WEEKEND THREAD | Weekend actuals (pg. 87 onward) - Dunkirk: 26.6M; The Emoji Movie: 24.5M; Girls Trip: 19.6M; Atomic Blonde: 18.2M; SM Homecoming: 13.2M; War For The POTA: 10.4M; Despicable Me 3: 7.4M; Valerian: 6.3M; Baby Driver: 3.9M; Wonder Woman: 3.3M

[Mojoguy]

considering it's a non sequel and didn't face any major competition this weekend it is not really a good hold. Not bad either thought. Just eh

Those Nolanites that rushed out to see Dunkirk on OW though...

[Travod]

200m dream ded?

[MrPink]

Just now, Travod said:

200m dream ded?

 

Needed to be at about 30m weekend to hit 200m, think it's 99% dead. Interstellar looks about the ceiling to me. I think 170-175 is a good target.

Edited July 29, 2017 by MrPink

[Barnack]

16 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

I like Charlize but this proves she's not much of a box office draw. The promo for AB was INSANE. 

I don't know about that it is opening above Keanu Reeve John Wick (14.4) that had better review and an high concept and not that far than some Denzel action movie flick.

 

A movie like Haywire (big name director, bigger assemble co-cast with Fassbender, McGregor, paxton, Tatum, Banderas, Douglas) good reviews, did 8m it's opening weekend on 2,349 theater. Didn't have a real draw in the lead.

 

Spy genre outside comedy is not easy either.

 

Man From Uncle (franchise name, big budget, director, cast) did 13.4 million on 3,639 screen, Spielberg/Hanks bride of spies did 15.3m ow (december but still), Pine Jack Ryan did 15.4, Cruise Jack reacher did 15.2 the sequel 22.8

 

Has for AB promo having been insane, really ? It was a Focus feature release, it did get the best screen in the multiplex I saw it, over Dunkirk second weekend thought

 

http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/the-emoji-movie-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1202505688/

Est. Lifetime TV Spend: $18.45M

 

Seem really standard, nothing crazy like Live by night or Moneyball.

 

I think that for a focus release with that type of theater, those reviews, not much of a hook except here Theron John Wicking, it is a solid opening weekend and show some drawing power, I suspect if we get cinemascore result they will point toward that.

 

 

Edited July 29, 2017 by Barnack

[Mojoguy]

Spidey is going to end up having average legs.

2.5X multiplier I guess?

[XO21]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Spidey is going to end up having average legs.

2.5X multiplier I guess?

It won't miss 2.6-2.7. Overpredictions pointed at 2.9-3.0..that's good

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Spidey is going to end up having average legs.

2.5X multiplier I guess?

That would be 292.5m

 

It's going to do around $13.5m this w/e for around a $278m total - so the minimum I see is 2.6 - 2.65 legs and with better holds this weeks and negligble competition coming 2.7-2.8 is very possible

[KeepItU25071906]

24 minutes ago, Travod said:

200m dream ded?

sad, but true

[dxmatrixdt]

terrible # for Valerian.  If it does not increase huge on Saturday it will likely be a flop.

 

Emoji Movie makes 25.86 if it follows Ice Age 5 trajectory with Thursday previews removed.

Atomic Blonde makes 18.63 if it increases 15% Saturday and declines 25% Sunday. (thurs previews removed)

Girls Trip makes 20.12 with a 33.33% decrease in PTA from last weekend (Thursday previews removed). 65+ total

Dunkirk should clear 27 million if it gets +40% Saturday. 102 total. 

Spider-Man with 13.571 if it follows last weeks trajectory with a total of 278.48.  Looking good for 8 million upcoming weekdays

Apes with 10.21 if it follows last weeks trajectory with a total of 118.52.  Should get 5 million weekdays.

Despicable Me 3 with 8.16 if it follows last weeks trajectory with a total of 230.86  Should get 5.7 weekdays.

 

 

Edited July 29, 2017 by Matrix4You

[ThomasNicole]

17 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Spidey is going to end up having average legs.

2.5X multiplier I guess?

No

[Mojoguy]

That would be 292.5m

It's going to do around $13.5m this w/e for around a $278m total - so the minimum I see is 2.6 - 2.65 legs and with better holds this weeks and negligble competition coming 2.7-2.8 is very possible

Yeah, SONY will definitely want SMH to reach $300M so looking like 2.6X multiplier at least.

[dxmatrixdt]

I wonder if Boss Baby took a hit as a result of Emoji. 

Does anyone have numbers for Megan Leavey???

[Mojoguy]

I wonder if Boss Baby took a hit as a result of Emoji.

Boss Baby just came out on home video last Tuesday, so it doesn't really matter anymore.

[picores]

Oh man, those Apes cant catch a break. 

[MikeQ]

Using RTH’s Friday numbers…

 

Holdover — FRI # / Increase from THU / Drop from Last FRI

Dunkirk — 7.8 / +50% / -60%
Girls Trip — 6.3 / +98% / -46%
Spider-Man: Homecoming — 3.9 / +40% / -39%
War for the Planet of the Apes — 2.9 / +44% / -51%
Despicable Me 3 — 2.4 / +23% / -37%
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets — 1.8 / +36% / -72%

 

Assuming that Friday number is correct for Girls Trip, that is a stunning Friday increase, and only a 46% drop from its opening Friday.

 

Everything else seems to have somewhat deflated Friday increases, likely due to the strong Thursday holds, but otherwise they seem to make sense in context. Dunkirk and Apes increased somewhat more on Friday than the rest, reflecting their older audiences. Spider-Man’s Friday increase is a little less than it increased last Friday. Valerian's Friday increase is fine, but it has dropped so much during that week that its Friday-to-Friday drop is pretty atrocious.

 

But man, that Friday increase for Girls Trip… wow.

 

Peace,

Mike

[TalismanRing]

13 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

 

Yeah, SONY will definitely want SMH to reach $300M so looking like 2.6X multiplier at least.

Sony doesn't have to do anything to make that happen. 

 

As Matrix pointed out SM looks to do about $8m weekdays next week which means going into next w/e it will already be at $286m and after that w/e probably around $294-5m and be near $300m going into the w/e after that.

[picores]

Lame weekend overall. Girls Trip apart, only good news seems for Spidey and Gru pulling solid holds. Valerian fading as expected.

 

And thank god Emoji is not getting number 1 for the weekend 

[dxmatrixdt]

SECOND RUN THEATER QUESTION

 

Last week, 2 of my local county-wide second run theaters got converted overnight to regular showing theaters.  Their brand was changed to AMC CLASSICS.  Has this happened to anyone else?  Is there a cutback going on for second run theaters.  Also, the regular second run theater has been $2 for years and now it is suddenly $5

 

@Rth Homecoming@EmpireCity How does the second run discount theaters count towards overall grosses.  When a movie makes $12.75 a showing, does this money go to the studio?

Edited July 29, 2017 by Matrix4You

[picores]

3 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Using RTH’s Friday numbers…

 

Holdover — FRI # / Increase from THU / Drop from Last FRI

Dunkirk — 7.8 / +50% / -60%
Girls Trip — 6.3 / +98% / -46%
Spider-Man: Homecoming — 3.9 / +40% / -39%
War for the Planet of the Apes — 2.9 / +44% / -51%
Despicable Me 3 — 2.4 / +23% / -37%
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets — 1.8 / +36% / -72%

 

Assuming that Friday number is correct for Girls Trip, that is a stunning Friday increase, and only a 46% drop from its opening Friday.

 

Everything else seems to have somewhat deflated Friday increases, likely due to the strong Thursday holds, but otherwise they seem to make sense in context. Dunkirk and Apes increased somewhat more on Friday than the rest, reflecting their older audiences. Spider-Man’s Friday increase is a little less than it increased last Friday. Valerian's Friday increase is fine, but it has dropped so much during that week that its Friday-to-Friday drop is pretty atrocious.

 

But man, that Friday increase for Girls Trip… wow.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Great work mate. 

[dxmatrixdt]

At least in 2017 we get a Christopher Nolan film at #1 for 2 weeks in a row.  Maybe a 10% chance it happens again next week which is good enough for hope!!