidey.

[a2k]

BAD MOMS was front-loaded over the OW (but had great legs overall) and did 2m previews / 23.8 OW.

 

Same gives GIRLS TRIP 20 ow.

[That One Girl]

Okay let's try and look at this from a best case scenario perspective.  If this follows Tarzan it gets to a respectable 25.6M.  I will now use this comp over and over since it calms me down more  

[CJohn]

Valerian looking at 15M OW or so lmao.

I am slightly disappointed with Girls Trip number, I was expecting above Bad Moms for the previews. Should still do 25M OW.

Dunkirk looking good for 45M+.

[Jonwo]

I imagine Dunkirk would have done the same numbers had WB released in say October but I guess they didn't think Blade Runner would do well in a summer slot and I imagine Nolan can dictate which date he would prefer his film to go into.

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:

How much so? Certainly not under 40m? I don't think it's a stupid position to take, it very well could be.

 

Under 45m, I guess?

[marveldcfox]

17 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Wait...

 

GITS got 1.8M...

 

 

 

 

 

...fuck

That is based on a fairly well known property with comics, animated movies, toys and stuff. It also had an A list star.

 

Valerian is based on an obscure french comic book that the US audience hardly knows anything about. I think it did okay considering that. Then again maybe sci-fi nerds and Besson fans flocked to the theatre so it may still be frontloaded. The problem is that the east coast is not even remotely interested in this film. It seems to be doing better in West coast and some pockets of central USA.

Oh and this didn't have Imax. I think in August with Imax  it would easily have done 2.5+ previews and 30+ ow with that. Besson has only himself to blame for that.

Edited July 21, 2017 by marveldcfox

[FantasticBeasts]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

Sorry, ignoring it. Just as I ignored the Zandaya factor for Spidey.

Zendaya who????

Are you really comparing her fan base to Harry Styles'??

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

Okay let's try and look at this from a best case scenario perspective.  If this follows Tarzan it gets to a respectable 25.6M.  I will now use this comp over and over since it calms me down more  

I'd be shocked. Thinking just over $20M OW DOM.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, Emperor Tele-Limai said:

 

Under 45m, I guess?

Yeah, I'm thinking somewhere in the mid-low 40s is as low as it will go at this point. Could reach as high as 60m though (which would be astounding).

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, Emperor Tele-Limai said:

 

Under 45m, I guess?

Get this fool out of of here. This ain't no sunshine and rainbows

[XO21]

 

Judging from the success of his solo album stateside, H Styles's factor is secondary to say the least 

Edited July 21, 2017 by XO21

[That One Girl]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

Get this fool out of of here. This ain't no sunshine and rainbows

 

Tele's the complete opposite of sunshine and rainbows.  Some say his soul is made out of dark clouds, bats and a tar-like substance

[Zakiyyah6]

6 minutes ago, Emperor Tele-Limai said:

I'll take the (bold?) (stupid?) stance that I think DUNKIRK will be really frontloaded in terms of previews/weekend. 

I think it's going to be a little frontloaded because of Nolan's fanbase.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Sorry, ignoring it. Just as I ignored the Zandaya factor for Spidey.

To be a little bit of a devils-advocate:

A. Styles is simply much bigger/well-known than Zendaya

B. It's affecting a much smaller OW than SMH, so the impact would be bigger if it exists.

I'm not necessarily saying that I'm convinced either.

Edited July 21, 2017 by Jayhawk

[Ethan Hunt]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Sorry, ignoring it. Just as I ignored the Zandaya factor for Spidey.

Zandaya and Styles aren't really comparable. I'm not even sure she has a fanbase. My gf said several months ago that she'll see the movie because of him

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, Emperor Tele-Limai said:

 

Under 45m, I guess?

You're just saying that for the Summer Game question, aren't you?  

 

 

[That One Girl]

I had it at 47.5M  

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

How much so? Certainly not under 40m? I don't think it's a stupid position to take, it very well could be.

 

Frontloading similar to the new Spidey would mean $41m weekend. Frontloading similar to TDKR would be $29m. Obviously that second scenario seems impossible. I would think 40ish is pretty close to a lock.