Weekend Thread. Dark Tower 19.5...Dunkirk 17.6....Emoji 12.3...Girls Trip 11.4 not sure what page| Not the sex thread

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

So...which one has a bad release date next June/July:

 

Movies that have a bad release date according to me are in red, the average release dates are in violet, and the good ones are in blue.

 

JUNE
• Deadpool 2 (Fox) - 6/1 comedy is a major attraction and this month has enough movies which offer humor. this one being huge may deflect all of them though.
• Ocean's 8 (WB) - 6/8
• The Incredibles 2 (BV) - 6/15 ... JW2 will attract families. I2, being old IP, also depends on adults, and DP2, O8, Barbie, Tag all have comedy as selling point for adults.
• Jurassic World 2 (Uni.) - 6/22 ... JW had IO OW in 2nd weekend. Here I2's 2nd weekend in OW is better. Open 2nd weekend. Then AM2's comp padded by ID holidays.
• Barbie (Sony) - 6/29
• Tag (WB) - 6/29

 

JULY
• Untitled Next Purge Chapter (Uni.) - 7/4
• Ant-Man and the Wasp (BV) - 7/6
• The Spy Who Dumped Me (LGF) - 7/6 ... comedy film between AM2 and HT3
• Hotel Transylvania 3 (Sony) - 7/13 ... no direct comp but so many strong holdovers. on the other hand could leg it like DM3.
• The Nun (WB (NL)) - 7/13 ... horror film is unique but also seems dumped here in a crowded couple of months. No place in Aug/Sep?
• Skyscraper (Uni.) - 7/13 ... Dwayne Johnson action thriller with Alita and MI6 in 2nd and 3rd weekends, and going against a horror film (teens/20s crowd).
• Alita: Battle Angel (Fox) - 7/20
• Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! (Uni.) - 7/20
• Mission: Impossible 6 (Par.) - 7/27

That depends...how bad are the sequels?  I think Barbie and Tag should move off each other's weekend and try to find another "bad sequel fatigue" time to release...that date worked great for Baby Driver, but he got to be the only "premier" concept...I'd move one to May 18 and try to hit the weekend where there's really nothing but a horror flick...Barbie might work best there b/c family movies have done pretty well in the spot...and it gives it 4 weeks to Incredibles and 2 weeks after Avengers (which will have burned off all the desire)...but it depends if Barbie will be a family movie or a sardonic cynical movie on the toy...

 

I mean, I can guarantee 1/2 of these coming sequels will not be well received...which ones?  I don't know yet, b/c I haven't seen the trailers...but I could guess a few...

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

328 dom gives 2.8x. Can't see much more than that. 2.9x needs 339 dom.

But yeah, 2.8 is a solid multiplier. July does ask us to be patient I guess.

 

July movie , 1st weekend drop, 2nd weekend drop, final multiplier :

ant-man  56.5%   48.6%   3.15x

minions   57.4%   53.5%   2.9x

spidey     62.2%   49.9%   2.8x

Depends how long theaters want to keep the only supers around...supers are really good sellers late in their runs (see GOTG 2 and WW) and the family movies of this month are all crashing and burning, so theaters might just let this stay around much longer than anyone thought (ala WW)...I'd say we could see this still in 1K theaters til Ninjago on 9/22...and that's a really long time to add on BO funds...

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

I think Cameron produced/written (at least the trailers will sell this aspect) tentpole is a good competition, and possibly big threat to some movie's legs (aka Action/Thriller Skyscraper's 2nd weekend, which will also face MI6 in 3rd weekend and so may loose lots of theaters if it has back to back big drops)

 

Original scifi is a tough sell but Cameron's name makes a difference.

I think the word "original" in that sea of sequels is gonna be the biggest difference...but Cameron is also quite the advantage...

[filmnerdjamie]

Just now, Spaghetti of 1000 Planets said:

MINIONS was awful, but Despicable Me is definitely one of those kids franchise that prove reasonably watchable with adults. The slapstick based humor and world building definitely allows it to build an audience overseas; it doesn't lose too much once you put everything in a foreign language. The franchise numbers have been undoubtedly impressive.

Despicable Me, like Shrek before it, was a genuine surprise and a highlight in a most shitty summer. In fact it's amazing how many have forgotten just how popular the ogre was 10 years ago. Goes to show how one shitty film (Shrek the Third) can sink a ship.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Despicable Me, like Shrek before it, was a genuine surprise and a highlight in a most shitty summer. In fact it's amazing how many have forgotten just how popular the ogre was 10 years ago. Goes to show how one shitty film (Shrek the Third) can sink a ship.

 

Shrek the Turd is a well-earned nickname. 

[WrathOfHan]

Shrek 5 will be massive when it happens. Memes will literally drive a movie's box office.

[grim22]

14 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

That depends...how bad are the sequels?  I think Barbie and Tag should move off each other's weekend and try to find another "bad sequel fatigue" time to release...that date worked great for Baby Driver, but he got to be the only "premier" concept...I'd move one to May 18 and try to hit the weekend where there's really nothing but a horror flick...Barbie might work best there b/c family movies have done pretty well in the spot...and it gives it 4 weeks to Incredibles and 2 weeks after Avengers (which will have burned off all the desire)...but it depends if Barbie will be a family movie or a sardonic cynical movie on the toy...

 

I mean, I can guarantee 1/2 of these coming sequels will not be well received...which ones?  I don't know yet, b/c I haven't seen the trailers...but I could guess a few...

 

Barbie should move to Mothers Day weekend, will guarantee at least a 40M OW based on brand awareness and the Mother-Daughter matinees.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Shrek the Turd is a well-earned nickname. 

2.65x multiplier in an era before these early Thu previews were a thing. Truly a turd.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Shrek 5 will be massive when it happens. Memes will literally drive a movie's box office.

 

Bee Movie 2 over 200M domestic.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

Barbie should move to Mothers Day weekend, will guarantee at least a 40M OW based on brand awareness and the Mother-Daughter matinees.

I'd agree, except Mother's Day already has Life of the Party (the obvious women comedy) and is only one week after Avengers...maybe Mother's Day 2019 if it's running behind:)...

 

EDIT: Plus, schools start exiting around May 15 (specifically the weekend after Mother's Day), so might as well wait for some of the Florida and southern kids to be out of school...

Edited August 6, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[filmnerdjamie]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

Lol, I love Henry and his mustache but I just wonder about franchise fatigue. 

 

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes was well liked and did great numbers yet that didn't stop War from under performing this Summer.

 

Just now, grim22 said:

 

MI6 will underperform to expectations. As Jamie mentioned, the franchise has benefited from not having regular installments out (though that was more tired to Cruise's personal life than a conscious plan.

 

With pre-summer being loaded again, I won't be surprised with a lot of summer movies coming in below expectations.

 

It's funny and all to talk up the stache but Cavill doesn't "open" movies. He didn't explode as Superman like many assumed/thought he would.

 

Back to Mission: Impossible, I do think it is a conscious decision to air them out between each installment. The other big concern is this will be the first time a director returns - as much as I love me some McQuarrie. This is a franchise that has benefited from a different flavor directorially every time out. 

[a2k]

Shrek was such a big thing that Puss in Boots did 149 dom / 405+ OS / 550+ WW without China in 2011 (4 years after Shrek 3 soured the franchise. Shrek 4 redeemed it somewhat in 2010 though).

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=pussinboots12.htm

Edited August 6, 2017 by a2knet

[Mulder]

Remember when people were saying that Homecoming could miss 300. 

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Shrek 5 will be massive when it happens. Memes will literally drive a movie's box office.

 

Shrek is Love, Shrek is Life.

[a2k]

Will they have the guts to name it 5HREK ? 

Edited August 6, 2017 by a2knet

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Remember when people were saying that Homecoming could miss 300. 

Wonder if we should start pulling up those post-2nd weekend Spidey posts like folks did for post-1st weekend WW:)...some of them would be pretty amusing now:)...

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Shrek was such a big thing that Puss in Boots did 149 dom / 405+ OS / 550+ WW without China in 2011 (4 years after Shrek 3 soured the franchise. Shrek 4 redeemed it somewhat in 2010 though).

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=pussinboots12.htm

 

I'm still surprised they cancelled the Puss in Boots sequel. The first movie was well liked and had a very good run. A bit too late now for that.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

5 hours ago, RyneOh1040 said:

Finally watched The Circle yesterday.  What a MESS of a film.  No idea how they got the cast to sign on to such a POS.

Emma Watson only got the role after Alicia Vikander dropped out and as for Tom Hanks, he probably didn't have to work that much and made a few mil. His role is fine, the movie around it just needed to be different. They reshot the ending, it was even worse in the book. If the movie had actually been The Net v2.0 it could have been a reasonably diverting thriller.

 

1 hour ago, Spaghetti of 1000 Planets said:

MINIONS was awful, but Despicable Me is definitely one of those kids franchise that prove reasonably watchable with adults. The slapstick based humor and world building definitely allows it to build an audience overseas; it doesn't lose too much once you put everything in a foreign language. The franchise numbers have been undoubtedly impressive.

I knew Minions would not have the best WOM when my sister and BIL who like everything--I mean, one year they saw Wild Hogs for their anniversary date and looked at this as time well spent--described Minions as "...interesting". 

Edited August 6, 2017 by BoxOfficeChica

[ACSlater]

Best thing about the last MI was Rebecca Ferguson. 

 

If I wasn't married...

[grim22]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Wonder if we should start pulling up those post-2nd weekend Spidey posts like folks did for post-1st weekend WW:)...some of them would be pretty amusing now:)...

 

No different from the 60M 2nd weekend predictions either. It neither went beyond expectations nor fell below them in the end. DM3 and SMH benefited from being the last big family movies.