WEEKEND THREAD | ANNABELLE 2 - $35m; DUNKIRK - $11.4m; NUT JOB 2 - $8.9m; BABY DRIVER Crosses $100m!!!

[WrathOfHan]

I wouldn't be surprised if Mountain Between Us grosses what BOP is predicting. I've gotten the trailer at my last 3 movies, and it never elicits any reactions. Buzz has certainly been in a lull since the trailer premiered. Fox still has time to turn things around though.

[That One Girl]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Mountain Between Us grosses what BOP is predicting. I've gotten the trailer at my last 3 movies, and it never elicits any reactions. Buzz has certainly been in a lull since the trailer premiered. Fox still has time to turn things around though.

 

The trailer actually got really good reactions when I saw it at Girls Trip and my sister wants to see it despite barely seeing any movies.  If it gets good reviews I wouldn't be surprised with a 25/75 run.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, That Floating Guy said:

 

The trailer actually got really good reactions when I saw it at Girls Trip and my sister wants to see it despite barely seeing any movies.  If it gets good reviews I wouldn't be surprised with a 25/75 run.

Maybe if I saw Girls Trip with a lot of people it would've gotten reactions (the other 5 people in the theater had no reactions to it, but they weren't silent for other trailers), but my audience at Annabelle today was about 60/40 in favor of seniors vs younger people and didn't react at all to the trailer. Fox should release another trailer soon to build buzz; maybe after TIFF when they can plug reviews?

Edited August 11, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[DAJK]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Numbers for The Mountain Between Us seem spot on for now. I'll see it just for Elba, Winslet, and the potentially nice winter landscape but I'm not expecting it to be all that great.

My theatre is getting quite a bit of promotional material sent to us from the studio. The standees and posters are good quality as well, which means the studio's actually putting a bit of effort with it, which makes me wonder if they do have some confidence in its performance.

[filmlover]

October altogether looks kinda meh this year outside of Blade Runner in terms of wide releases. Only the Brave/The Snowman/Thank You for Your Service all seem like $35M grossers at best while Suburbicon will probably do a high teens opening at best (before getting wiped out by the storm of heavy hitters coming in November). Happy Death Day has Friday the 13th but eh.

[filmnerdjamie]

3 hours ago, Scubasteve716 said:

Wonder how much the IT preview came into play

I think we're overestimating that honestly. I remember the same conversations to how the Phantom Menace and X-Men trailers were attached to Wing Commander and Mission to Mars respectively. The truth is... it meant dick.

[DAJK]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Mountain Between Us grosses what BOP is predicting. I've gotten the trailer at my last 3 movies, and it never elicits any reactions. Buzz has certainly been in a lull since the trailer premiered. Fox still has time to turn things around though.

It's the first all-around adult drama in a while, as September is filled with action and horror. I think it does Everest numbers domestically (WORST case scenario)

[Ethan Hunt]

Mountain Between Us feels like a 15/45 kinda deal

[That One Girl]

Happy Death Day will do like 25M OW but end with like 50-55M if it's shit (which it probably is)

[Jonwo]

Just now, filmlover said:

October altogether looks kinda meh this year outside of Blade Runner in terms of wide releases. Only the Brave/The Snowman/Thank You for Your Service all seem like $35M grossers at best while Suburbicon will probably do a high teens opening at best (before getting wiped out by the storm of heavy hitters coming in November). Happy Death Day has Friday the 13th but eh.

Don't forget Geostorm which will probably do $40-50m domestic even if it's crap

[DAJK]

Just now, filmlover said:

October altogether looks kinda meh this year outside of Blade Runner in terms of wide releases. Only the Brave/The Snowman/Thank You for Your Service all seem like $35M grossers at best while Suburbicon will probably do a high teens opening at best (before getting wiped out by the storm of heavy hitters coming in November). Happy Death Day has Friday the 13th but eh.

The 20th will be great. We get to see the likely glorious drop of Happy Death Day after Friday the 13th, Geostorm I think will perform decently (or at worst be a nice bomb for us to watch implode) and Only The Brave I think could do Deepwater Horizon numbers if it's good.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, That Floating Guy said:

Happy Death Day will do like 25M OW but end with like 50-55M if it's shit (which it probably is)

It depends how much they play the comedy angle. If it acts serious, then it won't be good and Jigsaw will collapse its legs two weeks later. Also anecdotal, but HDD's trailer had no reactions today while Jigsaw did.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Don't forget Geostorm which will probably do $40-50m domestic even if it's crap

Considering it's probably very expensive (especially after all the extensive reshoots that have occurred as it's been kicked around the release schedule), that would make it qualify as a bomb. 

Edited August 11, 2017 by filmlover

[filmnerdjamie]

Just now, DAJK said:

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-blade-runner-2049-mountain-us-little-pony/

 

Blade Runner - $44/115

Mountain - $8/25

 

Persomally I think the DOM total prediction for 2049 is spot-on, however with a slightly lower OW (37-39M). 

Mountain Between Us on the other hand has a better chance of doing 25M opening weekend than DOM total

Anything $100M+ for Blade Runner still feels way too kind.

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

It depends how much they play the comedy angle. If it acts serious, then it won't be good and Jigsaw will collapse its legs two weeks later. Also anecdotal, but HDD's trailer had no reactions today while Jigsaw did.

Blumhouse. Never underestimate their power

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, DAJK said:

Blumhouse. Never underestimate their power

And that's why I'm currently predicting a Lights Out-type run. I think it'll be fun IF IT EMBRACES THE GOOFINESS.

[Jonwo]

Just now, filmlover said:

Considering it's probably very expensive (especially after all the extensive that have occurred as it's been kicked around the release schedule), that would make it qualify as a bomb. 

Warner Bros probably knows it's a dud but they're only distributing it so it's no real loss to them but it'll be Skydance's second flop of the year.

[Ethan Hunt]

I really hope Geostorm pulls some kind of mega breakout. That would be great

[DAJK]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

And that's why I'm currently predicting a Lights Out-type run. I think it'll be fun IF IT EMBRACES THE GOOFINESS.

The only reason I'm somewhat optimistic on quality is I've learned not to underestimate the "Groundhog Day with a twist" movies lately. Edge of Tomorrow looked derivative from the trailers and kinda bland but it turned out to be one of the best blockbusters of that year. 

Before I Fall looked AWFUL, but was a solid 6.5/10 film.

Even that episode of "Zack and Cody on a cruise ship" that used that premise was one of the only episodes of that spin-off series that was watchable from what I remember.

[That One Girl]

anyway this is a hot button issue so:

 

Blade Runner - 55/154

Mountain Between Us - 25/75

My Little Pony - 28/77

The Foreigner - 8/20

Happy Death Day - 25/55

Marshall - 6/14

Geostorm - 28/67

Only the Brave - 15/50

Same Kind of Different as Me - 3/9

Snowman - 14/35

Boo 2 - 24/60

War with Grandpa - pushed/back

Jigsaw - 30/50

Suburbicon - 19/63

Thank You for Your Service - 15/57