WEEKEND THREAD | ANNABELLE 2 - $35m; DUNKIRK - $11.4m; NUT JOB 2 - $8.9m; BABY DRIVER Crosses $100m!!!

[WrathOfHan]

lol, I ended up being the only person there for the final end credits scene. The usher was asking for my thoughts on the movie as I left  

 

Re trailers: mother!, Jigsaw, and It had the best reactions. mother! and It had dead silence during them and murmurs at the end, while Jigsaw had the younger people chattering about what it was and even the seniors somewhat engaged. If this is opening to 40M, I'll bump It's OW to 60-65M.

12 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

The salt when Annabelle tops 3 consecutive weekends will be amazing.

I don't really care! It's cool that The Conjuring brings so many people out. Stay pressed.

[WrathOfHan]

Oh, and I FINALLY GOT LOGAN LUCKY'S TRAILER!!!

 

....but it was only a 1 minute one advertising the reviews  No in-surance for me.

[YM!]

This may be my Lego Movie bias speaking but I'm starting to think Ninjago will outgross Kingsman 2.

[Zakiyyah6]

25 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Confirmed phenomenal movie with great WOM. What a time to be alive. Hail Sandberg.

Yep. A 100+mil gross here we come.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

This may be my Lego Movie bias speaking but I'm starting to think Ninjago will outgross Kingsman 2.

I think both will open in the $40M range.

[Jonwo]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

This may be my Lego Movie bias speaking but I'm starting to think Ninjago will outgross Kingsman 2.

I think it'll be another 22JS/HTTYD2 situation where the live action sequel beats the animated film

[WrathOfHan]

Annabelle can probably get around a 2.7-2.8x even with some frontloading.

[YM!]

Just now, Jonwo said:

I think it'll be another 22JS/HTTYD2 situation where the live action sequel beats the animated film

If both end up over $150M domestic, I'm good.

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

Brie Larson is obviously slumming it for the paycheck nowadays, Kong Skull Island, Glass Castle, and Captain Marvel.

Is "slumming it" code for becoming an A-list actress?

[grey ghost]

10 minutes ago, YourMother said:

This may be my Lego Movie bias speaking but I'm starting to think Ninjago will outgross Kingsman 2.

Ninjago's gonna flop.

 

Captain Underpants numbers at best.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

47 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

If Brie Larson's best performance is 21 Jump Street, looks like I'm not missing much. 

 

Meh...

 

Are you going to listen Ethan? 

[Jonwo]

Just now, grey ghost said:

Ninjago's gonna flop.

 

Captain Underpants numbers at best.

YourMother will go full Blanks if that happens....

[YM!]

Just now, grey ghost said:

Ninjago's gonna flop.

 

Captain Underpants numbers at best.

There's no real reason I would see under $80M for Ninjago, the family market was so barren this summer.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

52 minutes ago, a2knet said:

The most I can see is around 16 OD/36 OW.

4 + 12 + 12 + 8 (-33%) = 36

 

Then 2.2x gives 79 Dom.

Lol. Yeah, sure. It is going to have the same multiple of the hated first movie, despite playing in summer, having a whole month to itself, plus better reception. It's more likely it reaches $100m than it having a 2.2x.

 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

YourMother will go full Blanks if that happens....

[Jonwo]

Annabelle Creation will make back its budget just from OW, everything else after this is just gravy

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Annabelle can probably get around a 2.7-2.8x even with some frontloading.

conj1 3.28x

anna1 2.27x

conj2 2.53x

 

I don't think anna2 can beat conj2's 2.53x. anna2 gonna have bigger previews but smaller ow than conj2 : not a good formula when it comes to legs.

 

2.3x (same as anna1) means it will have defeated sequlitis and yearly front-loading thanks to superior word of mouth. that itself would be some achievement. 

 

High-end imo 37 ow * 2.3x = 85 dom. (obviously a fantastic number)

 

Low-end probably 32 * 2.1 = 67. (still a great number)

 

Middle of those two gives 34.5 * 2.2 = 76 (between great and fantastic )

[dxmatrixdt]

we should be careful with our Annabelle predictions.  Despite the 4M in previews, WB has it projected at 25M, and with The Nut Job 2 opening in 4,000 theaters and The Glass Castle being oscar bait, the #1 slot should be up for grabs.

[JB33]

Stellar preview number for Annabelle! The movie wasn't perfect, by any means, but the audience is going to love it.

 

Really curious about what the OW will look like. Can it reach $40M? Will it be extremely front loaded on Friday? We'll see.

[dxmatrixdt]

I think nothing opening over Labor Day weekend is really going to kill Annabelle and Nut Job's legs.